The Republican Party decided to officially announce the candidacy of former US President Donald Trump to run in the upcoming presidential elections in November 2024 against current President Joe Biden, who is suffering from a crisis within the Republican Party due to his old age.
This atmosphere suggests that Trump is most likely to win the upcoming elections compared to the decline in President Joe Biden’s stock. It raises questions in political circles about the relationship of the US with various countries of the world if Trump reaches the White House again early next year. This is particularly after his recent statements in which he told Russia that it can do whatever it wants with NATO. He has also asked Israel to complete the mission. He also told Ukraine’s president Zelensky that he will not give him more money.
If we look south towards the Middle East,we will find American policy like a wrecked train, during his first term: Trump abandoned the nuclear agreement which had restricted the Iranian nuclear program, moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and closed the US office for Palestinian affairs in Washington. Trump’s plan for Palestinian-Israeli peace rejected the two-state solution.
In return, the Abraham Accords were signed to normalize diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab countries. But the Abraham Accords did not address the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and Biden took over the situation in that state, but he made problems worse. Biden waited too long to return to the nuclear agreement with Iran.
Iran came under conservative rule after the 2021 elections. Therefore, returning to the nuclear agreement is now more distant than before. Iran is closer to building a nuclear bomb than ever before. Biden treated the Palestinians exactly like Trump. He delayed the reopening of the consular office in Washington and neglected diplomatic peace talks. He also ignored the rise of the most far-right government in Israel’s history.
Biden’s policy is almost no different from that of Trump’s. Trump does not care about the Palestinians or the Israelis. But he is aware of the politics of power and political pressure within America and will act accordingly.
It is no wonder that Israel expects unconditional support from America, whether with Biden or Trump. But the only difference will be in the rhetoric, as Netanyahu was in greater agreement with Trump. Therefore, the populist tone is likely to dominate the headlines. Trump’s history indicates that he is fully prepared to increase the risks in his dealings with Iran.
For Saudi Arabia, Trump’s return to power would improve the chances of a Saudi-Israeli deal, as Biden has relied on the Abraham Accords, and Trump is likely to continue that policy. He will also benefit from his positive view of Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler and crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. To seal the deal, Trump could offer the Saudis security guarantees and a generous arms package. This would be in exchange for Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, but Trump would likely withdraw from the Middle East more generally and his administration would have no interest in providing American security for the region, let alone the world as a whole. It would mean no US Navy rescue missions if global shipping were to be attacked again.
[Arabic Post]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque