The geopolitical situation in the Middle East post-October 7, 2024, is extremely turbulent and explosive, inviting anxiety and uncertainty. The Israeli genocidal war on Gaza has intensified fears of spill over effects in Lebanon, where many are acutely aware of the delicate balance of power among various factions. One of the most powerful forces in the country is Hezbollah, whose role has come under scrutiny as the group grapples with its allegiance to Iran and its commitment to the Lebanese populace, which is weary of further conflict.
The influx of refugees from Gaza places additional strain on Lebanon, already burdened by its own economic crises and political fragmentation. While some Lebanese view the ongoing turmoil as an opportunity to unify against a common adversary, many others fear that rising tensions could lead to a resurgence of violence within their borders.
A power to reckon with
Hezbollah, also known as the (Hizb) Party of Allah, was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Beirut, Lebanon. Since 1992, it has been led by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah as its Secretary-General. The organization is rooted in Shia Islamism and is driven by an anti-Zionist ideology, with a primary focus on resisting what it perceives as Western and Israeli influence in the region.
Hezbollah emerged during the Lebanese Civil War, initially as a response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and was supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolution. Although it was initially established with the goal of creating an Islamic state in Lebanon, Hezbollah has since evolved into a significant political and military force. Hezbollah’s military wing is one of the most formidable non-state armed groups globally, having engaged in several conflicts with Israel, most notably the 2006 Lebanon War. It has also played a role in the Syrian Civil War, where it supported the Assad regime.
Politically, Hezbollah operates within Lebanon’s parliamentary system, where it has gained substantial representation and holds various government positions. The organization is also known for providing social services, including healthcare and education, which help secure its support among the Shia population.
Internationally, Hezbollah is designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including the United States and Israel, although it is viewed by many in the Arab world as a legitimate resistance movement. Hezbollah is a critical player in Lebanese politics and regional dynamics, maintaining its military capabilities despite ongoing tensions with Israel and internal challenges within Lebanon.
It is one of the most heavily armed non-state military forces in the world, reportedly funded and equipped by Iran. Hezbollah claims that it has around 100,000 fighters, although independent estimates suggest the number ranges between 20,000 and 50,000. Many of these fighters are well-trained and battle-hardened, having fought on the side of President Assad during the Syrian Civil War.
Hezbollah’s arsenal is estimated to include between 120,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles, with most being small, unguided surface-to-surface artillery rockets. However, the group is also believed to possess anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, as well as guided missiles capable of striking deep inside Israel. Hezbollah’s military capabilities surpass those of Hamas, making it a powerful force in the region.
Game of one-upmanship
In the ongoing rivalry between Israel and Hezbollah, the recent exchange of fire is emblematic of the strategic manoeuvring that often defines their interactions. The violence, while outwardly about military gains, seems more rooted in the need for both sides to assert dominance and respond to provocations – a clear display of one-upmanship.
Israel initiated the latest round of conflict with a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, justifying the move by claiming that Hezbollah was preparing to launch an attack. In response, Hezbollah launched its own attacks on several Israeli military and intelligence sites. It framed the operation as a reaction to Israel’s earlier actions, particularly the assassination of FuadShukr, a top Hezbollah commander. For Hezbollah, this retaliation was not just about avenging Shukr’s death but also about sending a clear message that attacks on its leadership would be met with force.
Since October 8, when Israel began its genocidal war in Gaza, Hezbollah has engaged in a series of smaller, calculated attacks along the Lebanon-Israel border. This ongoing exchange is a strategic effort by Hezbollah to pressure Israel into halting its actions in Gaza while avoiding a full-scale war.
Both Israel and Hezbollah have used this conflict to test each other’s strength. Israel claims to have weakened Hezbollah’s arsenal, while Hezbollah dismisses these claims as exaggerations. This exchange of rhetoric is part of the psychological warfare each side engages in, aiming to project power and undermine the other’s credibility. Although Hezbollah’s attack was triggered by the assassination of FuadShukr, the group’s response indicates a broader strategic consideration. Hezbollah’s actions are likely part of a coordinated effort with its regional allies, demonstrating that this conflict is not just a localized struggle but part of a larger regional power play.
The timing of these attacks, coinciding with ceasefire negotiations in Cairo, suggests that Hezbollah’s actions are also aimed at influencing the talks. By escalating violence, Hezbollah may be trying to strengthen its bargaining position, though the outcome remains uncertain as Israel sets new conditions for any potential agreement.
The Axis of Resistance
The “Axis of Resistance” is a coalition primarily led by Iran, comprising various militant groups and political entities across the Middle East. This alliance includes notable factions such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. The formation of this axis can be traced back to the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which aimed to export Iran’s revolutionary ideology and counter Western and Israeli influence in the region. The primary objective of the Axis of Resistance is to oppose Israel and U.S. influence in the Middle East.
Despite the differing ideologies among its members – ranging from Shia to Sunni groups, they share a common goal of resisting Western imperialism and defending Palestinian rights. Many Muslims view the Axis as a defender of Palestinian rights and a bulwark against Israeli aggression. They applaud and support these groups as they feel that legitimate Muslim regimes are not doing anything substantial to oppose Western and Israeli hegemony in the region. In the political dynamic of “people versus the palace”, in the Middle East, the Axis is seen to represent the “people” and therein lies the secret of its popularity and success.