Since the institution of marriage is collapsing and live-in relationship and same sex marriage/relationship are not only being de-criminalised but also legalised and promoted, especially in the West, there is little chance of the rise in population, observes Soroor Ahmed
It is not only China which had recently witnessed fall in population.Several countries of Europe and East Asia are also facing thischallenge. Yet when Beijing announced that its population fell by850,000 in 2022, it got prominent coverage in media across the planet.This is the first time after 1961 that it saw decline in population.
This may not only be because China is the most populated country in theworld, but also because whatever happens there gets more than dueattention. There is no dearth of people in the West who celebratedthis decline in China’s population as it would lead to the sluggishgrowth rate. This is obviously because of the aging population.
The international media was quick to point out towards the one-childpolicy adopted by the Communist rulers in 1979-80, then two-childpolicy in 2015 and subsequently three-child policy in 2021. But the bigquestion is why the population is shrinking in those Capitalisteconomies where no such restriction has been imposed. This aspectshould also be discussed.
Spain, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Russia and several other Europeannations are facing acute shortage of human resources. Countries likethe United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany are justmanaging to increase their population by encouraging migration. Spain,which is among the countries facing fastest fall in population, isrelaxing its rule to allow people from Latin America to come andsettle. This is simply because till early 19th century Spain used tohave huge colonial empire in North and South America, especially in thelatter.
Countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand are also throwingtheir doors open as they are sparsely populated and have huge territory.
Role of Medical Science
Thanks to the advancement made in the field of medical science, therewas considerable fall in the death rate even though the birth rate toohas come down across the globe. The average life-span has almostdoubled in the last five to six decades. Therefore, the world witnesseda huge jump in the population in the 20th century. Panicked by thisdevelopment, many experts, especially in the West, started seekingimmediate strict measures to check population growth. In the processthey overlooked the fact that one day the growth rate would stabiliseas the life span has its limitation. Improvement in medical sciencedoes not mean that the human being is going to live forever.
Those who used to challenge this view were dubbed as religious orthodoxand conservatives. This was notwithstanding the fact that the latterhad their points.
By current rate of decline China’s population would come down from 142crore now to 131 crore in 2050 and just 80 crore in 2100.
RUSSIA FACING BIGGER CHALLENGE
But what will happen to Russia, a country with one-tenth population ofChina, that is just 14 crore. Here the number fell many times moresharply than that in China. In just first five months of 2022 the populationcame down by 430,000. If this rate continues, Russia may face extinctionin next 100 years.
Unlike several other countries, Russia is not attracting migrants fromoutside. In contrast it is locked in a bloody battle with Ukraine,which too is facing the challenge of declining population. Both thesecountries have lost more than two lakh young soldiers in the last oneyear of battle – not to speak of others.
The population of Japan started declining from 12.85 crore in 2010 to12.7 crore in 2014 to 12.5 crore a couple of years back. It islikely to come down to less than 10 crore (100 million) by 2050.
At present the United Kingdom and France are witnessing slow growth butby 2025 and 2044 respectively they would reach their peak. The declinewill start after that.
Contrary to this, the population of Italy is likely to fall from 59million to 57 million in 2030 and 54 million by 2050.
If Spain, France and the United Kingdom had huge colonies in the past andbecause of familiarity of language attract migrants, countries likeGermany and Italy did not have big empires outside Europe. Therefore,they are encouraging migrants in a different way and wooing students totheir respective countries. After completing their education, they arelikely to get job and settle.
Russia had a big empire till 1991. But after the disintegration of the Soviet Union more than 31 years back, its population came down by almosthalf. Russia’s problem is that most of the countries of Europe aroundit have very sparse population and have been facing similar crisis. Thefive Central Asian countries have just 7.2 crore population.
SPECIAL INCENTIVE
Though China is the latest to join the list of countries facing declinein population, many other governments are giving special incentive toparents to have more babies. Since the institution of marriage iscollapsing and live-in relationship and same sex marriage/relationshipare not only being de-criminalised but also legalised and promoted,especially in the West, there is little chance of the rise inpopulation.
Apart from this, the rightist and nationalist forces, which have gainedgrounds in several countries, are resisting the migrant policy of theirrespective countries. Not only that, migrants and even refugees arebeing targeted.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Though there is general concern among the establishment in most ofthese countries yet some experts are of the view that there is no needto panic. Their argument is that the fall in population is not so bad aphenomenon as is being made out. True, there will be a phase in whichthe older generation would outnumber the young and in the process thegovernment and the family will have to spend a huge amount of money onthem, but in the longer run things would stabilise. They are of theview that after a few years, the situation would improve and the qualityof life would be better.
The advent, according to them, of Artificial Intelligence would helpovercome the shortage of human resources. The world would not witnessthe senseless exploitation of resources because of the rapid increasein population.
MUSLIM WORLD AND SOUTH ASIA
But the problem is that it is the developed countries of West and EastAsia which are facing this grave challenge of decline in population. Itis not the poor and overpopulated countries of the Third World whichare exploiting the resources and putting pressure on Earth, butonly a handful of super rich of the developed world who are wreakinghavoc and virtually looting all the natural resources.
The population in the Muslim world and other countries of Asia andAfrica is growing at the normal pace or is stabilising. In South Asia, Bangladesh and even India have in the recent years seen much slowerrise in population. As the replacement rate is favourable at present,there is nothing to be alarmed.
The densely populated South Asia has the youngest human resources inthe world. If the migration from here to the West continues, it wouldnot be far off when their influence would increase in what is nowcalled the developed world. It is for them to ponder.