The ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) marks a transformative moment in the Middle East, reshaping the regional balance of power. Assad’s 13-year rule, defined by alliances with Iran and survival amidst a brutal civil war, ended abruptly as HTS forces captured Damascus, compelling Assad to seek refuge in Russia. This dramatic shift not only underscores HTS’s ascent but also disrupts the alliances that have long shaped Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
HTS has emerged as a dominant force in the region, leveraging strategic alliances, military expertise, and diplomatic sophistication to reshape the dynamics of modern conflict. Collaborators like National Front for Liberation (NFL), Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Izza, and Nur EddinZinki Movement played crucial roles in dismantling Assad’s regime, marking the symbolic end of an era characterised by authoritarianism and human rights abuses.
The NFL’s cohesive coalition and tactical adaptability, Ahrar al-Sham’s substantial manpower, and Jaish al-Izza’s effective use of Western support collectively undermined Assad’s grip on northern Syria. The eventual collaboration of the Nur EddinZinki Movement highlighted the pragmatism of the opposition coalition. The fall of Damascus signals a transformative chapter for Syria, underscoring the vulnerability of autocratic systems when faced with unified resistance and external pressures.
Disruption of Iran’s Regional Strategy
Tehran stands at a crossroads as its regional strategy faces unprecedented challenges. With resources stretched thin by sanctions and involvement in the Hamas-Israel conflict, Iran struggles to maintain its influence amid the weakening of the Assad regime in Syria and the rise of groups like HTS. These shifts highlight the limitations of militarised approaches to regional hegemony, as the failure to build genuine connections with local populations has left its “Axis of Resistance” increasingly vulnerable.
The loss of Syria as a strategic ally threatens Tehran’s ability to project power and complicates its access to Lebanon and the Mediterranean, which are vital for supporting proxies like Hezbollah. This precarious situation forces Iran to recalibrate its priorities and partnerships, balancing its regional position with the need to avoid further escalation. The unravelling of Iran’s influence in Syria underscores the importance of sustainable alliances rooted in shared interests and mutual respect, serving as a cautionary tale against sectarian and coercive strategies.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, regional powers must seize the opportunity to prioritise people-centred coalitions over rivalries driven by external agendas, embracing governance models that emphasise reconciliation and reconstruction over conflict and competition. Such a shift requires bold political vision and moral clarity to transcend narrow self-interests and work collectively toward a future of stability and shared prosperity in the region.
Impact on Israel’s Genocidal Attacks on Gaza
As Israel intensifies its genocidal airstrikes on Gaza, recently resulting in the deaths of over 30 Palestinians in Nuseirat Camp, the shifting power dynamics in Syria carry significant implications for the Israel-Hamas war. These developments complicate an already intricate struggle, influencing Hamas’s strategies and its relationships with regional actors.
The rise of HTS and Iran’s cautious stance amid the Assad regime’s decline have disrupted traditional alliances, making it increasingly challenging, observers say, for Hamas to rely on Damascus for logistical support. This precarious situation underscores the urgency for Hamas to foster unity among various Palestinian factions, particularly as escalating violence and confrontations with Israel highlight the need for a cohesive front.
In light of Syria’s lessons about the dangers of external reliance, Hamas must pivot towards grassroots empowerment within Palestinian territories, aligning its strategies with the aspirations and rights of the people it represents. The struggle for justice in Palestine is fundamentally a human one, rooted in dignity, self-determination, and freedom. By centring these values and strengthening connections with their communities, Palestinian groups can build resilience against external pressures and remain steadfast in their mission. The recent escalation of hostilities, including intensified Israeli military operations, further emphasises the necessity of grassroots support, as Hamas’s ability to galvanise public sentiment and maintain popular backing is crucial to its effectiveness as a political entity.
Moreover, the power shift in Syria shapes international perceptions of Hamas, which seeks to establish itself as a legitimate actor in the Palestinian struggle. If Hamas can adeptly navigate these changes, it may emerge as a resilient force within the dynamic geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Ultimately, the recent developments in Syria highlight the critical importance of internal cohesion, productive regional relationships, and grassroots legitimacy for Hamas.
Broader Middle East Implications
The evolving situation in Syria and beyond signals a pivotal moment for the Middle East. The rise of HTS, the recalibration of Iran’s strategy, and the broader shifts in regional alliances reveal both challenges and opportunities for the future. To break free from the cycles of conflict that have defined the region, a new paradigm of governance is essential – one that prioritises inclusivity, justice, and the voices of common citizens.
Regional actors must recognise that sustainable stability cannot be imposed from above. It requires the active participation of local communities in shaping their destinies. This means addressing the root causes of conflict, such as inequality, marginalisation, and the legacy of authoritarianism. A truly just and sustainable Middle East requires a rethinking of these dynamics, with a focus on empowering local actors and fostering genuine regional cooperation.
The Role of External Powers
The developments in Syria draw intense international scrutiny. For the US, HTS’s rise presents a mixed opportunity to counter Iran’s influence while grappling with the group’s Islamic orientation. Washington’s response will likely involve a combination of strategic containment and cautious engagement, balancing its priorities with broader geopolitical considerations.
Russia, having backed Assad, faces questions about its regional strategy and future role in Syria. The Kremlin’s support for Assad was a cornerstone of its Middle Eastern policy, providing a foothold in the region and a platform for projecting power.
China, too, has an interest in the unfolding situation. While Beijing’s involvement in the Middle East has traditionally been economic rather than political, the changes in Syria could prompt a re-evaluation of its strategy. As a rising global power, China’s approach to the Middle East will likely be shaped by its broader geopolitical ambitions and the need to safeguard its economic interests.
A New Era in the Middle East
The developments in Syria and the broader Middle East reflect the complexities of resistance, governance, and regional politics. The fall of Assad, while significant, is only one chapter in a much larger story. The real challenge lies in building a future that is grounded in justice and equity, transcending the legacies of authoritarianism and conflict.
The lessons from HTS’s rise, Iran’s shifting strategy, and the ongoing struggles of the Palestinian movement underscore the importance of grassroots empowerment and inclusive governance. The way ahead requires not just a strategic vision but also a steadfast dedication to the principles of dignity, justice, and self-determination. These principles must guide the region as it navigates an uncertain future, ensuring that the sacrifices of its people, especially the Palestinians, are not in vain.
[The writer is Assistant Secretary, Jamaat-e-Islami Hind]