The Congress Up, Thanks to Negative Vote against Ruling Party
The results of recently held five assembly elections are a huge drubbing for P.M. Narendra Modi, his handpicked strategist Mr. Amit Shah and his associates. An IndiaSpend analysis highlighted the huge losses the Saffron party suffered in the “cow belt”. The ruling party had lost 48% of the seats it had won in 2013. The spectacular loss is of reserved seats for SCs/STs which had been always dominated by BJP. Across Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP candidates lost 120 of the 180 total reserved seats.
The BJP loss became Congress gain as other parties, including SP, BSP and Janta Congress Chhattisgarh led by Ajit Jogi were neglected by the voters. This time 162 more seats went in the Congress kitty in comparison to 2013 results. So a gain of Congress is spectacular 137% against its 2013 tally. But by no scale, it may be taken as the result of Congress popularity. But it is the result of people’s disenchantment with the Modi-Shah-RSS combine. RSS has a big network in M.P. but it failed to help BJP though it had invoked Ajodhya.
Most interestingly the big change came due to the rejection of the party by SC/ST and OBC voters. In the last assembly and Lok-Sabha elections, they enthusiastically voted with upper caste Hindus. In the Mandir movement also they were the front-runner. But after BJP came to power, not only non-Hindu minorities (especially Muslims and Christians) were badly treated but erstwhile ‘achuts’ and lower caste Hindus were also thrashed for riding the horse, raising moustaches or entering in ‘Garbha pandal’.
In all, the BJP lost 180 seats it had won in 2013. The Congress gained 162 seats across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of electoral data. In 2013, the BJP had won 377 seats and the Congress 118 in these three states. The data shows the five states where assembly elections were held for total 678 seats, account for 15.2% of India’s population – the Congress won 305 seats and the BJP only 199. The difference in seat sharing is quite high – 106.
While the Congress lost Mizoram to a regional outfit “Mizo National Front” (MNF), in Telangana another regional party “Telangana Rashtra Samithi” (TRS) retained power with big margins. The credit goes to the social agenda implemented by C.M. KCR in the last term. Various analyses showed that the minority community stood firmly with good work of KCR and rejected the Congress, BJP and other parties for their deceptions of the past, negligence to secular parameters and double standards in social uplift priorities as shown by Justice Sachar Report.
In other three states, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, which virtually comprise ‘Hindutva laboratory’ and is the playing-field for RSS, voters preferred Congress as a better option and rejected other parties which may join hands with the BJP. The Congress got 68 of total 90 seats (39 in 2013) in Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan it was up from 21 in 2013 to 99 of 199 seats in 2018. In Madhya Pradesh Congress went up from 58 seats in 2013 to 114 in the house of 230 while the ruling BJP went down to 109 from 165 won 2013.
It is also observed that rural population rejected BJP more severely than the urban population. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, more than 70% of the population lives in rural areas. They mainly depend on farming. The distress in agriculture segment of the economy after unmindful demonetisation which covered more than 85% currency notes in circulation, farmers were badly affected. They could not purchase inputs like seeds and fertilizers in time. Farm labourers could not be paid their wages and a large number of small and medium factory workers lost their jobs.
This distress could not be covered up by Modi and Shah Strategy to demean 70 years rule of independent India. They repeatedly insulted stalwarts of freedom struggle, including Jawaharlal Nehru. As the last resort, the rhetoric of Mandir-Masjid was also clicked but the trick did not work. The Hindutva proponent Adityanath was also pressed in the action. He addressed over 100 rallies in the five states. Though he spread venom against minorities yet he failed to revoke “Hindutva” plank to get the sinking ship of BJP out of the turmoil. Distress, distrust and false propaganda boomeranged and “Jumla” strategy failed to lure the voters. As a result, in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP recorded its worst performances of the decade, and the Congress its best. Chhattisgarh has 43% of its seats reserved for SC/ST seats, Madhya Pradesh 36% and Rajasthan 30%. In the last elections, BJP had won most of the seats hands down, but this time the voters did not show any mercy and preferred the hand of the Congress.
IMPACT ON LS ELECTIONS
Lok Sabha elections are about four months ahead. The important question is how this changed mood of the voters will affect the results. In 2014, Modi magic worked and the party won 62 LS seats in these three states – MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. The constituency-wise poll data, as analysed by The Indian Express, predict that if the same trend repeats in LS polls, BJP will lose as many as 31 Lok Sabha seats in these states. This is just 50% of the seats the party captured in 2014. As mentioned above, in these three “cow-states” – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh – the BJP has lost as many as 180 assembly seats – almost 48 per cent of what it held in 2013. But it does not mean that the party is out of the contest. It is very much there as the difference in vote share between BJP and Congress is marginal. In Madhya Pradesh, Congress secured 40.9% of the votes polled and won 114 seats against 41% vote share of BJP which bagged just 109 seats. In Rajasthan, the Congress got 39.3% votes share and won 99 seats, while BJP got 38.8%, and won 73 seats. So the competition will be tough in LS elections. To make up, Congress will have to work hard to improve votes share and convert negative vote into positive support.
At present, it is estimated that Congress may win 10 of the 11 LS seats in Chhattisgarh. In MP BJP won 27 out of 29 seats in 2013. It may come down to 17 in 2019. In Rajasthan, BJP may be reduced to 13 LS seats in 2019, as against its sweep of all the 25 seats in the state in 2014.
It is also being estimated that if non-BJP parties in UP joined hands in 2019, BJP may lose another 50 seats in UP. In Karnataka, if JDS and Congress joined hands, the BJP might end up winning only six of 28. In 2014 the state had sent as many as 17 BJP men to LS. In all the RSS-backed Hindutva party – BJP – may end up losing as many as 92 LS seats in the 2019 elections. In 2014, BJP won 282 seats out of total 543. If it loses 92 seats in 2019, the strength will come down to 190 which is less than 272 for a clear majority.
However, two elections are never the same. The pattern of the voting changes each time due to various factors as we have seen in UP by-elections of Gorakhpur, Phulpur, and Kairana. Though Rahul Gandhi has shown remarkable maturity and decency, he lacks the quality of quick decision making as shown in choosing Chief Ministers in newly won states. He still has to learn the art to connect the people to match NaMo. However, the results of these elections certainly infused some sense of confidence in the cadre which can help activate the party’s local units. For BJP it is certainly a deep wound. Since 2014, the party had grabbed power in 14 out of 22 states in assembly elections. This time it had lost three prime states and could get none of the five.
CONGRESS WILL HAVE TO CHANGE
For LS elections, Congress will have to change its narrative of enumerating BJP failure to fulfil tall claims it had made in 2014. In 2019 the Congress shall have to present its own report card in newly won states. Most importantly, it shall have to restore rule of law with a strong hand. The BJP did not follow the rule book but worked to satisfy “Hindutva” sentiments. For this purpose, the innocent were thrashed and lynched in the name of cow and beef, and the so-called “cow-vigilantes” were provided with immunity for all sorts of crimes. They were given protection for their illegal acts. It will be difficult to deal with them because the party has now openly adorned “soft-Hindutva”. The coming time will tell if the grand old party returns to the ethos of secular democracy, restore human rights in accordance with the letter and spirit of the Constitution or follows the footprints of BJP. The State Governments will have to re-look cases of mob-lynching and false cases of animal smuggling, etc. The measures to provide relief for the farmers must also include a solution of the menace of stray-animals and open the avenue of fruitful use of useless animals to help farmers increase their income and develop in the side source of income of animal husbandry.
Export and import policy of agricultural produce should also be revisited to stabilise prices of commodities in the local markets with reasonable gains to the farmers. Many farmers have a huge burden of bank loans. All loans should be interest-free with the incentive of subsidy for repayment in time. Rules of crop insurance should be changed to help the farmers for crop loss. To improve employment opportunities, cottage and small industries and marginal businesses should also be given incentives and relaxation in bank loans. Interest-free money lending should also be considered.