In the light of resignation of Santosh Kumar Suman, a Dalit minister in Bihar, and the prevailing political developments across India, Soroor Ahmed analyses the poll prospects of BJP in 2024 LS polls.
The resignation of Santosh Kumar Suman, a Dalit Minister belonging to Hindustani Awam Morcha of JitanRam Manjhi from the Nitish Kumar cabinet on June 13 –just 10 days before the all-party meet ofopposition leaders in Patna – can be seen as a move by the BJP to woo back smallerregional outfits like JD(S) in Karnataka, Rashtriya Lok Janata Party, HAM, VikassheelInsan Party in Bihar and even TDP in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This is being doneto offset the loss caused by the desertion of trusted and more influential alliance partners such asJD (U), Shiv Sena, PDP, Shiromani Akali Dal, etc. in the last fewyears.
The eye is also on the Dalit votes. But if four-time former chief minister of UP, Mayawati,can no longer claim to be the main vote-catcher of SC votes and Ram Vilas Paswan, once acommander of Dalit Sena, had lost his touch much before his death on October 8, 2020, how can ex-Bihar CMManjhi, who has no track record of championing the cause of this section of the society, canbrag of being an asset for any political alliance.
The timing of Suman’s decision is more intriguing as it came just ahead of all-party meet and twomonths after his father, Manjhi, who is the leader of HAM, met Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
But the big question is as to why, after the rout in Karnataka, the saffron party is so busy openingnegotiations with parties which have lost their relevance or have grown weak. After all, HAM, VIP andRLJP have hardly any base in Bihar and JD(S) has lost much of its support in Karnataka as was evidentfrom the result in the recent poll. TDP too has lost much of its sheen and even if it joins hands withthe BJP, there is little chance of its revival in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Will this strategy ofallying with these parties work in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll?
GROUND REALITY
For example, if the result of 2015 Assembly election in Bihar is any indicator, the resignation of Dalit minister is not going to have any negative impact on the poll prospect of GrandAlliance in the state. BJP contested in alliance with Manjhi’s HAM, Paswan’s LJP and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party. The NDA could win only58 seats while the Grand Alliance 178. RJD bagged 80 seats, JD(U) 71 and Congress 27.Manjhi’s HAM could win only one seat while LJP and RLSP two each.
This was the result when PM NarendraModi addressed about three dozen public meetings on the run-up to the poll and both Paswan andKushwaha were the Union ministers. The NDA vote share fell by five per cent when compared to the May2014 Lok Sabha poll.The BJP won 53 seats when it had contested 158 in the House of 243.
Ahead of 2024 Parliamentary and 2025 Assembly elections, they are in the process of coming together onceagain. The only difference is that Kushwaha has come up with a new party now named Rashtriya LokJanata Party and Paswan is now no more alive. His LJP is now a divided house with brother PashupatiKumar Paras, a Union Minister, leading one faction, while the other one is led by his son ChiragPaswan, himself the lone MP of his faction.
DALIT FACTOR
After the homecoming of Manjhi, the NDA will have three Dalit outfits: HAM and two LJPs. But unlike in2015, it will not have any SC leader of the stature of RV Paswan. But the NDAperformed disastrously in 2015 notwithstanding the fact that the senior Paswan was alive and PM Narendra Modi was in great touch in the initial years of his rule.
The truth is that today, like in pre-1977 years, the Dalits are largely voting for parties not led bytheir own community leader. If the Congress used to woo their votes in the first three decades afterIndependence, in the recent past either the BJP or other regional outfits and evenLeft parties, like CPI ML in Bihar, have some hold on them.
In the case of Bihar, when Lalu Prasad and his wife Rabri Devi were in power (1990-2005), they used towin a big chunk of Dalit votes even when RV Paswan was not on their side. Post-2005, the presentchief minister Nitish Kumar managed to make inroads into the SC and Extremely BackwardCastes votes. It was he who picked up Manjhi and made him the CM after he quit from his post followingthe poor performance of his party, JD (U) in 2014 Lok Sabha poll.
To offset the loss of Nitish, the saffron party is wooing Vikassheel Insan Party of Mukesh Sahni aswell. Like Manjhi, he, too, is in the habit of over-estimating himself. Both the parties won four seats asthe NDA partners in 2020 Assembly poll.
Though some political pundits are of the view that the voting pattern in Lok Sabha and Assemblyelections are not always similar and Manjhi’s latest move may help the BJP in the 2024 parliamentarypoll yet the fact is that whenever Lalu and Nitish come together, they form a very lethal combination.So far attracting 16 per cent Dalit votes is concerned, both of them in alliance with CPI ML, which has12 MLAs, are in a much better position than the NDA.
Though the BJP has recently succeeded in attracting Dalit votes across India yet the fact is that manyeducated and socially aware people among them are worried because of the rise of Hindutva. They are ofthe view that the revival of religiosity is opening the old wound of untouchability. Manjhi himselfhad expressed this view several times. He had repeatedly claimed that Ram is an imaginary figure andthat he does not believe in the Ramayana. He had also said that the upper castes have come as invaders fromoutside and are ruling India. This view is in total contrast to that of the Sangh Parivar.
But for the sake of power he, like Paswan, had made serious compromise.
SCENARIO IN SOUTH INDIA
In South India the rout in Karnataka has alarmed the BJP top brass. It wants to retain 25 (out of 28)LS seats it won in 2019. For this the party needs the support of JD (S). But theproblem with the saffron party is that the JD(S) is a divided house and after the recent defeat thefamily feud has intensified. Thus, the whole move is likely to backfire.
While Telangana is going for Assembly election later this year, Andhra Pradesh poll is scheduled withthe next year’s parliamentary poll. But the victory of Congress in Karnataka has dampened the spiritwithin the BJP camp in these two states. Therefore, it is extending the hand of friendship towards TDP.In both these states, the ruling BRS and YSR Congress are still strong. Besides,in Telangana, the BJP is witnessing infighting.In such a situation, the BJP cannot expect to do well inthe 2024 Lok Sabha poll in South India.