Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his party, JD(U), always cherished the position of Bade Bhai and vehemently claimed it even while the party chief is said to be at the lowest point of his political career. Many think that it is the beginning of the end of Nitish Kumar’s 20-year era, as BJP and JD(U) are set to contest an equal 101 seats each. Nitish Kumar and his party always tried to ensure the symbolic lead in fighting for the number of seats, even by one. No more now.
In a move that underscores the evolving balance of power within NDA, the coalition hasfinalised its seat-sharing formula for the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. This parity marks a stark departure from the 2020 polls, where JD(U) held a symbolic edge with 115 seats against BJP’s 110, highlighting a perceived decline in Nitish’s once-dominant influence and BJP’s firm grip on the alliance’s steering wheel.
The agreement, announced by Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan after marathon deliberations in Delhi, allocates the remaining 41 seats among smaller NDA partners: 29 to Chirag Paswan’sLJP(RV), and six each to Upendra Kushwaha’s newly formed RLM and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM(S). With Bihar’s 243 assembly constituencies up for grabs in a two-phase poll on Nov. 6 and 11, the formula aims to consolidate the NDA’s caste arithmetic ahead of a high-stakes battle against the opposition Mahagathbandhan.
The 2025 arrangement is more than arithmetic; it’s a narrative of recalibration. In the 2020 Bihar elections, JD(U) commanded the lion’s share of NDA tickets, contesting 115 seats as the alliance’s anchor. The BJP, then a junior partner in seat terms, settled for 110, with allies like HAM(S) getting seven. That poll saw the NDA scrape through with 125 seats – BJP netting 74 and JD(U) 43 – vindicating Kumar’s clout but exposing cracks in his party’s strike rate, which plummeted from over 60% in 2015 to around 37% in 2020.
The NDA’s narrow victory relied heavily on the BJP’s robust performance, which offset JD(U)’s underwhelming showing despite its larger seat allocation. The NDA managed to pass the halfway mark of 122, with a 243-seat Assembly, by just three more votes. The Mahagathbandhan got 115 seats while RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats, underscoring the Opposition’s resilience but inability to dislodge the incumbent alliance. AIMIM and other fringe players picked up the remaining seats, adding to the fragmented mandate.
Fast-forward to 2025, and the scales have tipped. By slicing JD(U)’s allocation to 101 – 14 fewer than in 2020 –BJP has effectively neutralised Kumar’s numerical primacy, positioning itself as an equal, if not senior, partner. Political analysts attribute this to the strategy of BJP to send a message to its workers and supporters that there will be a BJP-led government if the NDA comes back to power. It also underlines JD(U)’s waning electoral machinery, compounded by Kumar’s fifth term as chief minister, drawing criticism for governance lapses and his high-profile flip-flops, including his dramatic return to the NDA in Jan. 2024 after ditching the INDIA bloc.
The equal split also reflects the BJP’s strategic hedging. With Kumar’s health concerns and age (74) fuelling speculation about his post-poll viability, the party is believed to have extracted concessions to bolster its leverage in any future government formation. RJD spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari seized on the development, claiming it exposes the BJP’s intent to “eliminate JD(U) post-elections,” a sentiment echoed in opposition circles as evidence of NDA’s internal fragility.
While the big two dominate the headlines, smaller allies are simmering with discontent, threatening to inject volatility into the NDA’s unity. Central cabinet minister and the patron of HAM(S) Jitan Ram Manjhi, considered a key figure for the Mahadalit vote bank, was vocal in his frustration over the meagre six-seat allotment – down from seven in 2020 but far short of the 10-15 he reportedly demanded. “We’ve been undervalued,”Manjhi told reporters, warning of “repercussions” that could ripple through the NDA’s Dalit outreach. Though he later softened his stance, reaffirming loyalty to Prime Minister Narendra Modi – “I will stand with him until my last breath” – his initial outburst underscores the bargaining woes of fringe players in a BJP-centric setup.
RLM, representing the Koeri-Kushwaha community, fared no better with its six seats, mirroring HAM(S)’s share but igniting whispers of betrayal. Just days before the announcement, Kushwaha posted cryptically on X about “deceit and betrayal” in alliances, fuelling speculation of a rift amid stalled talks. Following the seat-sharing announcement, however, he moved swiftly to console his disheartened cadre in a poignant X post: “Dear friends/colleagues, I apologise to all of you. The number of seats has not turned out as per your wishes. I understand that this decision will sadden thousands – lakhs – of people, including those in my party who aspired to be candidates. Today, many homes may not have cooked meals.”
Though he trailed off publicly, the message underscored the emotional toll on his base while signalling resolve to rally forward. In 2020, Kushwaha led his RLSP and contested 104 seats, though winning none. He was then the CM candidate of an alliance forged with Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Mayawati’s BSP.
Chirag Paswan, by contrast, emerged as the deal’s outlier beneficiary, with LJP(RV)’s 29 seats. He fought the 2020 Assembly election outside the NDA fold, even without formally announcing his exit from it. His party fielded 135 candidates then but only one could win – that too deserted him. But the real significance of his candidates proved in ensuring the defeat of at least three dozen JD(U)candidates.
For NDA, the pact is said to be a double-edged sword: it projects cohesion but masks fault lines that could cost votes among marginalised groups. With Bihar’s electorate weary of musical chairs in Patna’s power corridors, the real test will be whether BJP’s ascendancy translates to a decisive mandateor if Nitish Kumar’s diminished stature hands ammunition to rivals painting the alliance as a BJP monolith.