US President Joe Biden, at the end of May, presented the Israeli proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Before discussing this, we should understand the political background of this Israeli proposal presented in the American language. The first question that comes to mind about its political logic is: Why did Biden present an Israeli vision, instead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself coming out presenting this vision to the world? This vision seems to have been crystallized in the Israeli war cabinet, which has representation also of the Israeli army.
If this new proposal fails, (War Cabinet Minister Benny) Gantz’s exit from the government will be certain. But this will not affect the survival of Netanyahu’s original government (65 members). However, his legitimacy in making military decisions will erode, and popular protest will increase. Gantz missed the opportunity to bring about a fundamental change in the political scene. His delay in leaving the government has made it stable. If he exits, Netanyahu may now succeed in presenting him as the one who escaped the war, particularly since the time of his exit may coincide with the escalation on the northern front.
It is clear that Netanyahu tried, after Biden presented his proposal, to thwart the deal by confirming that Israel would continue its military operations. It is as if he was giving a proposal for a solution, and himself presenting conditions that would thwart it. In the end, he came out with a propaganda speech accusing the others of thwarting it.
This no longer deceives the Israeli social segments which support the American proposal. The slogan carried in Tel Aviv’s Saturday demonstration demonstrated this situation. It said: “Save them from Netanyahu, Biden.” It means, save the Israeli hostages from Netanyahu, who is obstructing every effort to reach a deal, including the current proposal of course.
Netanyahu is betting on the increase in his popularity in recent months, and on plummeting the gap between him and Gantz regarding their eligibility to assume the position of prime minister. The popularity of Gantz’s party dropped two months ago from 40 seats to 28 seats. Israeli society – or at least large sectors of it – began to see Netanyahu as a man of the moment in light of the retaliatory militarism that still exists in the consciousness of Israelis.
It is well-known here that the electoral conflict exists among those who oppose Netanyahu, and not within the camp which supports him. It gives political space for Netanyahu to move and manage the battle, marginalizing Gantz in decisions related to the war and its political prospects.
It is not unlikely that Netanyahu will escape from disrupting the current deal towards escalation on the northern front. This is despite the fact that the price which Israel may pay will be high. The escalation on the northern front may lead to neutralizing the internal Israeli debate about the proposal, at a time when the United States was hoping that it would contribute to resolving the crisis on the northern front. [by Mohanad Mustafa in Aljazeera]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque