India-Canada Diplomatic Feud Deepens

New Delhi vehemently denies this allegation. In retaliation, India suspended visa services in Canada, and both countries reduced their diplomatic missions. Although India restored limited visa services in October 2023, diplomatic tensions persisted, especially with Trudeau’s renewed allegations of covert Indian activities in October 2024.

Written by

Arshad Shaikh

Published on

October 29, 2024

India and Canada are locked in a serious diplomatic feud following accusations of terrorism and targeted assassination, leading both nations to expel key diplomats. On October 14, Canada expelled India’s High Commissioner, Sanjay Verma and five other diplomats, citing allegations by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) linking them to violent criminal activities. In response, the Indian government expelled six Canadian diplomats, including Canada’s Acting High Commissioner, and dismissed Ottawa’s accusations as “preposterous” and politically motivated.

Speaking to the media, after returning to India, Verma said, “This is the pits. This is the most unprofessional approach to a bilateral relation. There are diplomatic tools available in the hands of a diplomat. Those tools could have been used. Both are democracies, both are countries of rule of law. We have a huge diasporic interest in Canada. We are good trading partners, investment partners, etc. So, we had been doing well in the overall canvas of our bilateral relations. And, this came to me as a shock.”

Canada framed the expulsions as a result of India’s lack of cooperation in police investigations, which India denounced as false and strategic propaganda.

Timeline of Escalation

Relations between India and Canada have deteriorated over several years, rooted in tensions over alleged Khalistani separatist activities in Canada. The friction began in 2018 when Jaspal Atwal, accused in the attempted murder of Punjab Minister Malkiat Singh Sidhu in 1986, appeared with Sophie Trudeau (wife of the Canadian Prime Minister) during the Canadian PM’s visit to India. Tensions worsened in June 2023 when Hardeep Singh Nijjar (an India-born Canadian national) was shot dead outside a Gurdwara in Surrey, British Columbia.

A series of incidents followed, including vandalism of a Hindu temple in British Columbia and a referendum by Khalistani separatists in Surrey during the September 2023 G20 Summit. India raised concerns about anti-India activities in Canada. The standoff escalated when Trudeau publicly accused India of involvement in Nijjar’s assassination saying, “We will never tolerate the involvement of a foreign government in threatening and killing Canadian citizens on Canadian soil – a deeply unacceptable violation of Canada’s sovereignty and of international law.”

New Delhi vehemently denies this allegation. In retaliation, India suspended visa services in Canada, and both countries reduced their diplomatic missions. Although India restored limited visa services in October 2023, diplomatic tensions persisted, especially with Trudeau’s renewed allegations of covert Indian activities in October 2024.

Canada claimed Indian officials obstructed police cooperation, further deepening the rift. Further complicating the plot was news that Vikas Yadav, a former Indian intelligence officer being charged by U.S. authorities in connection with a foiled assassination plot targeting Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a U.S. citizen and Sikh separatist leader.

Yadav allegedly orchestrated this plot from India, directing his co-conspirator, Nikhil Gupta, who was recruited to carry out the assassination in New York City in 2023. The U.S. Justice Department has accused Yadav of using his position within the Indian government to facilitate this murder-for-hire scheme. Gupta, who is currently imprisoned in the U.S., was allegedly tasked by Yadav to execute the plan. The indictment details how Yadav collaborated with other Indian agents to coordinate the assassination.

Impact on Trade and Business

The diplomatic crisis has already impacted bilateral trade, which peaked at $9 billion in 2022 but dropped to $8 billion in 2023. Several sectors are affected, including IT, tourism, and education. Visa delays have disrupted both tourism and student travel, posing a challenge to Canada’s education sector, which heavily depends on Indian students. “This could lead to a $5 billion reduction in GDP next year,” warned Indo-Canadian entrepreneur AjitSomeshwar.

Business events such as Ontario Trade Minister Vic Fedeli’s planned trip and a gala honouring Sadhguru were postponed.

Ritesh Malik, Chair of the Canada India Foundation, said, “Canadian businesses are grappling with continuity, diversification, and future uncertainty.” Trade disruptions are also looming, with Canada importing crucial goods like pharmaceuticals, rice, and petroleum from India, while India relies on Canadian potash, lentils, and coal.

Although Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng reassured businesses that economic ties would remain intact, she emphasised that sovereignty and the rule of law remain Canada’s top priorities. The crisis has also unsettled the Indo-Canadian community, with fears of rising hate crimes.

“Indo-Canadians are being unfairly linked to extremism and targeted by hate-mongers,”Someshwar noted, citing recent vandalism of Hindu temples. Despite tensions, hopes remain for de-escalation, with businesses urging both countries to quickly resolve their differences to prevent further economic damage.

The Road Ahead

As diplomatic tensions persist, India’s row with Canada risks into escalating into something bigger involving other Western allies. The indictment by the U.S. Department of Justice against Indian intelligence officer Vikash Yadav further complicates the imbroglio. India now faces pressure not only from Canada but also from members of the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance, including the U.S. Moving forward, India must adopt a coherent strategy that balances diplomatic interests with national security. Denying accusations outright may not suffice; the government must clarify whether any covert actions were sanctioned or whether it was the work of rogue elements. Transparency will shape global perceptions and help maintain accountability within India’s security apparatus. India should avoid being overly defensive and work with its allies quietly behind the scenes to prevent further isolation.

It is important to actively engage with Canada and the U.S. to rebuild trust and protect important trade and strategic relations. At the same time, India must deal with the unfair expectations of countries that ask for cooperation without being equally accountable. India’s challenge is to show strength while still being seen as a responsible global player. There must be clear rules for covert operations, along with careful reflection within its intelligence agencies.

India needs to adjust its diplomatic goals to match changing global situations, making sure that short-term actions do not harm long-term partnerships. The way India handles this tricky situation will not only shape its relationship with Canada but also affect how it is viewed by other world powers.