Young tech-savvy men and women riding on Facebook and Twitter gave birth to Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and Lotus Revolution in Egypt. Both succeeded. The revolutionaries were armed with only computers and smart phones, and just by walking down on the streets they demolished centres of despotism in one stroke. The calculus or the dynamics of the revolutions will be studied and researched in future but presently shivering is palpable in most of the 22 Arab States. Palaces are watching streets and trying to read the pulse of the masses. Arab world has learnt another lesson that the United States of America is not a dependable ally and cannot be trusted for too long. All these developments are going to change socio-political scenario of the Arab World, if not immediately in the long run.
Before analysing the Egyptian revolution, we must take a glance over the map of Arabia. In one corner of the West of Suez Canal lies Republic of Mauritania where General Mohamed Abdel Aziz seized power through a military coup. In April 2009 he conducted elections and swept the polls resulting in dictatorial rule which is breeding poverty and illiteracy.
King Mohammed VI of Morocco assumed the throne in 1999 and have been enjoying enormous executive powers ever since despite Morocco having an elected Parliament. Again, widespread poverty and literacy rules over Moroccan streets.
Handpicked by the army, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika rules over Republic of Algeria. It too faces grave poverty though literacy rate is high which has increased unemployment.
In Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Col. Muammar Gaddafi has been firmly ruling since 1969 but failed to remove poverty and the undercurrent of anger is brewing.
The Republic of Sudan (which is going to be divided into two shortly) is presided over by Omar Al Bashir, whose rule is said to have given way to civil war and has torn apart socio-political structure.
President Bashar-al-Assad is ruling with an iron fist over Syrian Arab Republic, which has one party system and disallows political space.
Ali Abdullah Saleh has been ruling over Republic of Yemen since 1978 where poverty, social unrest and terrorism are common.
Kingdom of Saudia Arabia is being ruled by House of Saud since 1931 and leaving aside a negligible hidden dissent, stability and continuity may be found. Other kingdoms and emirates from Qatar to the UAE are also in trouble as the young generation is becoming increasingly restive. Among all these tiny sheikhdoms, Qatar and Oman are stabilised in the real sense.
There are striking similarities in all these countries. Most of the rulers are ruling in the name of Islam but at the same time suppressing Islam in one way or the other. All these countries have not Islamic principles of governance and the distribution of wealth is totally unbalanced. While the palaces have perfumed gardens, the streets are full of deprivation and denial. Every Arab State has a large population of below 30 age group, which cannot be ignored now. Unemployment is fast rising and the westernisation of the soil by rulers has created false dreams among this huge under-30 population. This is the generation to which state controlled media cannot hide facts for long, as they have access to the World Wide Web and do not forget that this is the population which wants to turn socio-economic pyramid upside down and this is what exactly happened in Tunisia and Egypt.
In all Arab countries, the welfare programme devised by rulers has collapsed. Earlier the masses on streets had heavily subsidised food, cheap services, easy employment in public sector, old age pensions, etc. but now all these subsidies, foods and pensions are being withdrawn. Rulers developed commerce and industry on western model i.e. Capitalism and not on Islamic principles. Surprisingly, those who ruled in the name of Islam also feared Islamic principles and sentiments more. That is the contradiction in all Arab States including Saudi Arabia which is the biggest ally of the USA in the region.
The Revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt should be viewed against this background. The only difference between Tunisia and Egypt is that President Zine El Abdine Ben Ali did not put up a resistance while President Hosni Mubarak refused to read writing on walls till last moments. Uprising in both the countries is going to dent palaces in all Arab countries with varying degrees. Already, masses have come out on the streets of Jordan and Yemen demanding political reforms. Though in Jordan, Kind Abdullah has succeeded in calming down the anger of young generation but in Yemen the street people clearly want Ali Abdullah Saleh out of office. In Algeria, too, Abdelaziz Bouteflika is trying to save his regime by pressing police on the streets. Bahrain is also in danger zone as it has a Sunni regime while the majority of population belongs to Shiaism and the latest reports are that Shias have begun to call for departure of the Sunni regime.
