Is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s confidence shaking? Ground reports after the penultimate phase of the 2024 general elections suggest that the political winds may be turning against the BJP. Increasingly hostile rhetoric against the Muslim community by Modi and other BJP leaders, including Amit Shah, along with a spate of staged interviews, suggest they are aware of their precarious position. In contrast, opposition INDIA bloc leaders are brimming with confidence and sensing victory.
Political analysts believe the active campaigning by civil society organizations and the general public to unseat the ruling party has transformed the election into a battle of Modi versus the people. This has visibly unsettled the Prime Minister, who has resorted to making absurd claims about the opposition. In just eleven days, Modi gave 24 interviews, during which he claimed to be a divine incarnation, stating, “God has sent me.” He suggested that the energy he feels inside him could not come from a biological body and must have been bestowed upon him “by God.” In his speeches, he has accused the INDIA bloc of pandering to Muslims, using inflammatory language that has drawn widespread criticism.
The INDIA bloc’s campaign focuses on “upholding the Samvidhan (Constitution)” and addressing the daily struggles of ordinary people. The BJP’s strategy to use the Ram Mandir, built atop the historic Babri Masjid, to overshadow pressing issues seems to have backfired. Voters are more concerned with soaring food prices and unemployment than with emotive issues. The Congress party has touched a raw nerve by promising to remove the reservation quota bar, implement a caste census, and redistribute wealth, rallying the backward classes. The BJP, unable to label Congress as a “casteist party,” has instead dragged the Muslim reservation issue into its campaign. At a rally in Bihar, Modi accused the INDIA bloc of planning to rob SCs, STs, and OBCs of their rights and divert them to Muslims, using the derogatory term ‘mujra’ to describe their actions.
Opposition leaders were quick to denounce Modi’s remarks. Priyanka Gandhi criticized the Prime Minister for using abusive language, saying it degraded the dignity of his office. Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera suggested the BJP should get Modi treated immediately. Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi and RJD leader Manoj Jha also expressed concern over Modi’s state of mind, with Jha noting that Modi’s language was unbecoming of a Prime Minister.
It is an established fact that Muslim communities were granted reservation rights under Article 340 of the Indian Constitution in several southern states due to their social and educational disadvantages, not their religion. Analysts suggest that Congress’s promise of a caste census has unnerved the BJP, prompting it to mislead backward sections of society by raising the Muslim reservation issue.
The BJP’s campaign has largely been negative, focusing on accusing opposition leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav of being anti-Ram and making baseless claims about their supporters. However, Modi’s roadshows and rallies are reportedly drawing lackluster crowds, while INDIA bloc rallies are setting attendance records. Social media videos show disillusioned voters, with some claiming they were misled about rally locations and others openly criticizing Modi.
As phase 6 of the elections ended on May 25, voter turnout was 59.6%. With elections held for 486 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, the final round of voting for the remaining 57 seats will occur on June 1. The Election Commission reported varying turnout percentages for the phases, with the highest being 69.16% in the fourth phase. Results will be announced on June 4.
Opposition leaders and commentators predict the BJP will fall short of Modi’s goal for a third term, with the INDIA bloc poised to make significant gains. This election could mark a pivotal shift in Indian politics, with voters prioritizing economic issues over the BJP’s traditional narratives.