The arrival of Egyptian military aircraft to the Somali capital, Mogadishu, loaded with army equipment, has raised huge concern in the region. The Ethiopian government has shown fierce reactions terming any Egyptian military presence on its borders a direct threat to it and to the security in the region. It also threatened to take measures to secure its borders and “maintain security in the Horn of Africa region.” Although it is unlikely that any direct military escalation will occur, the seriousness of political and media escalations cannot be underestimated. It requires regional and international interventions to calm tensions.
But everyone who follows the situation in the region knows that the source of Ethiopian anger is not only the sending of military equipment, but the protocol signed between Egypt and Somalia, according to which Egypt will send military forces to contribute to the African Union peace mission in Somalia, as a replacement for Ethiopian forces. Under this agreement, the Egyptian forces will be stationed in a Somali region near the Ethiopian border. The Somali government had requested the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from its territory, following the tension which occurred in the relations between the two countries.
The crisis began in January, when Ethiopia signed an agreement with the Republic of Somaliland, a region separate from Somalia which has not been recognized regionally or internationally. This deal allowed it to lease an area on the Red Sea coast. Under the agreement, Ethiopia will be the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent state at the appropriate time, according to its president.
The agreement enables Ethiopia to lease a 20-kilometer seafront on the Red Sea inside Somaliland, to use it as a military base or for commercial purposes for a period of 50 years. Ethiopia relied mainly on the port of Djibouti. This agreement is an extension of Ethiopian moves to achieve the ambitions of extending its footings on the Red Sea coasts. This is after it lost its sea coasts with the independence of Eritrea in 1993. It had previously tried to use Port Sudan in Sudan and Eritrean ports.
The agreement sparked angry reactions in the Republic of Somalia, of which Somaliland is a part and which it does not recognize as an independent state. A week after the agreement, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud signed a law annulling the maritime agreement he deemed “illegal” between Ethiopia and the breakaway Republic of Somaliland. The Somali government said it would confront the agreement by all legal means. It denounced what it described as “aggression” and “a flagrant violation of its sovereignty.”
The declared ambition of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to secure access to the Red Sea is a source of tension between Ethiopia and its neighbours. It raises fears of a new conflict in the Horn of Africa.
These developments cannot be read without taking into account the tense atmosphere between Ethiopia and Egypt; due to the issue of the Renaissance Dam which Ethiopia built inside its territory on the Blue Nile heading to Sudan and Egypt. Ethiopia, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has also begun to aspire to play a regional role, which often intersects with the Egyptian interests and enters into competition with it.
It cannot be denied that the atmosphere is tense, and the possibilities are open.
[by Faisal Saleh in Asharq Al-Awsat]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque