The recent telecast report on different television channels showed that if Parliamentary elections are held at this point of time, a majority of voters would like NDA forming next Central Government. If NDA nominates Narendra Modi as next Prime Ministerial candidate, there might be a possibility that Muslim voters polarise towards UPA. But there are also threats that the voters who aspire more to see development work rather than secularism would like to prefer voting NDA because the triumph by Narendra Modi in consecutive two Gujarat assembly elections has proved that people like his development initiatives. It means voters for UPA compared to NDA will shrink because secularism compared to development is obviously not a main agenda for majority of voters.
Though Muslim voters would prefer secularism to development initiatives, there are chances that smaller parties may draw their attention towards UPA’s negligence of Muslims and projecting any third front under the leadership of Mulayam Singh Yadav or Nitish Kumar before the elections. If they succeed in dividing Muslim voters, Congress may lose next Parliamentary elections because of loose in size of the majority community’s voters; and any further division of Muslim voters may create shortage of votes for Congress to win next Parliamentary elections. Thus to preserve Muslim voters for the next Parliamentary elections UPA needs to revisit the strategy set for Indian Muslims.
Before the next Parliamentary elections, in terms of Union Budget 2013-14, the UPA II has a fair chance to reconstruct its lost images among common Indians and also to preserve Muslim vote bank. Would any budget prepared in a traditional way and schemes framed by Secretaries of different ministries supposed to be implemented through Government agencies serve the purpose? Probably no; because so far it has not allowed Indian Muslims solve their problems related to livelihood.
The Sachar Committee, in its report on the plight of Indian Muslims, cited a public perception that “The Government never assesses the functioning of these schemes with respect to benefits that have flowed to Muslims and other Minorities”. Though 2007 onwards several published reports tried to highlight the achievements made under the Ministry of Minority Affairs, public perception still exists that ‘as a result of increased budgetary allocation in the Ministry of Minority Affairs, no desired changes occurred in living conditions of Indian Muslims during 11th five-year plan’. Thus there is a genuine need to evaluate the impact of enhanced budgetary allocation for Muslims’ life indices and their income level.
Though to allow implementation on recommendations made by the Sachar committee, the allocated union budget under Ministry of Minority Affairs has been increased from Rs. 500 crores in 2007-08 to Rs. 3,135 crores for 2012-13; there has been no improvement in the living conditions of Muslims. Only the scholarship schemes for students can be justified for educational betterment of Muslims, otherwise no other scheme was applauded by the community. Other schemes like women leadership scheme and Multi-Sectoral Development Programme only raised controversies due to conflict in culture and areas of interest among different religions and regions.
If the UPA wants to preserve Muslim votes for the next Parliamentary elections, there is need to interact with Muslim community organisations for better understanding of their problems and frame suitable schemes for development of the community. Otherwise also there is a big challenge for the UPA to prove its ability to successfully lead the development compared to Narendra Modi. So Mr. Chidambaram and his party have to think out of box and not in a traditional secular fashion about development of Muslims. Despite the economic plight of Muslims, so far the UPA has failed to prepare any single scheme to allow the Muslim workers improve their livelihood. Though there are reports suggesting that the minority’s share in priority sector advances has increased, but it is yet not proved that Muslims have increased access to formal finance. The published report does not convince the voters unless real benefits are made to reach them.
There is need to pay due attention to the 86% Muslim workers who work as own account workers or family workers in household enterprises, or casually work in other than public sectors. They really suffer from financial exclusion because they avoid bank credits for factor of interest and not fit for equity finance. Though they account for 29% of total Muslim population, they deserve due attention of the Government to eradicate poverty level by supporting their livelihoods, unfortunately so far they could not draw attention of the team framing welfare schemes for minorities. Since they work as street vendors, hawkers and enterprises without fixed dwellings, they fail to get noticed by the highly educated work force drawing welfare schemes.
Muslims’ 78:22 male-female worker ratio compared to national ratio of 68:32 suggests that Muslim females depend upon earning of male workers. Considerably, 67% Muslim workers reside in urban areas where poverty among Muslims is more compared to rural areas and amenities are much lesser.
If the UPA has to insulate its Muslim votes for ensuing elections by proving its ability to boost development among Muslims, this time the Ministry of Minority Affairs should prepare any scheme for such Muslim workers engaged in household sector in urban areas. Any scheme of providing micro-equity finance for such micro enterprises would help a lot to reduce poverty among Muslims. Considering direct and better reach among the community workers, the local NGOs compared to Government agencies; such schemes should be proposed to be implemented through local NGOs instead of Government agencies. This may ensure successful implementation instead of refund of unutilised amounts after one year. It would also help build genuine supporters to help UPA execute the planned schemes for the community.
Since the plight of Muslims cannot be resolved through budgetary provisions alone in the Ministry of Minority Affairs, it is needed to take appropriate steps for ensuring financial inclusion of Indian Muslims and allow them develop their livelihoods. Hopefully, in the Union Budget besides several measures to allow the economy rejoin higher growth trajectory, the UPA would definitely announce something concrete with regard to financial inclusion and inclusive growth of Indian Muslims. The Congress think-tank would have dealt with enough thought process to ensure that Muslim voters must not move against the UPA because there is real threat that Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi may draw attention of Muslim voters in the next elections highlighting their triumphs in respective assembly elections in U.P., Bihar and Gujarat states.
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