The Maharashtra Assembly Elections are scheduled for November 20, with the two-phase Jharkhand Assembly Elections on November 13 and November 20, and results for both to be counted on November 23. These high-stakes elections mark the second major showdown between the ruling NDA and the opposition INDIA bloc since the May 2024 general elections, with outcomes likely to shape national politics in the coming months.
In Maharashtra, the fractured political landscape and recent splits within Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have set the stage for a heated battle. The ruling MahaYuti (Grand Alliance) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) will compete for control in the state’s 288-member Assembly, the second-largest in India after Uttar Pradesh. MVA allies – Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP(SP) – are planning to contest around 85 seats each, with final negotiations underway for a few remaining constituencies.
Maharashtra’s political scene has seen dramatic shifts since the 2019 Assembly elections, marked by the collapse of coalitions and reformation of alliances. Following a rift over the chief ministership, the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance broke up, and Uddhav Thackeray formed the MVA government. This government was subsequently toppled in 2022 by an uprising led by Eknath Shinde, who, with BJP support, was appointed chief minister, forming what critics dubbed an “illegitimate” administration facilitated by institutional support. Formal divisions within the Shiv Sena and NCP, now recognised by the Election Commission, have further splintered the political environment.
The MahaYuti alliance, led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, BJP, and AjitPawar’s NCP faction, is banking on LadkiBahin Yojana. Launched after Lok Sabha elections, this scheme provides Rs.1,500 monthly to low-income women and aims to reach 2.5 crore beneficiaries, representing over half of the 4.5 crore women voters in the state.
Meanwhile, the MVA, composed of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP(SP), is positioning itself as the alternative to the ruling coalition. Analysts predict these Assembly elections will spotlight state-specific issues like law and order, unemployment, inflation, and the Maratha quota movement, despite the MVA’s recent success in winning 30 of Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats to MahaYuti’s 17. Public safety and governance have become focal points for the opposition’s campaign, with particular criticism directed at Home Minister Devendra Fadnavis, following the recent death of NCP leader and former minister Baba Siddique in Mumbai.
The opposition’s strategy centres on exposing governance failures and addressing issues affecting voters, such as the collapse of a Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj statue in Sindhudurg district and the ongoing Maratha quota stir – key factors in the MahaYuti’s poor performance in Lok Sabha elections. Congress leader Ratnakar Mahajan pointed out that BJP is witnessing a gradual erosion of its voter base, emphasising that the opposition will continue to champion people-centric issues. The smooth seat-sharing process among opposition parties has also sent a positive message to voters disillusioned with the current government.
Discontent is widespread among various groups: farmers, Marathas, Dalits, tribal communities, and Muslims. Inflation and unemployment continue to be major concerns. Farmers are facing higher input costs and low prices for crops like cotton and soybeans, while OBCs feel slighted by attempts to allocate part of their quota to Marathas, who are similarly frustrated at their exclusion from the OBC reservation. Tribal communities have expressed anger over amendments to the Forest Rights Act, and Dalits harbour mistrust over perceived attempts to alter the Constitution. Muslims, who feel marginalised by the government, remain cautiously hopeful for change.
However, Muslims, who make up around 15 percent of the state’s population, are also frustrated with the opposition MVA for inadequate political representation. Former state minister and Congress leader Anees Ahmed recently voiced these grievances, noting that while Muslims overwhelmingly support Congress, they are rarely given substantial electoral opportunities. In an interview with a Marathi news channel, Ahmed underscored the need for strategic seat allocation to give Muslim candidates a fair chance of success, rather than merely fielding them in vulnerable constituencies.
Meanwhile, bolstered by its unexpected success in Haryana, the BJP is confident it can manage the “mahaul” once again through its campaign strategies. Despite growing public discontent with the BJP and MahaYuti, as seen in Maharashtra’s pre-election sentiment, the ruling alliance is hoping that its recent promises will sway voters. In the past four months, the government has made over 150 announcements, including Diwali bonuses for workers, subsidies for cotton and soybean farmers, daily cow allowances of Rs 50 for farmers, free bus rides for senior women, construction kits for labourers, and pay raises for madrasa teachers and Haj committee members – widely seen as transactional offerings to garner support.
