The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears headed for a historic landslide victory in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections, crossing the 200-seat mark and reducing the Mahagathbandhan to barely 30 seats. This seismic verdict has upended expectations in a state known for its politically sharp electorate and fractured mandates. The BJP has emerged as the single largest party with leads in 89 seats, surpassing its 2020 tally of 74. The Janata Dal-United (JD-U), meanwhile, has nearly doubled its previous tally, jumping from 43 seats in 2020 to leads in 85 seats in 2025. In stark contrast, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), giving NDA a 201 seats, showcasing a near-complete collapse of the Opposition.
Opposition Wiped Out
These results indicate an unparalleled setback for the Mahagathbandhan. The RJD and Congress have been virtually wiped out, raising serious questions about the wide gap between ground-level sentiment and actual results. Political analysts, including Professor D. M. Diwakar, Director of the Development Research Institute (Madhubani), have expressed deep disbelief. Professor Diwakar, who conducted extensive fieldwork during the campaign, describes the results as “unbelievable,” “unprecedented,” and “beyond explanation.”
Ground Reality vs. Results
Prof. Diwakar notes that during his travels across villages and extensive grassroots interactions, not a single indication of such a sweeping NDA wave were observed.Villagers were not particularly critical of the JD-U, but the BJP faced significant resentment. Despite this, the NDA, especially the BJP, is now registering dramatic gains.
Ground reports also paint a contradictory picture:Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies had vacant chairs, with journalists documenting sparse attendance.BJP candidates faced hostility; some were even thrown out of meetings.Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha was physically confronted and prevented from campaigning in his own constituency.
Meanwhile, rallies by Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav drew strong crowds with enthusiastic participation.Despite this visible momentum, the Mahagathbandhan seems headed for a devastating defeat.
Understanding the Dramatic Reversal
As per Prof. Diwakar, margins of victory appear to be thin reaching even to few hundreds to thousands in many seats. However, the NDA’s lead holds, the question therefore remains: What could explain such a landslide? Now let’s check the possible drivers of NDA’s massive lead.
Nitish Kumar’s Welfare Blitzkrieg: One major factor could be Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s late-stage welfare rollout:₹10,000 cash transfer to women under a new employment scheme; Old-age pension increased from ₹400 to ₹1,100 per month; salary hikes forschool cooks and Anganwadi workers. All these schemes were launched within two months of the election, potentially shifting public sentiment sharply in favour of Nitish Kumar.
Transfer of goodwill from Nitish to the BJP: Although public anger toward the BJP was noticeable during field visits, the alliance may have benefitted from Nitish Kumar’s renewed popularity. Since JD-U and BJP are partners, Nitish’s goodwill may have translated into votes for the BJP, giving the party unexpected gains.
RJD–Congress Struggle to Transform Rallies into Electoral Gains: Although the rallies of Tejashwi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi drew large crowds, they failed to translate this turnout into actual votes. A possible reason could be the fear among women of a return to the RJD’s “jungle raj,” associated with issues such as the open circulation of alcohol and rumours that election-time monetary benefits might be taken back later.
Moreover, both leaders were unable to maintain momentum until the end and failed to rebrand the party as a renewed, corruption-free alternative that could attract voters. Rahul Gandhi and other Congress leaders also lacked a strong on-ground presence, unlike BJP and NDA workers who remained active at the grassroots level and focused on voter mobilisation.
SIR in Bihar: A Troubling Precedent: The SIR in Bihar, conducted just before the elections, has already been labelled a fait accompli. As per Prashant Bhushan, it had several key issues:
- Disproportionate deletion of Muslim voters (25% of deletions despite being 17% of the population);
- Virtually no detection of alleged “foreigners” – only around 25 cases;
- Lack of transparent documentation; and
- Difficulties for poor and migrant workers in filling required enumeration forms.
Adv. Bhushan argues that the ECI appears to be using citizenship as a pretext to delete voters arbitrarily, even though:
- Citizenship is not for the ECI to determine;
- Aadhaar is proof of identity, not citizenship; and
- Most documents required do not establish citizenship either.
‘Vote Chori’: Rahul Gandhi’s allegations revolve around duplicate entries and suspicious photographs used in the Haryana voter lists, which he claims may have been replicated in the Bihar elections. However, since the victory margin was narrow, this alone cannot be considered the sole reason for the NDA’s win. According to Prashant Bhushan, while it is uncertain whether these manipulations determined the final outcome, the irregularities themselves are undeniably serious.
In some cases, the same photograph appeared up to 200 times across the electoral roll. Similar concerns surfaced during the Bihar elections, where voters shared photos showing mismatches between where they voted earlier, such as in Delhi, and where their names appeared now. Despite these issues, the ECI maintains that complainants must “prove that multiple votes were cast,” a verification only the Commission can perform, as it exclusively holds the records of who voted at each polling booth.
Serious Irregularities: The Election Commission of India (ECI) has been widely criticised for appearing hand-in-glove with the BJP. Observers note that it remained a mute spectator when the NDA government rolled out last-minute welfare schemes, such as the ₹10,000 cash transfers to women, just ahead of the elections. Furthermore, the ECI has not acted on multiple instances of electoral malpractice highlighted by Rahul Gandhi during his press conference on “Vote Chori,” raising serious concerns about its impartiality and effectiveness in safeguarding free and fair elections.
The Final Thought
The 2025 Bihar election results, if they hold, will go down as one of the most surprising electoral outcomes in the state’s history. Despite visible anti-BJP sentiment, low rally attendance, and strong Opposition mobilisation, the NDA seems poised for a historic mandate. Whether this victory reflects a last-minute public mood swing, the impact of welfare policies, consolidation under Nitish Kumar, or something deeper in Bihar’s political dynamics, remains a question political analysts will debate for a long time. For now, the 2025 election stands out as a stunning and bewildering turning point in Bihar’s political narrative.
[MohdZiyauallah Khan is a freelance content writer and editor based in Nagpur. He is also an activist and social entrepreneur, co-founder of the group TruthScape, a team of digital activists fighting disinformation on social media.]