The grandiose Bullet Train or High-Speed Rail Corridor (HSRC) project between Ahmedabad and Mumbai was initiated in 2017. It is being executed with the financial and technological assistance of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The initial estimated cost of the project was Rs.1.18 lakh crore and the JICA committed a loan of Rs. 83000 crores at very easy terms and the balance Rs.35000 crore is to be spent by the Governments of Maharashtra and Gujarat as well as the Union Government. The project suffered delays of nearly 3 years due to COVID-19 epidemic and the time-consuming land acquisition process. As a result, the first bucket of concrete was poured in Feb.1922 after completing the survey and necessary investigations. Now the project is likely to be completed by Dec. 2029. However, Bullet trains will start running in a limited stretch of 70 kms length between Surat and Bilimora stations from 15th August 2027. The project is being executed under the administrative control of the National High-Speed Corridor Corporation (NHSCC).
The total length of the corridor is 508 kms and it will have 12 stations. The Bullet trains will run under two categories. In the first category, Express Bullet trains will have only two stops at Surat and Vadodara and cover the 508 kms distance in 2 hours, giving an average speed of 255 km per hour. The Non-express trains will stop at all the ten intermediate stations and cover the distance in 3 hours. Because of the cost over-runs, the estimate has been revised to Rs.1.98 lakh crore, giving per kilometre cost of Rs.400 crores. The estimate may further escalate by the time of completion of the project. JICA will not enhance the amount of its loan beyond Rs.83000 crore limit and the additional expenditure will be borne by the three governments mentioned above.
The train service will be available for 18 hours a day from 6 am to midnight. For the first nine years, the frequency of train service will be one hour. The total daily ridership will be 36000(one way 18000). The number of trains will be increased in the tenth year and the likely ridership will be 57000 per day for the next decade. Frequency will be further increased in subsequent decades depending upon the availability of the traffic volume.
But looking at the mind-boggling project cost, an analysis of economics and utility or cost-benefit ratio of the project becomes essential. However, one Bullet train project must always be there in the country irrespective of its cost as project of high-end technology will act as a brand ambassador for highlighting India’s technological excellence. Also experience gained during the execution of the first project will help in fine-tuning the execution process of the future projects to achieve new milestones in terms of efficiency and the cost. One reason of high cost is that 90% of the railway track is elevated and also under sea tunnel at Thane creek.
But if you deeply examine the cost vs utility of the high-speed corridor project, then the project appears to be economically unsound for the following reasons.
- A bullet train service is beyond the reach of the common man as he cannot afford to pay the fare for a berth in the AC chair car which will be 15-20% higher than fare of the Shatabdi train.
2.The average cost of laying the Metro rail line with all contingent works (both elevated and underground) is around Rs.350 crore against Rs. 400 crore per km in case of the bullet train but number of users will be much higher because of the high frequency of train service of 2 to 4 minutes.
The government can build and provide metro rail service in ten towns with 60 kms coverage per town at the equivalent cost of a 500 kms long high-speed corridor. Metro service with 60 kms coverage is sufficient for a town like Ludhiana (population 20 lakhs). Presently, the total length of all the running metro lines in Delhi is 395 kms and the record ridership on a festival day has been 78 lakhs while the average yearly ridership in 2023 was 67 lakhs per day. With the same yardstick, the yearly average daily ridership in ten cities will be at least 85 lakhs. Assuming average distance travelled by a Metro rider in ten cities to be 25 kms per day, the total journey length of all the 85 lakh travellers will be 21.25 crore kms per day. On the other hand, during the first 9 years, the daily ridership on the Ahmedabad-Mumbai Bullet train service will be 36000 persons with each person travelling an average distance of 250 kms. Accordingly, the total journey coverage per day would be 90 lakh kms against 21.25 crore kms in case of metro service. The ridership will be increased to 57000 per day during the next ten years and the ratio of total daily journey coverage in the Metro rail service will be 15 times the coverage of the bullet train service. These figures show that investment in metro rail service will still be more beneficial than in the High-Speed Corridors.
- Another more useful proposal would be to build semi-high-speed corridors instead of the high-speed ones. The cost of such corridors (Rs 45 crore per km) will be nine times less and such corridors will serve both the common man and the elites simultaneously. These corridors will be like the normal double track rail lines except that the tracks will be designed to withstand a speed of 200 kms per hour and the minimum distance between two consecutive stations will be 100 kms to give an average speed of 140 kms per hour with trains running at a maximum speed of 180 kms per hour. The Delhi-Bhopal Shatabdi train runs at a speed of 152 km per hour in some stretches and the average speed comes to 97 kms per hour because of large number of stations (nearly 130) in between. Had there been only 8 stations between Delhi and Bhopal, then this very Shatabdi train could easily give an average speed of 110-115 kms per hour. This is because that crossing of each non-stop station slows down the speed of the approaching express train. Therefore, if a separate railway track is laid to withstand a speed of 200 km per hour, the express trains can run at a hassle-free maximum speed of 160-170 kmph to give an average speed of 140 km per hour and a person can reach Mumbai from Ahmedabad in 3.75 hours instead of 2.0 hours and the saving in cost will be tremendous though loss of travelling time will not be so significant.
The above analysis shows that building semi-high-speed corridors will be more utilitarian proposition than the high speed corridors because we can build 9 semi-high speed corridors at the cost one high speed corridor and the trains can have both A.C. and non-A.C coaches.
The Government of India has proposed 7 high speed corridors in the Budget 2026. These corridors are Mumbai-Pune, Pune-Hyderabad, Hydrabad-Banglore, Hyderabad-Chennai, Chennai-Bangalore, Delhi-Varanasi and Varanasi-Siliguri. Delhi-Ahmedabad corridor has already been approved. The total length of these 8 proposed high speed corridors is 5000 kms and their total cost of construction at present rates will be whooping Rs. 20 lakhcrore. Whether JICA will be able to finance the 8 corridors in future is anybody’s guess. Otherwise, it will be very difficult to arrange so much funds by the States and the Railway Ministry.