Analysts expect a close election. In Lok Sabha elections, the two alliances were nearly neck-and-neck, with MahaYuti securing 42.73 percent of votes and MVA 43.91 percent. The upcoming assembly election will not only be a litmus test for both factions of Shiv Sena and NCP but may also reveal whether emotional issues trump broader concerns like inflation and unemployment.
ECI’sWays
Referring to the recent Haryana election, a Shiv Sena (UBT) MP remarked that the tactics used there should not be repeated in Maharashtra, expressing doubts about the Election Commission of India’s impartiality. He suggested that the ECI decision to delay the announcement of Maharashtra’s election dates – allowing the ruling coalition extra time to implement its monthly cash transfer programme for women – was intentional.
Following the Lok Sabha results, Mahayuti government launched the LadkiBahin Yojana in August, providing Rs.1,500 per month to women in need. If the alliance retains power, they have promised to double this payment. The ECI scheduled Maharashtra’s voting on a single day, November 20, which some argue is a disadvantage to the Opposition, who have fewer resources to conduct a statewide campaign as efficiently. By contrast, the Lok Sabha elections’ four-phase voting enabled the Opposition to campaign across regions more effectively.
Also, the timeline for forming a new administration in Maharashtra is unusually tight. With the current assembly’s term ending on November 26, and results to be announced on November 23, only two days are left to form a government. This contrasts sharply with Haryana, where results were declared on October 8, allowing 18 days for government formation. Given Maharashtra’s size and multi-party dynamics, critics question why such limited time was allocated. Should no clear majority emerge, the lack of negotiation time could lead to President’s Rule – a concern the ECI has yet to address.
Jharkhand
The BJP’s efforts to regain political ground in Jharkhand are facing significant challenges due to a wave of defections in the tribally dominated state ahead of the assembly elections. Several prominent BJP leaders have shifted allegiance to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance, part of the INDIA bloc, citing dissatisfaction with the BJP’s candidate selection process. A senior BJP leader remarked, “The party is ignoring its dedicated workers. Of the 66 candidates declared so far, more than half are newcomers.” This discontent largely stems from the BJP’s choice to field leaders like former Chief Minister Champai Soren, his son Babulal Soren, and recent additions such as LobinHembrom, Ganga Narayan, and Geeta Kora in key constituencies. Voting for Jharkhand’s 81-member assembly is set for November 13 and 20.
Assam Chief Minister HimantaBiswaSarma, overseeing the BJP’s campaign in Jharkhand, downplayed the defections as typical reactions following a candidate announcement in a large party. He also promised to address the concerns of discontented leaders in upcoming meetings. However, the level of dissatisfaction remains significant.
Kunal Sarangi, who left the BJP in July after being denied a ticket, shared his frustration: “Nobody from the BJP even called me after denying me a ticket. I left a comfortable job overseas to serve society, so this hurt me a lot.” Previously, Sarangi had been shortlisted for the Jamshedpur seat in the Lok Sabha elections but was ultimately not selected.
Meanwhile, JMM leader and Chief Minister Hemant Soren announced that JMM and Congress would contest a total of 70 seats in the upcoming elections, while RJD and Left parties would contest the remaining 11 seats. In the 2019 elections, JMM contested 43 seats and won 30, Congress contested 31 and won 16, while RJD secured just one win out of seven seats contested.
Despite these setbacks, the BJP plans to contest 68 of the 81 assembly seats, leaving the remainder for its allies. While the party faces mounting internal challenges, it aims to overcome these obstacles and regain power in Jharkhand. The JMM, however, has taken a dig at the BJP’s candidate list, noting that only 35 candidates are long-term members of the party.