Third Front has been a possibility but overambitious leaders have always spoiled the equation of a credible alternate to Congress and BJP. The biggest hurdle is the mentality which is based on numbers and the multiple agenda where one supersedes the other. The only common point which emerges and binds them together is the anger against the government and the opposition or to climb the ladder of political hierarchy which could be next to impossible for them as an ally.
The talk of formation of third front or being open to adjustment in the third front loop after the polls is based purely on the likely possible scenario after the polls which itself reveals lack of commitment for such an alternative and pure arithmetic. There is an ample amount of space for an alternate polity but who would occupy that space is an equation that seems to emerge from those who are disillusioned from both the Congress and the BJP. Much of the space has already been occupied by AAP and much needs to be explored by the like-minded regional parties aspiring to provide an alternate for people.
Leaders in the third front are overambitious for the top post and all those who have raised the possibility of a third front after the polls want to claim their position depending on the number of seats they would get and it is by the number that they would stake claim their position in the formation of the third front and by that equation it would be decided as to who would lead the formed equation if such a situation arises after the polls. The only yardstick that could help the idea of third front gain acceptance and popularity is that the leaders of the core group work toward its formation with selfless service without keeping a fix eye on the prime ministerial ambition. Otherwise the talk on an alternate in the form of third front is a foregone conclusion and noting much remains to be seen or read in between the lines. Towards the end, it may end up or degenerate once again after pressure tactics to claim their respective regional concerns.
The possibility of a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition gained momentum recently when leaders of Janata Dal (Secular), JD (U) and Left parties met in Delhi. Even though they failed to mosaic the pre-poll alliance yet these leaders agreed to hold talks in the last week of February or the first week of March to find out the modalities of post-poll equations. CPM politburo member Sitaram Yechury has categorically made the point that the formation of third front alliance will only take shape after the polls and since 1977 whenever there has been an alliance, it has been after the polls. The CPM has entered into an alliance with Jayalalita’s AIADMK and is trying to persuade other political parties. CPM is also trying to break ice with BJD in Orissa and Samajwadi Party in UP.
It is because of the aggressive ambition to notch up the coveted post of prime minister that the third front has deliberately kept the issue of PM candidate on the backburner. Regional parties depending on their outcome of seats have suggested different ways to select prime ministerial candidate. Former Prime Minister Deve Gowda has kept these regional leaders guessing that they could be the one and it is because of this suspense that these leaders are trying to keep all options to fit in the post-poll equation come what may. Most of these regional leaders are very strong in their bastion and will use that clout to demand their concern either in the possibilities of any third front alternative or any coalition government.
Many believe that the third front leaders, while taking cues from the verdict in the last assembly elections in Delhi, want themselves to be on the platter of an alternate to Congress and BJP if AAP emerges on the driver’s seat or has any role to play in the post-poll scenario. The third front, keeping all options on the card, may adjust accordingly after the polls. Replying to a question whether AAP would be a partner in the third front, Yechury said that AAP has to clarify their position on certain issues and principles that have brought the 11 parties together. He also clarified that the aim of the new grouping would be to bring relief on the economic front and protect people from communal forces. Efforts are on to unite leaders and parties that participated in the October 30 anti-communalism convention last year.
The emergence of multi-party or regional forces has its own advantages and disadvantages. The first and foremost is the stability factor. Parties flex muscles to dictate their own terms and conditions and if the party that leads the coalition government does not agree then there is always the possibility to bring down the government. In the past, coalition governments led by big national parties have lasted only three terms. In 1996, the United Front was a coalition with 46 seats of Janata Dal supported by 12 other parties with outside support by the Congress.
Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Jayalalita have their own equations to and each most aspiring to lead the third front if it comes out to be depending on the situation and their own numbers. Many poll predictions have shown that neither the BJP- nor the Congress-led coalition is likely to cross the mark and therefore hung parliament seems the most likely under the given situation. Under such circumstances regional players or the possibility of any other alternate may hold the key in the run up to the government formation.
The 11 parties that are in consultation to form the third front are: Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (United), AIADMK, Asom Gana Parishad, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, Janata Dal (Secular), Biju Janata Dal and the four Left parties. Post-poll numbers and reality will determine as to how many of them would remain in that loop or drift away from this formation to give new shape to any other coalition.