The world has witnessed a Peoples’ Revolutionary Movement which began with Tunisia followed by Egypt, Libya, and Syria. But the real challenge has just begun. “It’s hard enough to start a revolution,…even harder to sustain it,…hardest of all to win it. But it’s only afterward, once we’ve won, that the real difficulties begin”, said Mohammed ul Arabi bin Mahdi.
The ongoing revolutions in the Arab world signify another iteration of a process the world has witnessed before in various regions, including Southern and Eastern Europe, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Observers were wondering why the cloud of democracy passed over the Arab world without raining. This question led analysts to believe in what was called “Arab exceptionalism,” or the alleged incompatibility of the societies of the region with democratic development. This claim resonated with the conventional argument that Arab ruling elites used to justify their repressive policies against their own citizens on the grounds that ‘people are not ready for democracy.’ The Tunisian revolution came in early 2011 to refute these allegations and prove that the Arab peoples desire dignity and freedom as much as any other people. Hope we all do not forget the rap song by Hamada Ben Amor (Alternative name: El General) which was named as the anthem of Jasmine revolution that triggered the entire Arab spring and stormed Al-Nahda party into power.
Despite the differences in the scope of the uprisings that swept the region, the similarities between them are striking, especially in terms of their origins as well as the strategies pursued by regimes and their challengers, notwithstanding variations in how these factors pronounced themselves across different contexts.
Numerous factors have led to the protests, including issues such as dictatorship or absolute monarchy, human rights violations, government corruption (demonstrated by Wikileaks diplomatic cables),economic decline, unemployment, extreme poverty, and a number of demographic structural factors,such as a large percentage of educated but dissatisfied youth within the population.Also, some, like Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Zizek attribute the 2009 Iranian protests as one of the reasons behind the Arab Spring.The 2010 Kyrgyzstani revolution might also have been one of the factors, which influenced the beginning of the Arab Spring.
The catalysts for the revolts in all Northern African and Persian Gulf countries have been the concentration of wealth in the hands of autocrats in power for decades, insufficient transparency of its redistribution, corruption, and especially the refusal of the youth to accept the status quo. Increasing food prices and global famine rates have also been a significant factor,as they involve threats to food security worldwide and prices that approach levels of the 2007–2008 world food price crisis.Amnesty International singled out Wikileaks’ release of US diplomatic cables as a catalyst for the revolts.
In recent decades rising living standards and literacy rates as well as the increased availability of higher education, have resulted in an improved human development index in the affected countries. The tension between rising aspirations and a lack of government reform may have been a contributing factor in all of the protests. Many of the Internet-savvy youth of these countries have, increasingly over the years, been viewing autocrats and absolute monarchies as anachronisms. A university professor of Oman, Al-Najma Zidjaly referred to this upheaval as youth quake.
Tunisia and Egypt, the first to witness major uprisings, differ from other North African and Middle Eastern nations such as Algeria and Libya in that they lack significant oil revenue, and were thus unable to make concessions to calm the masses. The relative success of the democratic Republic of Turkey, with its substantially free and vigorously contested but peaceful elections, fast-growing but liberal economy, secular constitution but Islamist government, created a model (the Turkish model) if not a motivation for protestors in neighbouring states.
With the exception of Tunisia, all uprisings faced the challenge of divisions across religious/sectarian (Egypt, Syria and Bahrain) or tribal lines (Yemen and Libya). This gives autocrats and their allies a good opportunity to exploit divisions within their challengers and weaken them. The demands of the revolutionaries thus far united these diverse communities despite efforts by pro-regime forces to exploit socio-cultural divisions within the opposition. Ejecting autocrats through military coups, along the lines of Egypt and Tunisia, certainly comes with risks and may reinforce the persistence of tension and chaos on the ground. These uprisings also face the risk and challenge of foreign interference from Arab regimes that fear the spread of the Arab Spring into their own countries, or from other regional powers, like Iran, that fear losing influence as a result of these revolutions.
The real challenges have just begun in Egypt as the previous leaders went on to change many rules before stepping down. The restoration of domestic security promises to pose an especially difficult challenge for President Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first-ever freely-elected head of state, who has vowed to improve the country’s lot within his first hundred days in office. Morsi’s ‘100 day plan,’ in effect since 2 July, was drawn up by Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist group from which he hails – with the aim of ending chronic traffic congestion, fuel shortages, bread scarcities, poor public sanitation and an ongoing security vacuum.
A number of difficult economic challenges are forcefully imposing themselves on his agenda. One year and a half since the revolution began, the Egyptian economy is still suffering from a severe downturn. If this economic trend continues, it will result in a serious crisis that will be associated with political and social repercussions.
The biggest challenge facing the new President is how to resort growth and market confidence and how to coax investors into financing projects again. The second challenge facing him will be addressing the Egyptian street’s high and mounting expectations. The sharp economy downturn is translating into a budget deficit and depressing state revenue. The next challenge is the absence of a general framework identifying future economic trends. All the challenges faced by Egypt will also be experienced by the other Arab countries who have witnessed the Arab Spring. These indicators have raised serious concerns about the exchange rate in Egypt, which has remained relatively stable over the part eighteen months. However, it is unclear whether it will be possible to continue the Egyptian pound given deteriorating indicators regarding the country’s ability to attract foreign currency, including the significant decline in tourism.
Unfortunately, these risks will continue to challenge the spread of the Arab Spring and attempts by Arab revolutionaries to advance transformative change. They face the impossible task of countering attempts by local pro-regime forces or foreign actors to undermine these revolutions by spreading chaos and social disorder. This only underscores the need for them to unite under the umbrella of democracy and national unity, and to raise the slogan of a civil state through a discourse based on economic and social rights in order to attract wide support from their diverse populations. They must also support their communities’ efforts to organise unions and labour coalitions, as these entities will be the main protectors of these revolutions.
After witnessing the Arab Spring, one would definitely say, “Hope is Alive!”. The hope is alive for true democracy, the hope is alive for a corruption-free nation, hope is alive for an unjust free nation, the hope is alive to increase the happiness index, the hope is alive for justice to the people, the hope is alive for a capitalist-free economy, the hope is alive for imperialistic-free ideology and last but not the least, the hope is alive for a just world order.