Saffron flag flutters high in Karnataka, the first South Indian state to go the BJP way. Though not a totally convincing victory, the BJP has succeeded in making foray into power in the southern Dravidian territory for the first time. In today’s ideologically amorphous situation, the performance – 110 in the 224-member Assembly – is commendable for the Bhartiya Janata Party.
The party has taken a sweet revenge for being betrayed by the wily Devegowda and sons last November. Even the best of pollsters had exercised restraint in conceding a majority of seats for the BJP on the election eve. At best they could predict the largest number of seats for the party in a fractured mandate. They have all been proved wrong. Undoubtedly, this is a historic moment for the BJP as never before the Party was in striking distance of power in the southern state.
For most part of the electioneering, the BJP was a frontrunner. Only towards the middle round, the prospects looked shaky. The party had begun the work soon after the 7-day Yeddyurappa Government quit the seat of power after JDS went back on its promise. Though the BJP’s much touted sympathy factor did not seem to work wonders, the party cadre’s hard work did wonders. BJP was way ahead of the principal rival Congress in making a choice of candidates, had fewer rebels opposing its official nominees, and banked mainly on the popular contact. It was brimming with energy. While each of the veteran Congress leaders was counting its chicken before being hatched and worrying over personal chief ministerial prospects, BJP had made a clear choice of its leader, Yeddyurappa. Others were in the field, someone digging borewells, other fixing tubewells and yet others distributing seeds. The party even packed off hundreds of Muslims to Ajmer to have a ziarat of Khaja Moinuddin Chishty’s dargah. The bait worked well as the party could induct Muslim workers into the campaigning even though no ticket was offered to the community. Projection of a leader sent the message clear and loud to the cadre as well as to the electorate. The Congress had as many as nine leaders pining for the prime chair. In the end, the party paid a price for it.
Internally though, Dalit veteran Mallikarjuna Kharge was to be anointed the CM if the Party was to be voted to power, but given the community’s poor profile the fact was not to be highlighted, lest votes of powerful communities like Lingayaths or Vokkaligas go away. The Congress has been unable to grapple with the conundrum. So are its rivals. The larger question therefore to be asked is: Will Karnataka leadership remain slave to the dominant social groups?
Beaten in the game of numbers, the Congress may claim that it won 15 more seats than last time (i.e., 65 in 2004) and even increased its vote share from 34 to 35 per cent. And to boot, it has been beaten by the BJP by a handsome length. Even the party’s boastful claim of forging a social spectrum of OBCs, Muslims and the Dalits does not match with reality. The mandate makes its amply clear that its subaltern classes could not consolidate behind the party. In southern Karnataka, the Muslim votes were split between the Congress and the JDS. The reserved seats were almost equally divided between Congress (33) and BJP (34).
A much grim reality for the Congress is that it could not regain its erstwhile citadel for the second time in a row. It serves as a certain portent of the party’s failure to capture the popular imagination. The Party is refusing to rise. Leadership is lacklustre, cadre are listless. Jaded politicians rule the roost in the party’s decision-making bodies. New blood is conspicuous by absence. Its vision is stunted.
Manifesto does not inspire hope. But more poignant reminder from the verdict is the fact of absence of introspection within the Congress. No one in the Congress dares to blame the High Command for mismanaging the campaign. Culture of para-dropping the leaders from above – former CM Krishna was brought in from Mumbai’s Raj Bhavan to lead the campaign – continues to be the recipe for success. Old guard refuses to go away, blocking the aspirations of the new generation. It was under Krishna’s chief ministership that Karnataka became chummy with the MNCs. Bangalore became prime focus of development.
Rural areas began to be ignored. Good work by Ramakrishna Hegde was forgotten. Farmers began to reach for the pesticides for end of their woes. The Congress could not encash upon its loan waiver scheme as information did not reach the grassroots level. As for the Janata Dal Secular, the major beneficiary of the coalition Government during the last 40 months, verdict must be a stunner. The party had expected the ‘king-maker’s’ role. But BJP’s near majority strength has put paid to baap-beta party. The party’s strength has been cut to the half. Scenario down the road for the party is uncertain. It will be vulnerable to poaching, now that the party MLAs are bereft of hope of sharing the loaves and fishes of power.
As for greenhorn like the BSP, the party has failed to make any viable dent into the vote in Karnataka. Micro reading of the vote share would only reveal as to how it made a dent into Dalit votes of other parties.
A major casualty of the verdict is Bangarappa family. Father and two sons, Kumar and Madhu (in different parties), have been swept away under the saffron wave. Yeddyurappa has won handsomely in Shikaripur against Bangarappa. Filmstar and Congress MP, Ambareesh has been humbled in Mandya and former CM Dharamsing has lost for the first time in Jewargi in Gulbarga district (having won eight times in a row earlier).
Looked at from the standpoint of social harmony, BJP’s inroads into power in Karnataka does not portend well. The party did not field a single candidate from among the minority communities. Its Bangalore North MP, H. T. Sangliana, a Christian, had voiced his resentment openly. BJP had on earlier occasions, spelled its designs to create a southern Ayodhya in Chikamagalur.
But to be fair, the party did not raise controversial issues during the polls. Karnataka is most cosmopolitan in nature among the southern state. The party will need to relook at its core agenda and align it with southern ethos of development for all, liberal education policy, overall catholicity in matters of public policies.
Modi factor did not work as well as it was expected in coastal belt where his meetings were a poor draw. Sunilkumar, state president of Bajrang Dal from Karkala and Nagaraj Shetti, another firebrand leader of the BJP from Bantwala, were defeated. BJP’s victory is also a pointer for the Muslim minority in Karnataka. Simple poll-eve appeals to vote the secular, winnable candidates do not work. The Karnataka Muslim Muttehada Mahaz has used the strategy for too long and needs a thorough relook. People in their anti-incumbency mood look for stable alternatives rather than secular ones.
The BJP was a prime claimant for the slot as it was the only party which did not rule during the last four years in the State. Why should not the majority experiment with it? Why should they bother about only sensitivities of the minorities? On another level, the strategy of voting secular parties has benefited – though partly – parties like the JDS which are under the firm grip of opportunist politicians like Devegowda.
Similarly, the vote for the BJP need not essentially be construed as a vote for the Hindutva. Projection of a Lingayath leader by the BJP did wonders in winning over a powerful community which has its hands on too many levers of powers such as bureaucracy, academia, industry, trade, media et al. The BJP could not have mustered that many seats, had it projected a Dalit leader. Obviously, the dominant communities get into action only when they find that the promise of their own man or woman is at the helms. Poll eve fiats would therefore not suffice. Muslim community would need empowerment through modern education and a better representation in the bureaucracy and all sectors of power. Mere sentiments would not work. It needs to emerge as a powerful community, rather than merely looking for solidarity on the basis of faith.