Election for Legislative Assemblies of five states was recently held. BJP emerged victorious as it gained majority in Uttarakhand and overwhelming majority in Uttar Pradesh, and emerged as second largest party in Goa and Manipur and with the support of regional parties formed the government in the last two states. Congress party’s performance was not bad; it is, from one aspect, satisfactory as it won the majority in Punjab and formed the government there and emerged as the largest party in Goa and Manipur though failed to form the government.
Congress and Samajwadi Party’s alliance faced a great setback in Uttar Pradesh where election was very crucial and significant in determining the future political trend in the country. Bahujan Samaj Party’s supreme Mayawati faced debacle as she won only 19 seats out of 403. Prior to the election, it was expected that both the parties will get a considerable number of seats as both have strong base and support of certain groups of the masses.
The election result of Uttar Pradesh is astonishing because of the unexpected overwhelming victory of BJP and debacle of SP and Congress alliance and BSP. It also challenges the exit report and the views of political analysts who had expected something different. It is interesting to analyse the causes of the oppositions’ debacle but, before that we should consider the political scenario and the factors that shape the political trends in UP.
Uttar Pradesh is known for communal frenzy. Prejudices exist between Hindus and Muslims that creates a sort of hatred, grievances and contradictory thinking and feeling between the members of both the communities. Petty matters and incidents soon turn into major conflicts and severe clashes take place that cause considerable damage. It has historical root. The gulf and hatred between these communities was created by the British to divert the attention of Indian people from major problems, involve them in conflicting issues, infighting and rule the country with ease and comfort. The tragedy is that after Independence, instead of burying created hatred, it was increased to an alarming extent and often flared up to reap socio-economic and political gain.
Uttar Pradesh’s is a highly segmented society. Various castes and sub-castes exist and mobilise themselves to get advantages and privileges of the ruling elite. In the wake of reservation most of the caste groups claim to fulfil the required criteria and demand reservation. At the same time, groups within the caste, cliques and other small groups emerge, claim themselves backward and demand reservation. At the time of election political parties attract them by promising some privileges to get their support. As a matter of fact, polarisation begins and affects the result of election.
Uttar Pradesh is a comparatively backward state. After seven decades of Independence, people have still problems of basic requirements of life. There is not full time supply of electricity, no adequate provision of clean water, no proper and adequate facility of healthcare, no adequate housing, no security and no justice. Government hospitals have no medicine, Govt. officials do not listen to the poor, and if listen, suggest to them irrelevant things. Money is very important; everybody wants to grab money from the pockets of the poor. If a person has no money, he cannot get his job done. Private hospitals and clinics are in great number. If a person wants treatment, he has to pay ₹400 as fee of the doctor and wait for his number. In case he is serious and wants to consult the doctor earlier, he has to pay ₹400 extra as emergency fee. At every street there is an English medium school, the fee is too much that a common man cannot afford and the standard of education is very poor.
Government offices are not concerned with the problems and difficulties of people; they are interested only in extracting money from public. In fact, they are sources of earning money. Some departments are well known for this fact where rates are fixed fort getting certain works done. Registration and RTO departments and clerks [peshkar] of courts are examples, to mention a few. Three factors are generally prevalent to get work done; money, hooligans and men of muscle and leaders of political parties particularly of ruling parties. This is the reason that the importance and the number of these persons are increasing day by day.
The most important and vote-catching slogans are emotional affiliation to religion, Hindu nation, caste affiliation, reservation of small groups within the caste, inclusion of some groups in backward category and the division of privileges, particularly laptop, cycle, mobile phone, gas and money. Development, “gharibi hatao” and employment of youth are the common slogans which almost all parties adopt, but they are not very effective.
UP election of 1917 was crucial because the winning party was expected to emerge powerful and play a significant role in moulding the public opinion and influencing the coming Parliamentary Elections of 1919. This is the reason that all political parties are trying their best and putting all their forces and resources to win the favour of people. There were four major parties: BJP, SP, BSP and Congress. Besides, there were many other small and local parties in the fray. They were not in a position to win the majority of seats, but could only serve as supporting hand.
The election was very crucial for BJP because it has to strengthen its position in Rajya Sabha by increasing the number of its party members and playing a dominant role in the coming election of President and Vice President. BJP launched a big campaign and the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah were the main speakers. BJP was from the very beginning of the election sure to oust not only the SP then ruling party, but also the BSP and the Congress from power and end the period of absence from the power.
