China Sponsored Saudi-Iran Détente Would it really reduce the heat?

Israel was hoping to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia. This is after it has already normalised relations with the UAE and Bahrain. It wanted to reinforce Iran’s isolation and build a regional defence structure against it. But it is not clear now that Riyadh would jeopardise its agreement with Tehran by cooperating with the latter’s…

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Israel was hoping to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia. This is after it has already normalised relations with the UAE and Bahrain. It wanted to reinforce Iran’s isolation and build a regional defence structure against it. But it is not clear now that Riyadh would jeopardise its agreement with Tehran by cooperating with the latter’s historical enemy.

This may be a good thing, because Saudi Arabia’s perception of the Iranian threat is completely different from Israel’s perception of it. Riyadh is certainly concerned about Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons, but it does not see it as a grim threat as Israel does. Israel is ready to use military force to avoid such scenario. The extension of the Abrahamic Accord is still an option for some countries, but only if Iran goes back to use its old weapons and start threatening its neighbours again.

Perhaps the security is the reason for Riyadh for entering into the agreement with Iran. While this is the economy which forced Tehran to go for it. Both have two different purposes to sign the agreement.

The last four decades and a half of rule in Tehran has proved that Iran, despite its pragmatism, is committed to hegemony and regional expansion. China cannot change Tehran’s ways. As for Israel, it is getting closer to striking Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The final agreement is good news in the region which looks for some optimism. But would it solve the basic problems which have plagued regional security for decades?

[by Bilal Saab in Al-Majalla]

There was no sign of success in the Baghdad rounds of talks between the Iranian and Saudi negotiators held under the auspices of the former Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. But Chinese were successful in brokering the deal in the secret negotiations in Beijing. It achieved a major breakthrough, by reaching a political agreement between Tehran and Riyadh which will end the situation of estrangement and indirect military confrontation between the two. After a test period of two months, the diplomatic relations will be restored and in the first phase there will be meeting at the foreign ministers level. These parlays may reach the highest level of the political pyramid between the two countries.

The (China brokered Saudi-Iran) agreement includes refraining from interfering in the internal affairs of other countries. But its problem lies in the implementation. This is despite China’s commitment to supervise the implementation, considering that Iran believes that its centres of external influence in some countries are the first line of its defence of its internal system.

The agreement fulfils the demands of the two parties, defuses the war-like situation between them, and leads to the stability of the region, provided all the elements of the agreement are implemented in terms and meaning. But would the deep state of Iran represented by the Supreme Leader Ali Al Khamenei agree to what the actual Iranian government has signed in Beijing? This is a must to pave the way for new understandings to promote security and peace in the region.

[by Ahmad Rahhal in Al-Araby Al-Jadeed]

Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque