The collapse of autocratic regimes in the Middle East is a welcome step forward for Arab democrats. But as the new leadership in the post-revolution Arab world struggles to ensure stability and security in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Yemen, the self-styled champion of democracy – America – is showing the ugliest form of its hypocrisy by casting doubts over the ability of the new leaders to deliver.
America’s clamour for democracy in the Arab world turns into an alert to the world when pro-Islam forces come to power through the ballot.
US officials, “caught off guard” by the dramatic events of the past 20 months, now suggest that they are “willing to live with Islamist regimes, provided they meet a modicum of democratic standards.”
One can’t help noticing here their malice towards Islamic blocs as they describe their governments as “regimes”. Has anyone ever heard the US media using “regime” for the British or French or German government?
It is hardly surprising as the inbuilt suspicion and apprehension about anything related to Islam always find reflection in Washington’s foreign policy. Democratic credentials of Islamic-minded leaders post Arab Spring have been suspected even before the dust has completely settled.
A section of the mainstream US media is highlighting “risks” that a “dictatorship even more pernicious, under theocratic leadership,” will stifle “aspirations for democracy” as well as “progress toward modernity”.
The media have inexplicably got jittery with the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Fears that Islamic reformists would not co-exist with the Copts are being expressed for no reason. The Brothers are being seen as “exacerbating the divide between Copts and Muslims”.
Similarly in Tunisia, the rightwing US media started seeing “the beginnings of what may one day be described as a civil war between secularists and Islamists.”
And how could the paranoid press spare Libya? As the battle to oust Qaddafi was being fought, an article on the Fox website said: “Tripoli appears poised to fall into the clutches of Al-Qaeda elements who fought among the rebels and are likely to dominate the army.”
The bad press that the fragile governments in North Africa and the Middle East continue to get in the West creates a stumbling block in the reconciliation process.
The new leaders in the saddle – Mohamed Morsi of Egypt, Abdal Rab Mansour Al-Hadi of Yemen, Mustafa Abdul Jalil of Libya and Moncef Marzouki of Tunisia – face enormous challenges, internal and external.
Tunisia’s state of emergency has been extended by one month. It is the sixth time the state of emergency has been extended since it came into force on January 14, 2011. It came just days after violent demonstrations in the central town of Sidi Bouzid, the birthplace of Tunisia’s revolution.
Protesters angry over their living conditions attacked the provincial government headquarters with rocks and police fired tear gas to disperse them. Some demonstrators also broke down the door and sacked the local offices of the ruling pro-Islam party Ennahda.
Quite rightly, people’s awakened expectations include improvements in their economic prospects. Regardless of political reform, countries in the region will still face formidable challenges: Growing, well-educated, young populations with high aspirations but poor job prospects.
With regional youth unemployment at nearly double the world average, social unrest could continue. Some economies in the region rely on their natural resources, making their currencies uncompetitive and potential for job creation limited.
Enhancing people’s living standard, creating employment opportunities for youth, ending corruption and improving law and order situation are the main tasks before the new players in the liberated lands.
“Odious debt” (debt inherited from the Ben Ali era) is a grave issue for Tunis. Friendly countries must come forward to recycle this debt by investing in development operations.
With the exception of Tunisia, all uprisings faced the challenge of divisions across religious/sectarian (Egypt, Syria and Bahrain) or tribal lines (Yemen and Libya).
This gives autocrats and their allies a good opportunity to exploit divisions within their challengers and weaken them. The demands of the revolutionaries thus far united these diverse communities despite efforts by pro-regime forces to exploit sociocultural divisions within the opposition.
These revolutions also face the risk and challenge of foreign interference from regimes that fear the spread of the Arab Spring into their own countries, or from other regional powers that fear losing influence as a result of these revolutions.
Unfortunately, these risks will continue to challenge spread of the Arab Spring and attempts by Arab revolutionaries to advance transformative change. They face the impossible task of countering attempts by local pro-regime forces or foreign actors to undermine these revolutions by spreading chaos and social disorder. One saw examples of this in Cairo when Hosni Mubarak’s thugs, mounted on horses and camels, attacked protesters at Tahrir Square causing utter chaos and loss of lives and limbs.
The biggest plus point of the region-wide awakening is that the wall of fear has caved in. People know that together they can assert their right to decide how they are governed and by whom.
Tunisia has democratically elected its Parliament for the first time since the 1950s. Morocco conducted free elections under a new constitution. In Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood came to power in free and fair elections that saw a satisfactory turnout.
After Muanmar Qadaffi’s 40-year dictatorship, Libya has a new government. Positive reforms are underway in Jordan and Yemen is witnessing some political stability after the Ali Abdullah Saleh’s draconian steps to crush massive protests against the US lackey.
Even as the Arab world celebrates its new found freedoms, economic challenges continue to play out across the region. The oil and gas sectors will undoubtedly play a major part in the economic reconstruction of the region. According to a report, the Middle East and North Africa account for almost 60% of global oil reserves and over 40% of gas reserves. This wealth, properly invested, could drive an economic rejuvenation across the region to match the political awakening.
The Middle East has always played a leading role in meeting global energy demand and this is not going to change. Production of traditional hydrocarbons needs to increase. The oil and gas sectors should be the lifeblood that drives economic regeneration, not only within their borders, but across the global economy.
These revolutions will likely continue to inspire similar initiatives in other Arab countries as younger generations of previously non-politicised activists continue marketing these revolutions as a new model of popular uprisings.
These revolutions also exhibited similarities in the strategies that their activists adopted in order to advance them. Specifically, activists across these uprisings used social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter to spread calls for protests in public squares.
The great Arabian revolution is in its last phase. The Syrian dictator is about to lose his grip. The regime is teetering with escalating defections and his inner circle crumbling. But to push out the regime for good, the Syrian opposition needs to unite now and build a real transitional government that’s a credible alternative to Bashar Assad.
Sadly, despite escalating violence and sectarian divisions starting to split the country, Syrian opposition figures are behaving more like competing political parties than a front unified to oust the brutal regime. And this weakness has prevented them from attracting “the people in the middle” who want Assad out but fear a chaotic future.
The longer the Syrian tyrant hangs on, the more chaos he’ll leave in his wake that could send shockwaves across the region. The opposition must move fast to show the people of Syria and the world that there is a government that can replace.
The Arab awakening needs time to prepare a direction for the masses. One cannot be certain of how the situation will unfold in each country, but there are signs abound that the prognosis is positive.
People expect their governments to serve their needs. They won’t accept any reversal of change, and will hold their governments accountable like never before.
These uprisings also share a common root in repression and brutality by security forces. The death of Khalid Said in Egypt at the hands of police officers is a case in point. Mohamed Bouazizi of Tunisia set himself on fire after being roughed up by police officers in another high-profile example of this trend.
The question troubling every thinking mind is: Why the cloud of democracy passed over the Arab world without downpour everywhere. This question led analysts to believe in what was called “Arab exceptionalism” or the alleged incompatibility of the societies of the region with democratic development.
This claim resonated with the conventional argument that Arab ruling elites used to justify their repressive policies against their own citizens on the grounds that “people are not yet ready for democracy”.
The claim has been refuted by the Arab Spring Express that is chugging along. After Syria is taken care of, it will find a new destination. Arab youth will give it a new direction. They have proved that the Arab peoples desire dignity and freedom as much as any other people.