SP under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, the then Chief Minister, was confident to get majority and form the government. Akhilesh Yadav being a young, enthusiastic and energetic man though not very much experienced in politics was overconfident to come back in power because of his developmental works, particularly the construction of roads and launching of mono rail. BSP leader Mayawati was also confident to get majority because of her vote bank “dalit” plus Muslim votes as she had given tickets to 90 Muslims to contest the election.
In the meantime, two significant events took place that affected the result of the election. First, the family feud of the SP took a serious shape. The conflict between Akhilesh Yadav and his uncle Shiv Pal Yadav the then President of the UP unit of the SP was aggravated. His decision as the Party President was challenged, not implemented and thus, he was humiliated. He was close to his brother Mulayam Singh Yadav, the then National President of the party. Mulayam Singh Yadav in order to restore the position of Shiv Pal Yadav expelled Akhilesh Yadav from the Party. This created a crisis in the party as well as in the government, but soon he rebutted his decision and took Akhilesh Yadav back in the party. The crisis, though for the time being, came to an end, but the conflict could not be resolved.
Akhilesh Yadav wanted to enjoy full power within the party and in the government and not to repeat this type of incident in future. He mobilised party members and with the support of them, particularly young members, challenged his own father along with his uncle Shiv Pal Yadav. The General Secretary of the party was the right hand of Akhilesh Yadav and also happened to be his uncle. He convened a meeting of the party attended by most of the party members, including MLAs, MLCs, and senior members. The meeting unanimously resolved and took drastic decisions according to which Mulayam Singh Yadav was appointed Patron and Akhilesh Yadav National President of the party. The meeting also resolved to oust Shiv Pal Yadav from the Presidency of the party.
However, at the end of the day, the party was split into two parts; majority of them supported Akhilesh Yadav but some also supported Mulayam and Shiv Pal Yadav. The second incident was the alliance between the SP and the Congress Party. The alliance took place with the initiatives of Mrs. Dimple Yadav of SP and Mrs. Priyanka Vadra of Congress and finalised in a few meetings between them and later between Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi. It was thought and expected that the alliance would play a significant role in attracting voters to its fold and positively affect the result of the election. It was also expected that the alliance would succeed to get the vehement support of Muslim voters. However, the alliance was considered strategically strong and expected to get victory.
The composition of voters’ population in Uttar Pradesh is complex. It consists of castes and sub-castes. According to an estimate, the total number of voters is 14.05 Crore out of which 7.7 Crore are male and 6.3 Crore female. Besides, 6,983 are third genders. The voters, from the election purpose, can be broadly divided in three groups: Forward caste, OBC and Dalits. Forward caste consists of 6 other castes, including Brahmins 6%, Rajputs 5.5%, Bania 2.3% jats 1.8% Kayasthas 0.9% and Others 5.5% and its total strength is 22%. OBC consists of 12 castes and the total strength is 40%. The highest number of OBC is Yadavs 6.5%, Kurmis 3.5% and Others 19%. The lowest of them is Nai 1.2%, Badhai 1.1% and Gurjar 1%. Dalits consist of 7 castes and its total strength is 21.2%. The highest number of them is of Chamars 11.3%, Pasis 3% and Others 1.6%. The lowest of them is Bholi 1%, Lohar 0.9%. Besides, Muslims constitute 19% to 25% depending on constituencies. They are in a balancing position. The full support of Muslims to any candidate or party enables them to win the election.
BJP’s stronghold was the voters of forward caste. The party was expecting the majority of votes from the forward castes’ voters. SP relied on Yadav voters and BSP on Dalit voters. However, these groups of voters alone could not constitute winning majority. The party concerned has to take the support from other caste groups in order to win the election. SP and Congress alliance besides Yadavs’ vehement support was also expecting Muslim votes. SP in the previous election of 2012 got vehement support of Muslim votes and on that basis it got a majority of seats. In this election it was confident to get Muslim support due to the Congress alliance though Muslims were not happy with the party because it had failed to fulfil the promise made in the previous election. BSP was also confident to get Muslim votes because of its strategy of social engineering according to which it permitted 90 Muslim candidates to context the election. Apart from this, it has also some contact with religious leaders of Shia, and the President of Ulama Party and promised to give some concessions.
In the election SP and the Congress alliance highlighted the development works done by Akhilesh Yadav and promised to do more after the election. BSP criticised the law and order situation, highlighted the exploitation of Dalits and minorities. Mayawati, the sole important leader of BSP, while criticising BJP’s attitude to influence Hindu sentiment, promised to change the condition of the downtrodden and minorities.
BJP played the Hindu card and placed itself as the protector of Hindu ethos. Modi as Prime Minister and a significant leader of the party from the very beginning of the election gave the impression that he is the saviour of the Hindu ethos, makes the country strong and crushes the enemy. The propagation of strategic attack and the befitting reply to Pakistan at the border are a few examples. His visit to temples, performance of puja, feeding cows and talking of “Qabristan” and “Shamshan”, and electric supply at the occasions of Eid and Diwali are other examples of influencing Hindu sentiments.
The other strategy the BJP adopted is to attract some OBC and Dalit castes to its fold by giving permission to their candidates to contest the election. Consequently, a considerable number of votes which were expected to go in favour of BSP went to BJP fold. Further, the BJP vehemently attacked SP, Congress, and BSP for their administration, activities, policies, attitude toward public in its meetings and rallies. The result was that SP, Congress and BSP leaders were engaged in counter attack and rebutting the statements of BJP leaders and failed to focus their attention on burning problems of demonetisation and increasing prices. However, BJP succeeded in its strategies of diverting the attention of opposition from main issues.
The result of the election is beyond all expectations. BJP emerged victorious with more than two-thirds majority. It contested 384 seats and won 312, sharing 39.7 per cent vote. SP contested 298 seats and won 47 seats, sharing 21.8 per cent vote. Congress contested 105 seats and won 7 seats, sharing 6.2 per cent vote. BSP contested 403 seats and won 19 seats, sharing 22.2 per cent vote. The debacle of the opposition in this election is significant and it is interesting to know the reasons of BJP victory.
DIVISION OF MUSLIM VOTES
Muslim votes are balancing in most of the constituencies of Uttar Pradesh. The tilt of the majority of Muslim votes to one side constitutes the winning majority. The vote of one caste group is not at all sufficient to win the election. This is the reason that SP and BSP always try to attract Muslim votes to their folds without which they cannot win the election. This is evident in the last election of 2012 when Muslims supported SP and it won the election with two-thirds majority. In this election Akhilesh Yadav was confident on his developmental work and thought that people will support his party. Further, he thought that SP and Congress alliance is the best choice for Muslims and they will support it.
Mayawati has bitter experience of the 2012 election; that is why she announced much concession to Muslims. She also contacted Muslim leaders and promised them to do what they wanted. The result was that Muslim votes got divided between SP-Congress alliance and BSP but the extent of support was not such that they can win the election. Further, AIMIM and Peace Party also divided Muslim votes and made them worthless. AIMIM contested 38 seats and all their candidates lost security but they made Muslim votes ineffective. Similarly, Peace Party with grand alliance contested 150 seats, won none and all their candidates lost security.
FAMILY FEUD IN SP
The family conflict between Akhilesh and his uncle became serious. Though the majority of the Yadav caste, particularly young members are with Akhilesh but some were also the supporters of his uncle and father. As such, Akhilesh Yadav could not get full support of the Yadav community. In his wife Dimple Yadav’s constituency, which is a Yadav dominant area, one BJP candidate won the election.
DIVISION OF DALIT VOTES
BJP applied a strategy to create division of Dalit votes and attract some of them to its fold. It gave ticket to members of some Dalit caste to contest the election. The result was that these candidates mobilised the members of their caste and brought them to the BJP group. This played an important role in changing the structure of caste affiliation. Thus, most of the traditional supporters of Mayawati went to the fold of BJP, causing great setback to BSP. The members of Prajapati and Chouhan castes supported BJP’s candidates because the members of their castes were contesting election under the BJP banner. This was the credit of BJP that it attracted Dalit votes towards it and damaged the strong base of BSP.
DISTRIBUTION OF PRIVILEGES
The BJP distributed gas and other privileges to the poor, particularly women. They were very happy and supported BJP candidates. Moreover, The BJP also promised many concessions and facilities to farmers, poor and needy persons without caste and creed. It promised to act upon the formulae of “development of all with the cooperation of all” with utmost sincerity.
HINDU CARD
BJP as usual played Hindu card influencing Hindu sentiment and emotion. Its leaders gave statements and highlighted the issues that created discomfort, a sort of hostility and hatred between Hindus and Muslims. The party gives the impression that it is the protector of Hindu ethos, religious and cultural traits and interests. To them, Muslims are intruders and unnecessarily sharing the privileges of the nation. They are needed to be dealt with strong hand. These ideas touch the long lasting hostility and hatred between Hindus and Muslims created by historical forces. Most of the Hindus, except for a small community who is well educated, liberal and has knowledge of the historical process, are affected by the statements, issues and views highlighted by their leaders. These ideas have emotional appeal and influence people to cast their votes in favour the party.