India goes to elections one more time. With a mind-boggling 970 million registered voters, more than 2,600 political parties are in the ring vying for 543 seats in the lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha). The sheer scale of India’s electoral process makes it one of the largest and most complex in the world.
With over 15 million election workers mobilized across the nation, the electoral exercise will span a million polling stations. The election will be conducted in seven phases, from April to June, with different regions voting at different times. Election campaigns conducted by political parties are a good barometer to assess their “DNA” and check how serious these parties are about solving the “real” issues of the people.
India’s ruling party, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) knows that the Indian voter can be easily swayed by emotive religious issues and has designed its election campaign accordingly. In contrast, the Opposition led by the INDIA bloc spearheaded by the Indian National Congress is relying on anti-incumbency, caste politics, and promises of pro-poor economic policies.
The BJP went public over its election strategy and electoral targets in its National Council Meeting in New Delhi on February 17 and 18. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third consecutive term in office and as usual, will be the face of BJP’s campaign. The BJP has set a target of winning 370 seats in the Lok Sabha. Along with other allies that make the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) the BJP plans to achieve 400 plus seats in the lower house of Parliament.
Some analysts have pointed out the symbolism of the number 370 that is linked to the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir (a highly contested move taken by the Modi government in 2019). BJP is also targeting an additional 370 votes in every polling booth. Some of the key aspects of the BJP election campaign include (1) Emphasis on the interests of the party over individual candidates. (2) Expectation of many sitting Members of Parliament making way for new candidates. (3) Continuous induction of leaders from other political parties. (4) Having alliances with regional parties. (5) The general messaging would focus on converting welfare measures and good governance of the Modi era into votes. (6) The Opposition would be attacked on corruption, and dynastic succession and projected as a disparate and desperate opportunistic gang that is incapable and incompetent to form the next government. The tone and tenor of the campaign would be aggressive.
However, the key weapon in the BJP’s armor would always remain the divisive and communal agenda to appeal to its core voter base and indirectly to those who could be influenced by calls for the mobilization of Hindu solidarity. Some of the issues that would be raked towards a sectarian and polarizing campaign would be to highlight how the BJP-led government was successful in the hollowing of Article 370 and the construction of a Ram temple in Ayodhya. The Ram temple would be projected as a manifestation of Ram Rajya and an emblem of national unity (effectively dismembering the Muslim community from the nation’s nationalistic vision and canvas).
The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) consisting of 28 opposition parties poses the main challenge to the BJP in this election. INDIA is primarily led by the Indian National Congress, which secured a mere 52 seats in the Lok Sabha, while the BJP clinched 303 seats. However, this time Congress is more confident of getting more seats after the successful pan-India yatras conducted by its tallest leader – Rahul Gandhi.
The seat-sharing arrangements within the INDIA alliance are always a “work in progress” but despite many breakups and re-alignments, the coalition has managed to stitch a credible alternative to the BJP juggernaut. The INDIA election campaign mainly revolves around addressing the segment of the electorate that is neither a core-BJP supporter nor loyal to any party. Their main thrust is to focus on promises of even better welfare schemes than the BJP and highlight the failure of the government on the economic front. For example, the Congress manifesto for 2024 titled Nyay Patra (Document for Justice) offers 25 guarantees under categories like justice for youth, women, farmers, workers, and equity. It promises to “reverse the damage” allegedly done by the Modi-led NDA government. A significant promise is to remove a 50% cap on reservation for SCs, STs, and OBCs, and conduct a nation-wide caste census. A new law for “bail is the rule, jail is the exception” would be framed, along with a review of laws interfering with the right to privacy and, an individual’s choice of food, dress, or marriage. There would be an unconditional cash transfer of ₹1 lakh/year to every poor family under the Mahalakshmi scheme. Legal right to MSP, right to health with cashless insurance up to ₹25 lakhs under universal health scheme, right to apprenticeship with annual stipend of ₹1 lakh, abolition of application fees for government exams and posts and a one-time writing off of all educational loans including unpaid interest – are some of the promises the Congress hopes will reverse its political fortunes.
Undeniably, the aggression displayed and venom spewed by the BJP leadership cannot be matched by the Congress and INDIA leadership. For example, when Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge passed certain remarks on Article 370, he was immediately attacked by the BJP leadership including the Prime Minister who said, “This reflects the mindset of tukde-tukde gang, that they have started speaking this language. Can these people, who speak this language, be forgiven? Can they be forgiven for disrespecting the martyrs?”
In contrast, when the PM likened the Congress manifesto to be similar to the manifesto of the Muslim League, it took a long time for the party to react and make a complaint to the Election Commission. As the election days draw closer, it is expected that the NDA election campaign will become more divisive and polarizing. Will the Indian voter be persuaded by bread-and-butter issues of the INDIA alliance or will the voter prefer the majoritarian vision of the BJP? Whatever, the voter decides, India is set for a tumultuous period in the years ahead.