Despite conflicting signals about whether the United States has actually decided to launch a military strike against Iran, the positions expressed by countries across the region – from South Asia to Central Asia, passing through the Arab Gulf – have revealed a landscape that points to policies different from those pursued by certain circles in the United States and Israel and their allies.
The chaos feared by Arab, Gulf, and Islamic states in the face of what they see as an Israeli expansionist tendency has become a ready-made recipe for destabilising several countries. This fear may be pushing a number of key states in this arena toward shaping a coordinated move. Its most visible headline has been opposition to a military strike on Iran, but it is intertwined with other burning files, from Sudan to Yemen and Somalia, and from Palestine to Syria.
While it is still too early to speak of a coherent Arab–Islamic bloc seeking to play an effective regional role and prevent the region from being left to what is seen as a reckless alliance between the Donald Trump administration and the “Likud–Religious Zionism” coalition in Israel, indicators have nevertheless emerged of a serious diplomatic push. This effort aims first to influence the American decision-making process and, second, to shield the region from adventures that could drive it toward dangerous outcomes threatening its stability.
This, for now, appears to be the headline of the scene that has led President Donald Trump to postpone a military attack on Iran.
Trump, who explained the background of his decision on Friday, was keen to firmly deny reports claiming that Arab and Israeli leaders had persuaded him not to strike Iran in response to the killing of anti-regime protesters. He justified his decision by saying that Iran had in fact cancelled the execution of eight hundred citizens.
In Israel, meanwhile, according to what The New York Times reported citing an American official, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had also asked Trump to delay any potential strike to give Israel time to strengthen its defensive capabilities.
But Arab and Islamic countries were pushing in a different direction, based on a vision that went beyond concern over the possibility of Iranian retaliatory strikes against American bases and interests in the Gulf – important as that concern may be.
Consistent reports indicated that Saudi Arabia exerted pressure on the U.S. administration to refrain from striking Iran, alongside efforts by Qatar and the Sultanate of Oman to promote a diplomatic solution based on dialogue between Tehran and Washington.
The New York Times quoted a Gulf official as saying that four Arab countries had carried out intensive diplomatic moves over the past week with both the United States and Iran in an attempt to prevent a threatened American attack on Iran, a step these countries feared would have repercussions extending across the entire region.
The official explained that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Sultanate of Oman, and Egypt were involved in these diplomatic efforts, and that they informed Washington that any attack would have security and economic consequences for the region as a whole, which would ultimately be reflected back on the United States itself.
This stance did not amount to support for the Iranian regime, which is accused of destabilising Arab countries over the past years. Rather, it reflected a deeper concern about the repercussions of a war that could open the door to the scenario far more dangerous than the current reality.
[by Wael Al-Hajjar in Al-Quds Al-Arabi]