The election results of the recently concluded Assembly elections in Maharashtra sprang a mega surprise when the BJP-led Mahayuti (consisting of the BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde), and NCP (AjitPawar) made a stunning comeback after losing the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year. While the scale of the Mahayuti’s comeback, powered by the BJP, can be assessed through the numbers thrown up in the electoral contest, the reasons for the comprehensive drubbing the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) or INDIA Alliance received in Maharashtra are complex and manifold.
The MVA and INDIA alliance top leadership are not ready to accept these results as genuine and blame largescale EVM manipulation for the Mahayuti landslide. However, pursuing the EVM route for explaining the Maha-defeat of the INDIA Alliance or MVA in Maharashtra is now an exercise in futility as the Supreme Court of India has consistently rejected any questioning of the legitimacy and authenticity of counting of votes through EVMs.
“What happens is, when you win the election, EVMs are not tampered. When you lose the election, EVMs are tampered (with),” asked a Supreme Court bench, recently to a petition that was demanding the reintroduction of ballot papers to “safeguard democracy, and that EVMs are susceptible to tampering.”
An unprecedented victory just 5 months after a massive drubbing
Bucking any anti-incumbency trend, the ruling Mahayuti coalition won 235/288 seats with a 49.6% vote share, decimating the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which secured only 49 seats with 35.3% of the votes.
One can appreciate the scale of Mahayuti’s comeback as earlier this year, of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, the Mahayuti had won just 17 seats (BJP-9, SS-7, NCP-1) while the INDIA Alliance had won 30 Lok Sabha seats. Such was the Mahayuti’s dominance that in 138 constituencies it secured over 50% of the vote share, achieving an average winning margin that was more than double that of the MVA.
In contrast, the MVA managed to win only 16 seats with over 50% of the vote share, most of which were closely contested. Leading from the front, the BJP won 132 of the 149 seats it contested, a strike rate of 90%, while recording a vote share of 26.8%, its highest in the state’s history. In Muslim-dominated constituencies, the BJP increased its tally from 11 seats in 2019 to 14 in 2024, while the Congress saw its count fall from 11 to just 5. The Mahayuti secured 22 seats in these Muslim constituencies, compared to the MVA’s 13.
An early start to strategic planning
There are many reasons being theorised for the Mahayuti’s unprecedented and unexpected landslide. Veteran political analyst, Dr. Salim Khan suggests various strategic moves undertaken by the BJP that helped seal its massive victory. This work started immediately after they lost power to the MVA in 2019.
The BJP orchestrated a tactical shift by targeting opposition leaders with legal actions. Home Minister, Anil Deshmukh was jailed, and Shiv Sena spokesperson and MP, Sanjay Raut was arrested, aiming to weaken Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. However, these actions did not intimidate MVA stalwarts like Sharad Pawar or Uddhav Thackeray. The decisive move was engineering a vertical split in the Shiv Sena by blackmailing and luring Shiv Sena senior leader, Eknath Shinde with the “Chief Minister’s position,” a step that reshaped Maharashtra’s political landscape.
BJP’s willingness to accommodate Eknath Shinde as Chief Minister, despite its own numerical strength in the Assembly, showcased extraordinary patience and strategic planning. Devendra Fadnavis, the BJP’s leader with 105 MLAs, accepted the Deputy CM role, demonstrating sacrifice and prioritising alliance stability over personal ambition.
The many masterstrokes of BJP
According to Dr. Salim Khan, BJP tactically placated Shiv Sainiks, ensuring their loyalty despite the split within Shiv Sena. By installing a Shiv Sainik (Shinde) as Chief Minister, BJP diffused feelings of alienation among grassroots workers. It portrayed itself as the protector of Hindutva ideology, punishing Uddhav Thackeray for compromising the ideology for power-sharing with the secular Congress and NCP.
The BJP strategically avoided targeting Uddhav Thackeray directly. For example: Sanjay Raut’s arrest created pressure, but Uddhav’s own arrest was avoided to prevent public sympathy from tilting in his favour. A potential conspiracy to entangle Aaditya Thackeray in false charges was averted, preventing a backlash that could have jeopardised BJP’s prospects. Exploiting caste and community fears worked in BJP’s favor: The party tactically incited OBC Hindus by portraying Marathas as a dominant group threatening their socio-economic interests. This created a wedge among communities, ensuring BJP consolidated its base effectively.
BJP framed itself as the true custodian of Hindutva while branding Uddhav Thackeray as a traitor to the ideology. This narrative successfully cloaked Eknath Shinde’s defection as a move to uphold Hindutva rather than a political betrayal. Unlike its missteps in other states, BJP demonstrated prudence in Maharashtra:
MVA misses the bus
In contrast, the MVA failed to consolidate their electoral victory from five months ago in the Lok Sabha elections. As pointed out by experts, on paper, they had all the ingredients to capitalise on their success and turn it into a commanding win in the Maharashtra assembly elections. Yet, they faltered. Why? The foremost explanation is the complacency, short-sightedness, and internal squabbles within the MVA leadership.
Despite this advantageous position, the MVA squandered its momentum. Over the last five months, they failed to finalise their seat-sharing arrangements in a timely manner, causing unnecessary delays and confusion. The Congress refused to endorse Uddhav Thackeray as the CM face of the MVA, which could have galvanised the Sena support base.
The Ladli Behan Scheme emerged as a key strategy for the Mahayuti, exploiting the economic struggles of poor households, while the MVA seemed unprepared to counter it effectively. Although the MVA promised to double the benefit under the Mahalaxmi scheme, their delayed announcement and overly cautious approach led to missed opportunities with women voters. A 6% increase in women voters in this election went in favour of Mahayuti.
The Opposition now have their work cut out in the state. Hope they take a lesson from this debacle and start afresh. Maharashtra’s political landscape now faces a dominant BJP alliance with implications for governance and electoral strategies in forthcoming elections.