Arshad Shaikh analyses the staggering political developments in Maharashtra where the BJP managed to break the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) into two. Ajit Pawar along with eight NCP MLAs joined the Shinde-Fadnavis government. While the ruling party is gloating over another feather in its cap through its time-tested Operation Lotus, a pseudonym for poaching lawmakers from the Opposition Camp, the move may backfire in the long run. Value-based politics takes a “maha-hit” through “Pawar politics” and it may turn out to be a pyrrhic victory for the party with a difference.
On 02 July 2023, Ajit Pawar, a senior leader of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the Leader of the Opposition in Maharashtra and the nephew of NCP supremo, Sharad Pawar, joined the Shiv Sena and BJP-led government by taking oath as the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra. Ajit Pawar took the oath in Raj Bhavan along with eight NCP MLAs who were inducted as ministers in the Shinde-Fadnavis government. The NCP has 53 MLAs in the Vidhan Sabha. Ajit Pawar claims to have the backing of 40 MLAs and expects seven more to join him soon.
Following the coup in the NCP, the broad configuration in the 288-member Assembly is as follows: BJP is the largest party in Maharashtra with 105 MLAs followed by INC with 45, NCP (Ajit Pawar) with 40, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) with 40 and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) with 17 and NCP (Sharad Pawar) with 13 MLAs.
News about the vertical split in the NCP sent shockwaves across political circles and set off a series of events like the expulsion of those who deserted the party and a scramble by the NCP to salvage its remaining MLAs and retain the position of Leader of the Opposition in the legislature. A disqualification petition was also moved against the nine MLAs to the Maharashtra Speaker Rahul Narwekar.
The eight MLAs who took oath as ministers along with Ajit Pawar are Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse Patil, Hasan Mushrif, Dhananjay Munde, DharmaraobabaAtram, Aditi Tatkare, Sanjay Bansode, and Anil Patil. Senior NCP leader and Rajya Sabha MP, Praful Patel also joined the Ajit camp.
In 2012, the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) of Maharashtra registered a case against Ajit Pawar and several other people in connection with the irrigation scam. The ACB alleges that Pawar and his associates caused a loss of over `70,000 crores to the state exchequer. Similarly, others in the Ajit camp like Chhagan Bhujbal, Hasan Mushrif, and Praful Patel are also in the shadows of the Enforcement Directorate.
A POLITICAL SOMERSAULT THAT EXPOSES THE MORAL CHARADE
For almost two decadesand a half, the BJP projected Ajit Pawar as the symbol of corruption and nepotism in Maharashtra. Today he sits pretty with BJP Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis as his equal in the government. In fact, just a few days before on 27 June, while addressing a rally in Bhopal, PM Modi said, “If I talk about the NCP, it is also accused of scams worth `70,000 crores. Maharashtra Coop Bank scam, Maharashtra Irrigation scam, Disproportionate Asset scam… the list is very long. The corruption meter of these parties never goes down.”
What changed overnight? How was the allegedly most corrupt politician in the state made the Deputy CM? Were the words of the PM an election “jumla”? At Bhopal, the PM boasted of a “Modi guarantee”, saying, “If they (the corrupt Opposition) are giving a guarantee of doing scams then Modi is also giving an assurance, it is my guarantee to every scamster – action is certain.”
Well, that guarantee seems to have expired within a week with the induction of Ajit Pawar in their government. Nevertheless, more than this rhetoric, the entire political drama in Maharashtra has exposed the moral charade of the ruling party and unveiled its double-talk on fighting corruption. The Maha-coup engineered by the BJP puts it in the same league as the parties it blamed for money laundering and looting the public exchequer. By collaborating with the NCP, the BJP has lost the high moral ground it claimed to occupy. It has completely abandoned its tag of “the party with a difference.” By compromising with corruption in such a brazen manner, the largest political party in India has weakened democracy and allowed its critics to call it “the party that blurs its differences with the corrupt.”
AN IDEOLOGICAL COMPROMISE
The BJP berated Uddhav Thackeray for abandoning its partnership that was first established in 1995 by joining hands with the Congress and the NCP. It blamed Uddhav for diluting its stand on Hindutva and deviating from the ideological path of Shiva Sena’s founder Balasaheb Thackeray. Ajit Pawar has not joined the BJP. He claims to be the real NCP. It means that he has not renegaded on the ideological position of his party.
Some of the promises from the 2019 election manifesto of the NCP read, “We are committed to protect the interests of minorities. Cases of violence will be investigated in a time bound manner and disposal will be targeted in special courts. Equal Opportunities Commission will be set up. Special assistance will be given to set up institutions for minorities. Judicial powers will be given to Wakf Board. Efforts will be made to improve the standard of living in minority-dominated areas; focus will be made on improving the infrastructure for changing their lifestyle. Triple Talaq Bill, in its current form without taking the Community into confidence, will be scrapped. Minority students will be aided with 50 per cent of their fees for higher education in private institutions by the Government. Long pending matters in the judicial system will be reviewed and justice will be delivered expeditiously.”
This is exactly what the BJP calls “pseudo-secularism” and “minority-appeasement”. Ajit’s NCP cannot afford to disown its “secularist” agenda. Is this not an ideological compromise for the BJP? Going forward, it cannot rebuke secular parties of pandering to the minorities.
ELECTORAL RECORD OF DESERTERS
Operation Lotus is a term used to describe the alleged practice of the BJP of poaching or enticing MLAs and MPs from other parties in order to gain or retain power. The BJP-SS government did not lack in numbers to run the government in Maharashtra, so pulling Ajit Pawar was to neither bolster nor form a government. The most important reason for engineering the split in the NCP was the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In some ways this was “Operation e-Lotus” (e for elections). By dividing the NCP, the BJP aimed to deliver a body blow to the newly crystallising Opposition Unity spearheaded by the likes of Sharad Pawar and Nitish Yadav.
The BJP is already boasting of sweeping Maharashtra in 2024 after downsizing the Shiv Sena and the NCP. Although this policy has successfully led to changes in the power equation in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Maharashtra (twice), the accrual in terms electoral dividends is not significant.
Historically, defectors have not done well in subsequent elections if we go by anecdotal evidence. In the case of Maharashtra, Raj Thackeray could not take the vote bank created by Bal Thackeray and voters remained firmly with Uddhav. Eknath Shinde too shall meet the same fate.
Similarly, the Maratha vote bank will not go to Ajit but remain with Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule. Manpreet Singh Badal could not take away the vote bank of Parkash Singh Badal. Pashupati Paras (the younger brother of Ram Vilas Paswan), Shivpal Yadav (the younger brother of Mulayam Singh Yadav), Sadhu Yadav and Subhash Yadav (after leaving Rashtriya Janata Dal) could not dent the voter base created by their founding leader. Operation e-Lotus is likely to be too clever by half.