Arshad Shaikh analyses the recent study on current trends in population by the Club of Rome. It forecasts a peak in global population by the middle of the 21st century followed by a rapid decline. Although this may help in easing the fight for environmental protection, it will not be easy for nations that aggressively pursued ‘family planning’ to reverse their falling birth rates. The consequent effect on their society and economy conjures frightening images and mandates intense soul-searching on this man-made catastrophe. Some countries may soon face the prospect of extinction if they fail to amend their current policy of maintaining racial purity and closing their doors to immigration. Malthusianism is dead, but the challenge lies in undoing the damage it caused. Humanity must tread a new path to ensure the wheels of our civilization do not come to a grinding halt.
Tokyo is the capital of Japan and the most populous city in the world. It has a population of 37.2 million. However, news from the remote Japanese village of Ten-ei, Fukushima was in sharp contrast to the stereotypical image of overflowing metro trains in Tokyo during rush hours.
A Reuters’ story showing the imminent closure of a 76-year-old Ten-ei school because of a lack of enrolment was a graphic exposition of Japan’s fast-declining population. 15-year Aoi Hoshi and Eita Sato are the only two students left at the Yumoto Junior High School. After they pass out, the school will close down.
It is reported that about 450 schools in Japan shut their doors, as no students seek admission. Around 9000 schools wound up between 2002 and 2020. Empty classrooms are a common sight in the land of the rising sun. Japan’s fast-aging population has been in continuous decline since 2010. In 2022, only 800,000 new babies were born in Japan. This number arrived 8 years ahead of statistical predictions. Currently, Japan has a population of 125 million. However, it is expected to decline by 30% to 88 million by 2065.
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida acknowledged the grave situation while addressing its national legislature, saying, “Our nation is on the brink. We may not be able to discharge our social functions. It is now or never when it comes to responding to child-rearing policies. We must establish a child-first economic society and reverse the birth rate.”
The script is similar in South Korea and China. The numbers may be different but the crisis is the same. The government is ready to provide all the necessary support to families who agree to produce more children. However, there are very few takers. People blame the high cost of living, rising prices, and sluggish wages.
India is not in that danger zone. Nevertheless, it could soon start paying the price for nurturing the concept of “fewer children = more prosperity”, sooner rather than later.
THE CLUB OF ROME REPORT
The Club of Rome is a Zurich-based not-for-profit think tank that critically analyses “pressing global issues”. Its researchers released a new “People and Planet Report” as part of its Earth4All initiative. The report busts the long-held myth about the population spiralling out of control and says that the population bomb may not explode after all. It predicts that the global human population will peak earlier than previously forecast and that too at a lower number.
The report predicts some numbers based on two possible scenarios. In the “Too late too little” scenario – in which “key trends such as birth rates, savings rates, debt ratios, tax levels, worker share of income, etc. run along according to prevailing system logic in the upcoming decades”, the global population will peak at just below 9 billion in 2046 and then start declining to 7.3 billion by 2100.
The second scenario called “Giant Leap” is a euphemism for a situation where we manage to achieve five historical turnarounds. These are “ending poverty, addressing gross inequality, empowering women, making our food system healthy for people and ecosystems, and transitioning to clean energy.”
The report predicts that in the second scenario, the global population shall peak at 8.5 billion in 2040 and then decline to around 6 billion by 2100. Although this fall in population will aid the cause of protecting the environment, the chilling effect it will have on economies and social and political life should be examined in greater earnestness.
MALTHUSIANISM STILL ALIVE
Malthusianism is a theory that believes population growth is exponential while the increase in food supply or other resources is linear. Thus, Malthusianism propounds that unless population growth is controlled artificially through various birth control measures, the resources to sustain the human population will decline and lead to widespread famine, war, or anarchy.
This event is termed as the Malthusian trap or Malthusian catastrophe. It was proposed in 1798 by the English economist and cleric – Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus in “An Essay on the Principle of Population.” The theory stands debunked because technological advancements triggered through the Industrial Revolution and subsequent strides in agriculture, food production, and food preservation never allowed the Malthusian trap to occur.
However, the theory had a profound impact on policymaking, and Neo-Malthusianism is still alive and kicking. Many still believe that the Malthusian trap is visible in third-world countries and not developed nations. Family planning and strict birth control as an instrument of state policy have yielded disastrous consequences as we see in the case of vanishing giants like Japan and the irreversible decline in populations of South Korea and China.
The Club of Rome report proved the population bomb to be a myth, yet governments and societies all over are yet to erase the alleged positive correlation between a smaller population and economic prosperity.
THE PERILS OF MATERIALISM
The Qur’ān warns people not to be trapped by the assumption that having children will lead to poverty. Verse 31 of Surah Bani Israel says, “Do not kill your children for fear of want. We will provide for them and you. Surely killing them is a great sin.”
The Qur’ān assures humanity that God will provide enough resources to sustain the planet and that we must not resort to ways that limit population growth. This assertion is ratified by experience and corroborated in the latest Club of Rome report, which maintains, “The primary issue is not overpopulation in comparison with available resources, but rather the current (too) high consumption levels among the world’s richest quarter. Or, put even more concisely: humanity’s main problem is distribution rather than population. Earth4All shows that socio-economic and natural resources are sufficient to ensure a dignified existence for the projected global population. This result, however, depends on an equal distribution of resources – something very, very far from current conditions.
“Therefore, we would argue that the most appropriate and important measure to reach a long-term sustainable global population is strongly progressive taxation, targeting primarily the richest elements of the global population. The resources thus levied should be used to fund all the five turnaround policies to support the sustainability transition.”
Aoi Hoshi, the last graduating student of Yumoto Junior High School, dreams of becoming a nursery school teacher. However, she is apprehensive that there will not be any children left in Ten-ei, by the time she becomes a teacher. If there are, she is eager to come back. Hoshi’s return to her village is unlikely and hence emblematic of the tragedy of our times.