SYYED MANSOOR AGHA analyses the situation leading to the emergence of South Sudan, and discusses the accompanying problems dogging the region.
After decades of ethnic and tribal wars, loss of life of several millions, a new nation “South Sudan” emerged on the map of the world on July 9, 2011. Carved from “Republic of Sudan” as the outcome of a 2005 peace deal that ended Africa’s longest-running civil war, South Sudan comprises 10 south most states of the country. Under the agreement, an overwhelming majority of South Sudanese voted in a January 2011 referendum to secede and become Africa’s newest country since Eritrea split from Ethiopia in 1993.
It is uncertain if the division of the county will solve the ethnic strife or shall give birth to new conflicts among citizens in both parts of Sudan. As a result of the division, the remaining north seems poised to adopt Islamic Shari’ah as bedrock of its constitution and declare the country an “Islamic Republic”; while leaders of South Sudan are highly allergic to Islam and Arabs.
One of the main complaints of Southern leaders against the Khartoum administration was of backing out from their promise (made in 1956 at the time of country’s independence from British and Egypt-run occupation) to adopt federal system, and instead trying to impose an Islamic and Arabic identity. Now it is history. Had Muslims of North Sudan treated Christian and non-Muslim nomadic tribes of South generously, in the true spirit of Islam, the latter might have come closer and not opposed Islam and the country might have remained united.
The official ceremony to declare birth of a new county in Juba, the biggest city of South Sudan, was attended by world leaders including Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the UNO. India was represented by Vice President Hamid Ansari. Salva Kiir Mayardit, the president of South Sudan, stood with Omar al-Bashir, his counterpart in the north and a longtime opponent of division of the county to take oath of first President of South Sudan.
Imperialist world powers backed breaking of the African country to pursue their interests. They pressed for referendum and extended support to adversaries of Khartoum. However these powers are adverse to use the same yardstick to solve other regional disputes including Palestine. To pressurise Omar al-Bashir, the President of Sudan, an arrest warrant was also issued by International Criminal Court charging him of crimes against humanity.
At the ceremony after a military parade by former SPLA rebels, amidst formal lowering of the Sudanese flag and raising of the banner of SPLA as new flag of South Sudan, the first public singing of the southern national anthem, and the signing of the transitional constitution by Kiir, Speaker James Wani Igga read the proclamation of independence. He said: “We have resolved to overcome the past and face the future with a renewed sense of purpose, and it has stirred a forgiveness and reconciliation.”
A roar of approval greeted the raising of the flag, and the country’s bouncing new national anthem echoed out of loudspeakers. The old flag of Sudan will be kept in Juba’s national archives, in recognition of the two countries “common history”.
Addressing the gathering President Kiir said: “We should have a new beginning of tolerance where cultural and ethnic diversity will be a source of pride … Remember we are all South Sudanese first.” He also acknowledged: “During the transitional period, the government of South Sudan faces daunting challenges.”
Calm and composed Omar al-Bashir declared: “We congratulate our brothers in the south for the establishment of their new state … The will of the people of the south has to be respected.”
Kiir also offered an amnesty to armed groups fighting his government, and promised to bring peace to troubled border areas. “I want to assure the people of Abyei, Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan that we have not forgotten you. When you cry, we cry. When you bleed, we bleed. I pledge to you today that we will find a just peace for all,” he said, adding he would “work with north Sudan’s Bashir to attain that”.
The UN Security Council on July 8 adopted a resolution creating a UN mission in South Sudan that will include 7,000 armed peacekeepers and 900 civilians tasked with helping the fledgling nation. Steps are being taken to register South Sudan as a new member of world body.
In a statement, US President Barack Obama said: “Today is a reminder that after the darkness of war, the light of a new dawn is possible. A proud flag flies over Juba and the map of the world has been redrawn.”
India immediately accorded recognition to the new country. A letter to the effect from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to President General Salva Kiir Mayardit was handed over to him shortly after he assumed power at the Independence Day function on Saturday. India also showed interest to start development work in the new country. Soon an ambassador will be appointed in Juba. China and the UK are among the countries which had already established embassies in Juba. Chinese special envoy Jiang Weixin called it ‘the beginning of development’ and expressed intention to engage the new country for development work with Chinese cooperation.
