The death of President Ebrahim Raisi will not cause any earthquake in the strategic relations between Syria and Iran, the key to which is held by the supreme leader Ali Khamenei. But there is no doubt that Raisi’s absence will reinforce the path on which these relations have been placed in the recent past. It means that there will be more warmth in relations with Arabs and coldness in Iranian alliance. The relationship between Damascus and Tehran will be redefined.
There are two recent pieces of evidence of Arab rapprochement. One is the appointment of a Saudi Arabian ambassador to Syria, to enhance political and official communication, along with other measures including resuming flights, receiving pilgrims through the Syrian Ministry of Endowments, and developing economic and trade relations. Second is the participation of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in the Arab summit in Bahrain.
Al-Assad attended the previous Arab summit in Jeddah a year ago, for the first time after a decade of freezing Damascus’ membership and the Arab boycott. At that time, he gave a speech in which he called for severing political relations with Israel. But at the Bahrain summit, he did not deliver a speech. The official explanation is that this was due to the limited time available, and the opposing explanation is that it was a result of disappointment with the normalization process a year after its launch. But the continued Syrian-Saudi rapprochement refutes this view. It enhances the possibility that behind the silence there is a political message strengthened by Assad’s absence from the funeral of the head of his strategic ally country which strongly supported him by all means during the last decade.
The Syrian silence in Manama and the absence in Tehran fall into the same category. Damascus is in the Arab embrace and cautiously in the Iranian alliance.
It is clear that water is not flowing smoothly and warmly on the Damascus-Tehran path. Israel is chasing Iranian leaders in Syrian territory without Damascus doing anything. There are even those who say that Syrian officials are happy with the pressure on Iran. Also, there are verbal and written instructions in the Syrian government to reduce dealings with Iranian institutions. At the same time, the level of bilateral visits between the two sides have also declined recently. The visit of Raisi to Damascus which took place early this year was also postponed several times.
On the other hand, there is a flood of Arab relations, communications and visits. It is true that there is implicit tension, particularly between Syria and Jordan, which led to the cancellation of the Arab ministerial meeting with the Syrians which was scheduled in Baghdad at the request of Amman. It is true that the Syrians and Jordanians exchanged harsh messages through diplomatic channels. The appointment of the Saudi ambassador will provide an umbrella for the rapprochement.
Between the coldness with Tehran and the warmth with the Arabs, an important development took place in Washington. The office of US President Joe Biden contacted Congress to withdraw a draft law against Arab normalization with Assad.
In addition to the new signals from the Biden administration, the European division regarding dealing with Damascus has strengthened. In response to the strictness of France, Germany, and Britain, and the trials of Syrian officials taking place in several capitals, countries such as Italy, Cyprus, and Greece took additional steps toward diplomatic normalization with Damascus. In April, a senior Czech official visited Damascus for the first time in a decade. European political envoys and heads of intelligence services also visited it secretly.
[by Ibrahim Hamidi in Al-Majalla]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque