When Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades spokesman Abu Ubaida threatened that “a crushing defeat in Gaza will end the political future of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” he was apparently not exaggerating. This is the same assessment as that of (US President Joe) Biden and his aides, according to a report by the American newspaper Politico.
Biden visited Tel Aviv last month to support Netanyahu in a way which seemed to have provoked the Arabs, to the point that Jordan, a country allied with America and close to Biden, cancelled a four-country summit. King Abdullah of Jordan, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas were expected to attend the summit.
However, the Politico magazine report said that Biden also secretly urged Netanyahu to proceed cautiously and not expand the war, according to senior officials in the US administration. Biden pushed the Israeli Prime Minister to give priority to the two-state solution.
At one point during the trip, Biden advised Netanyahu to consider the scenario he would leave to his successor. This was an implicit indication that Netanyahu may not remain in power for the duration of what is likely to be a long conflict, according to Politico.
Biden’s aides are already involving a range of other Israeli politicians, some in power and some outside, in the discussion about military action.
According to two senior Biden administration officials as well as two current and former US officials, those talks also provided a method to gauge the thinking of various Israelis who might lead the country.
American officials are speaking with Benny Gantz, a member of the current unity government and Naftali Bennett, former Prime Minister. The former official said that talks were also held, along with other Israeli leaders, with Yair Lapid, the opposition leader and former prime minister.
This administration’s view on Netanyahu’s future is formed due to the belief that he has become significantly weakened due to the Israeli annoyance at the failure of their country’s security and intelligence apparatus in preventing the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which has resulted in the deaths of about 1,400 Israelis. This is particularly when Netanyahu was presenting himself to the Israeli voters as a strong man capable of protecting them without making concessions to the Palestinian Authority.
The growing international opposition to the current Israeli military campaign in Gaza – which has resulted in the deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians – has further shaken Netanyahu’s position, according to the American newspaper report.
American officials expect that any upcoming internal Israeli assessment – and the evaluation conducted by their American counterparts – of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation will likely to draw more condemnation, and cause a greater blow to Netanyahu.
The Biden administration fears that Netanyahu will link his political future to the war and could move at some point to escalate the conflict, according to senior administration officials.
Therefore, despite Biden’s desperate support for Israel, his interests do not match with Netanyahu, the man who wants to burn the entire region to remain in power. The Biden administration has to fight elections in which the supporters of the Palestinian people have now an influence, even if it is limited.
[Arabic Post]
Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque