As the time for Assembly elections in Karnataka is coming nigh, Soroor Ahmed studies the turmoil in the Karnataka unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party and its impact on the Assembly elections in different States.
The origin of the turmoil in the Karnataka unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party can betraced in 2019 developments when the saffron party engineered a unique type of split tobring down Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress government led by H.D. Kumaraswamy. The party thenpreferred to form government on the basis of the support from turncoats and in the processleft many loyal and trusted partymen in the lurch. Now that the chickens have come to roost,the party top brass is groping in the dark over the future course of action.
The chaos on the run-up to the Assembly election does not necessarily suggest that the BJPis down in the dump, but the upheaval does not augur well for it. If the BJP loses theelection in this southern state, it would be quite an uphill task for it to revive beforethe Assembly elections to be held in Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradeshlater this year and Lok Sabha poll in summer of 2024.
The Karnataka scenario exploded many myths astutely woven about the BJP and its so-calledmasterstrokes, such as bringing down opposition government by totally unethical means. Itdoes not appear to be a cadre-based disciplined party with a difference. Ever since itcame to power for the first time in 2008 several serious corruption charges have beenlevelled against its top brass. Its first chief minister B.S. Yediyurappa had to quit in2011 after being indicted by the Lokayukt Justice (Retd) Santosh Hegde. The mine mafia hasa very strong grip on the party. In the same way the Narendra Modi magicmay not work asit happened in 2013 election when the party could win only 40 seats as Yediyurappa hadparted ways then and had formed Karnataka Janata Paksha.
The BJP could do well in 2014 Lok Sabha and 2018 Assembly polls only when Yediyurappareturned to the party fold in January 2014.
ABSURD STRATEGY
Thanks to the strategy adopted by the central leadership, the party is passing through itsworst phase. If this phenomenon continues, the BJP is going to face another such situationin Madhya Pradesh where too a split was engineered and the Congress government led byKamal Nath was brought down.
Who can forget that on March 23, 2020 night Shivraj Singh Chauhan was hurriedly re-installed as the chief minister of the state. This was over 10 days after Congress leaderJyotiradityaScindia was ushered into the BJP. Within 24 hours of Chauhan’s oath-taking,Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the first lockdown. Whether this sudden step wastaken to fight Corona Virus or to nip in the bud any effort of the Congress to take to thestreets would remain unanswered.
The totally childish decision to make India Congress-mukt by any means, fair or foul, istaking a huge toll. Both in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, this exercise backfired. Thoughelection is due in Maharashtra after the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, there too the defection ofMLAs from the Opposition rank is going to cause a lot of problems in days to come.
HOW KARNATAKA DIFFERS
Karnataka is different in one way from those BJP-ruled states of North India as theHindutva card, though blatantly played, is not working much. This can be confirmed fromthe statement made by four times chief minister Yediyurappa that there is no scope forhijab and halal becoming poll issues and that Muslims and Hindus should live together likebrothers and sisters. It remains a mystery as to why the BJP’s list of 40 star campaignersdid not include the name of young MP from South Bangalore, Tejashwi Suriya, known for hisanti-Muslim diatribes. He is no ordinary figure, but the national president of the BJPYuva Morcha (Youth Wing). The omission of his name has exposed the fissure within thesaffron parivar. This may return to haunt it in the next Lok Sabha poll.
In Madhya Pradesh,JyotiradityaScindia deserted the Congress and brought some MLAs to theBJP side to help Chauhan form the government. But in the long run this move has weakenedthe BJP considerably in the state, especially in Scindia’s home-belt of Gwalior. The partyis finding it difficult to trust anyone at the lower rung. Besides, with Scindia on hisside how will Modi attack the dynasty politics of Congress in his election campaign inMadhya Pradesh?
INCUMBENCY FACTOR
Modi’s style of campaign did notyield result in West Bengal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh Delhi, Jharkhand etc.
What the BJP top brass is not realising is that the incumbency factor is heavily loadedagainst the ruling party both at the Centre and in many states in which it has been in power forthe last several years. Apart from religious rhetoric, it has nothing much to offer now.The BJP’s election campaign is lacking newness and the speeches are repetitive. That iswhy in the states where Muslims are not a big factor the party is gradually finding itdifficult to win. In West Bengal the party even failed to exploit this fact.
The open defiance and revolt by senior leaders in Karnataka unit of the party has opened aPandora’s Box. What is of grave concern for it is that many of those who are jumping offthe BJP bandwagon are from the dominant Lingayat caste on which the party has been relyingso heavily. Even the chief minister Basavaraj Bommai and Yediyurappa belonged to thiscaste.