The region comprising South Sudan is the least developed area of the world. It is a land of expansive grasslands, swamps and tropical rain forests straddling both banks of the White Nile. The new nation stands to benefit from inheriting the bulk of Sudan’s oil wealth. Some three-quarters of the formerly unified Sudan’s oil fields are located in the south, though all the refinery and shipping facilities are in the north. Under the 2005 accord, South Sudan received 50% of Sudan’s oil proceeds, which provides the bulk of the country’s budget. But that arrangement was set to expire with division of the country.
Khartoum and Juba will likely spend the next few months negotiating a deal to share oil revenues, not to mention the still-undecided details of the border that separates the two countries. Unresolved disputes of border areas with Khartoum and a lack of economic development cloud its immediate future. However most of the South Sudanese say they are tired of war and now want economic development. But ethnically and linguistically highly diverse population has its own inherent contradictions and conflicts, which are to be addressed immediately.
Unlike the predominantly Muslim population of Sudan, the South Sudanese follow traditional religions, while a minority is Christian. Dinka, Nuer and Shilluk are among dominant ethnic groups. In the absence of common enemy, Muslims and Arabs of the North, these groups are bound to fight among themselves to control the resources of the country. Followers of local religions may now target minority Christians.
The division has not only changed the region geographically that supports the proselytizing missionaries but also characteristically. It is not the dawn of a new country but also emergence of a new era, and a new dawn for remaining North Sudan. It is emergence of “second republic” as President Omar al-Bashir called in his first address to the National Assembly, on July 12. Mr. Bashir outlined the principles of the second republic, saying they “affirm a commitment to the rule of law, the extension of justice, the propagation of a patriotic spirit, the guarantee of citizens’ rights, impartiality and transparency in decision making, integrity in public spending, and accountability and dependence on the standards of efficiency.”
Features of future of “second republic” have become topic of the day among intellectuals in the Republic of the Sudan.
“Sudan has witnessed a geographic change; it lost one-quarter of its area,” said Sana al-Awad, Sudan’s state minister of information. “France alternated between being a monarchy and a republic until emergence of its ‘fifth republic’. She added, “Saudi Arabia’s ‘third state’ was declared when the kingdom’s area significantly expanded. Likewise, Sudan enters a new historical era, that of the second republic.”
“A new republic should mean the introduction of something new, a different system of government, new laws and a new constitution that accommodates everybody,” Adlan el-Hardello, a Political Science Professor at the University of Khartoum, said.
Mr. Izdihar Juma’a, a member of the northern wing of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, the party that governs South Sudan said, “The N.C.P. dominates governmental institutions. If it starts with itself then that would be good.”
While 96.7 per cent population in (North) Sudan is Muslim, they are ethnically divided in Arabs and non-Arabs. President Omar al-Bahir declared before the referendum of 2005: “If south Sudan secedes, we will change the Constitution and then there will be no time to speak of diversity of culture and ethnicity.” Mr. Bashir said: “Shariah and Islam will be the main source for the Constitution, Islam the official religion and Arabic the official language,” he said.
As regards political future of Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, that remain in the North but have seen insurgency in the past, President Bashir declared in his speech to the National Assembly: “On Thursday, July 14, the Qatari capital, Doha, will witness, Insha-Allah (God willing), the signing of the final document between the Sudanese government and the Liberation and Justice Movement, one of several Darfur rebel movements that will end the Darfur crisis”.
There remain two major groups, the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudanese Liberation Army/Movement who have to come to terms. It is feared that they have emboldened by the creation of South Sudan and certain vested interests are trying to pollute their minds. Arrest warrant procured from International Criminal Court (ICC), blaming al-Bashir of “genocide” and “war crimes” for his actions to quell rebellion in Darfur, is seen as an effort to fuel the armed insurgency in Sudan. The arrest warrant is actively supported by NATO, controlled by US, UK, France, Italy, etc. which is bombarding Libya to help rebels of the state and to gain control of oil resources there.
Mr. Bashir also stated in his speech that deadlines for “popular consultations” to determine the political future of South Kordofan and Blue Nile would be extended to “allow the people of both states more time to consult and remedy the situations in both states.”
But whether the declaration of a second republic indicates that the Sudanese politicians have learned lessons from South Sudan’s independence remains uncertain, critics contend.
Sudan has been an important country in the region. Now, when the long standing problem has been solved amicably, Sudan and South Sudan must try to sort out remaining irritants so that a new era of peace, prosperity and development may dawn in this region.