The reaction of the Arab rulers after the Tunisia and Egypt Revolutions should also be analysed academically. Sharp minded rulers have begun initiating reforms and calming down popular anger. Jordan’s King Abdullah has appointed new cabinet to deal with the grievances of the masses whereas Al Sabbah ruling family of Kuwait has made it clear that they agree for more political space.
Facebook and Youtube were banned in Syria but now Basher Al-Assad has ordered to lift the ban. In Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh made it clear that he or his son will not contest 2013 elections. Another policy change is that most of the Arab regimes have decided to increase social budget for welfare of masses. Just before Mubarak bowed to people’s wish in Cairo, the ruler of Bahrain King Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifa announced a budget of $2,700 for each family.
In Saudia Arabia two-third of population is under 30 years age and the unemployment rate is 10 per cent. It is witnessing rising inflation and falling incomes. It has announced no policy shift for now but the latest reports are that Prince Khalid Al Faisal, Governor of Makkah Province is trying to reach out under 30 years population. Recently he invited five young people including a blogger and briefed them about sincere measures taken by the government. In the end of the meeting, he told them with a smile, “Do send our royal regards to the young people on Twitter.” This one sentence indicates the feeble attempts to reach out to masses.
Ruling families of the Arab world had realised that the fall of Mubarak in Egypt will directly hit them and so they tried every trick of the book to support Mubarak and ensure his continuity. King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz had extended support to Mubarak. He declared that, “in case the US withdraws its financial support to Cairo, my kingdom will prop up Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s regime”.
Let’s consider another political fact which is often ignored. Iran is not an Arab country but in the terminology of western military and political policymakers it has been included in the “Extended Middle East”. A harsh reality is that the role of Sunni Arabs has shrunk considerably. No Arab country has a major role to play in the region’s politics. Only three countries are key players and they are neither Arab nor Sunni. At one corner of Extended Middle East we have Iran which is a Shia state and on the other end is Turkey, which is secular in ideology, and in the middle lies Israel, a Jewish State. Sunni Arabia commonly bound by Arab nationalism is ceasing to exit. It is for the Sunni Arab thinkers, academicians and analysts to ponder over why such a time came?
My analysis is somewhat harsh. I have discussed the issue of Arab nationalism in detail in 1998. I had concluded my article “Confronting Islam or Arabism” (Radiance, 5-11 July, 1998) with the remark, “The Arab world must shed its Arab nationalism and embrace the Islamic world as a whole because the mosaic of final conflict is being set and the target is not Arabism but Islam.” In Egypt Abdel Gemal Nasser began a systematic assault on Islamic principles and the trend continued with Sadat’s and Mubarak’s regimes.
Deviation from Islam created an uneven society based upon injustice which forced the masses to push the sand palace of Mubarak to ruins. I am sure it is going to happen all over the Arab world, if the rulers did not shed the love for west and their Arabism, which is a western concept, and failed to adopt Islamic ideals.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rightly described the Egyptian Revolution as “Islamic Wave” and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran is not wrong when he reminds that the fall of Mubarak took place exactly after 32 years to the day of the fall of Shah Mohammad Raza Pahlvi on February 11, 1979. He sees the revolution as the, “emergence of a new Middle East that will doom Israel and break free of American interference”.
Tahrir Square has sent a strong message to Arab leaders. It was the American diplomacy and foreign policy which collapsed with Mubarak in Tahrir Square. American policy in Egypt was guided by the fear of Muslim Brotherhood. Tahrir Square defeated American ally by Muslim Brotherhood, which is the real essence of Islam. All Arab States should read the message and must follow the path shown by Islam in every aspect. Western concept of replacing Muslim Brotherhood (Ummah) by Arabism will not work. Ultimately all the Muslim countries will have to return to the Islamic concept of governance. That is the only solution.
[N. JAMAL ANSARI is Aligarh based socio-politico analyst.]