MOHAMMAD NAUSHAD KHAN analyses the factors that contributed to BJP rout in Bihar.
The Bihar verdict has simplified many connotations of state polity and national interest, solved some political arithmetic, changed the political dynamics to some extent, and renewed hopes in our democracy. But at the same time it has thrown many questions that remain to be answered, looked into and explored. The seed of mature democracy has been sown in the fertile political lands of Bihar but it remains to be seen how it is nurtured and shaped while opening up for the national discourse.
The road ahead for the Mahagathbandhan and the NDA are full of challenges although the context and the degree may vary from time to time and from one place to another. The Bihar verdict no doubt is the sum total of caste equation, political arithmetic, fine strategy, balanced statements of leaders espousing pluralism, communal and hate polity played by the leaders of NDA camp and of course mature response of the people in general and Muslims in particular. The most important thing that has happened which could be the best defining line of the Bihar verdict was people’s maturity and their ability to transfer their votes accordingly.
John Dayal, a senior journalist, past national president of All India Catholic Union, and Member, National Integration Council, Government of India, while talking to Radiance, said that the scale and sweep of the BJP rout is a rejection by Bihar of the sort of package deal that Mr. Modi, Mr. Amit Shah and Mr. Mohan Bhagwat have been trying to sell – “Development with Hindutva”. The people are sceptical of Mr. Modi’s ability to live to his promise of development. The record of 18 months has shown no development, and instead a sharp increase in prices and consequent hardship for the poor and the middle class. Hindutva, when translated into violence against Muslims and Christians, as also against Dalits, and an assault on privileges for backward castes, alarmed the people of Bihar.
“It is patent now that Hindutva is fast losing its potency in mobilising the Hindu population, even the upper castes that were its main proponents. It remains to be seen if Mr. Modi can bring in real reforms that will create jobs, bring down the prices of essential commodities, especially things such as pulses and other items of food, and ensure that farmers, who are now in real distress across the country, are released of their financial crisis. Issues of Love Jihad, Ghar Wapsi, common civil code, cow slaughter and mythologising science, maths and history, may remain as the poisonous outpouring of motor mouth sadhus, sadhvis and Babas in Parliament and outside. Their electoral returns surely are on a rapid slide,” said Dayal.
Now the biggest take away from the Bihar polls is first the formation of grand alliance whether willingly or unwillingly or to keep them politically relevant is all together a different question. But the bigger point is despite all odds they came together and remained together brilliantly much convincingly than anticipated. The other factors included that despite extreme provocation people did not lose their patience and remained within the cherished periphery of communal amity. All polarisation move and divisive polity seems to have boomeranged and changed the course of action. Even Arun Jaitley said that hate talk changed narrative. Jiten Manjhi has also squarely blamed Mohan Bhagwat and Amit Shah for ‘surprising’ defeat of the NDA.
Most surprisingly, Bihar BJP MP Bhola Singh told NDTV that cancer has spread through party. If needed, Amit Shah must go. Another notable point that this is the second consecutive instance after Delhi polls that Modi failed to make any impact. Believe it or not, Modi’s popularity graph is gradually on declining trend. He failed to deliver the poll promises he had made during Lok Sabha polls. Neither he made sincere attempt to live up by the beautiful slogan he had coned i.e. Sab Ka Saath Sab Ka Vikas nor did he provide any concrete roadmap that could have helped the people to believe that achhey din will arrive sooner or later. The worst is that people are making a mockery saying that let us forget about achhey din instead please return to our old bad days with reference to pulse rates and growing intolerance.
For RJD, of the out of 49 Yadav candidates that the party fielded 42 won elections and 12 out of 16 Muslim candidates won. The number speaks the language. No one should be surprised by the fact when Lalu said that he would go to Modi’s constituencies in Varanasi and try to consolidate anti-Modi forces. He has already said it and it is for the political leaders and the people to understand his statement between the lines.
Many political analysts believe that while pulling out of the grand alliance in Bihar he has lost one golden opportunity to lead the Mahagathbandhan and any alliance with the NDA would be a political blunder. Many would remember that once BSP supremo had said that her party can think of alliance if SP says sorry for the guest house incidents. Questions are being raised whether the Bihar verdict will have any impact on Uttar Pradesh. Will there be any kind of Mahagathbandhan on the pattern of Bihar. But no one is ready to believe that SP and BSP will ever come together.
Now the Big question: if Mamata and Left party can think of alliance, why not SP and BSP?
M J Warsi, originally from Bihar who teaches at Washington University in St. Louis, USA, told Radiance that the remarkable success of the Nitish Kumar-led grand alliance in the recently concluded Bihar elections has rejected the communalisation of politics in Bihar. JDU-RJD-Congress alliance’s win is a clear and loud victory of unity over divisiveness. In the past Bihar elections always gave new dimension to the national politics. The victory in Bihar is clearly a victory of humility over arrogance, love over hate, and clearly rejected the saffronisation of politics in the state by the people of Bihar.
“With this massive win Nitish Kumar now has to work more closely as he would certainly face some of the challenges. To keep his development mission going, he needs to think about revival of various industries, work closely to the districts which suffer from flood and drought, particularly in north Bihar, should focus on quality education at primary, tertiary and higher level. Vacant positions at the higher institutions MUST be filled on priority basis; training to primary teachers is a must for a better foundation, and Minority education must be given full attention with financial support, only then we can think of a prosperous Bihar,” said Warsi.
The immediate challenge before Nitish Kumar is how to put the dots in their right place for uninterrupted smooth functioning of the government in order to reciprocate the gesture shown by the people towards Mahagathbandhan. The governance by any yardstick should match with people’s expectations and aspirations. The smooth alliance and equally good rapport throughout election between forces that defined Mahagathbandhan was highly impressive. The same spirit has to be maintained for effective functioning of the government while putting aside all grievances of the past on the backburner in order to serve the purpose. Otherwise it will be an exercise in futility.