The Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 marked a pivotal moment in the capital’s political landscape, witnessing a dramatic shift in voter preferences, campaign strategies, and institutional influences. The contest saw the BJP emerging victorious, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) faced a significant setback after a decade-long rule. The Indian National Congress (INC) attempted a revival, whereas All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) played a role in vote fragmentation. Various factors worked against AAP, such as the Congress and AIMIM’s impact, and the role of institutions such as the Enforcement Directorate (ED), Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), and Election Commission of India (ECI) in shaping the election results.
Factors Influencing Voters Against AAP
The BJP’s Early Start and Relentless Attack: The BJP’s strategy of launching its campaign well ahead of the elections played a crucial role in shaping public perception. The party capitalised on controversies surrounding AAP, including the excise policy scandal and allegations of corruption, particularly regarding the extravagant renovation of then Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s residence, known as the ‘Sheesh Mahal.’ This relentless focus effectively undermined Kejriwal’s image as a leader committed to the common man.
Moreover, the BJP’s early criticisms of AAP’s welfare policies transformed into a dual strategy, allowing them to not only launch attacks on AAP but also to make populist promises, including the introduction of the 8th Pay Commission. This approach confused voters and reinforced the narrative of a “double-engine government,” suggesting seamless cooperation between a BJP-led central government and a BJP-led Delhi government.
Shift Among Middle-Class Voters: While AAP maintained support among lower-income groups due to its welfare schemes, middle-class voters grew increasingly disillusioned. Key issues like poor road conditions, traffic congestion, and pollution in the Yamuna River became major concerns. The BJP seized this opportunity, positioning itself as the party capable of “fixing” these longstanding problems. By promising tax relief and improvements in public services, the BJP effectively attracted this influential demographic, leading to a noticeable shift away from AAP.
Disillusionment Among Muslim Voters: A major factor in AAP’s electoral decline was the disillusionment of Muslim voters, who had previously been a strong support base due to the party’s stance on secularism and minority welfare. Many in the community criticised AAP for its perceived lack of resistance to BJP policies and selective silence on issues affecting them. This opportunistic approach led to a shift in votes toward Congress or AIMIM, further compounded by AAP’s inadequate outreach to the Muslim community.
Backfiring of the ‘Freebie’ Narrative: AAP’s welfare policies, once a cornerstone of its electoral success, began to backfire. Allegations of ‘fake medicines’ and ‘ghost patients’ in mohalla clinics raised doubts about the effectiveness of these services. Furthermore, the pollution in the Yamuna River and Kejriwal’s claims of Haryana’s responsibility alienated voters in border areas, resulting in significant losses for AAP. The BJP successfully framed AAP’s welfare schemes as unsustainable, turning the party’s strengths into vulnerabilities.
Decline of Brand Kejriwal: Arvind Kejriwal’s personal brand, which had symbolised simplicity and a connection to the common man, suffered a significant blow during this election cycle. The ‘Sheesh Mahal’ controversy highlighted his extravagant spending, portraying him as disconnected from the struggles of ordinary citizens. Anti-incumbency sentiment shifted from a critique of AAP’s governance to a direct challenge to Kejriwal’s leadership, as voters increasingly associated the party’s failures with his decisions, weakening the emotional bond he had previously established with the electorate.
The Anti-Incumbency Wave: After a decade in power, AAP faced a formidable anti-incumbency wave. Although the party had received praise for its achievements in education and healthcare, unfulfilled promises – especially regarding air quality improvements – became focal points of voter dissatisfaction. Many voters grew weary of AAP’s claims that the BJP-led central government was obstructing its efforts, viewing these explanations as mere excuses after ten years of governance. The BJP’s narrative of “double-engine governance” resonated with those seeking effective and coordinated leadership, further eroding AAP’s standing.
The Congress and AIMIM Factors
The INC has been in decline in Delhi since 2013. Despite a more focused campaign in 2025, internal divisions, lack of strong leadership, and an unclear vision for governance prevented the party from making significant gains. However, its presence in the elections hurt AAP by dividing the opposition vote, allowing BJP to consolidate power. Congress’ inability to form an effective alliance with AAP further weakened the anti-BJP front. Interestingly, in at least 13 constituencies, Congress candidates polled more votes than AAP’s margin of defeat, highlighting the impact of a divided opposition.
AIMIM’s emergence as a key player in Muslim-majority constituencies further complicated the electoral dynamics. The party positioned itself as a champion of minority rights but inadvertently helped the BJP by splitting the anti-BJP vote. Former AAP leader Tahir Hussain contested from Mustafabad on an AIMIM ticket and secured more votes than AAP’s margin of defeat, further fragmenting the opposition base. Additionally, AIMIM’s presence reignited the debate on identity politics and its long-term impact on electoral strategy.
The Role of Institutions
The role of ED and CBI in targeting Opposition parties has been a subject of intense debate. In the months leading up to the election, multiple cases against AAP leaders, including Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and his associates, raised concerns about political misuse of investigative agencies. While the BJP framed these actions as necessary for tackling corruption, Opposition parties and legal experts argued that the selective targeting of non-BJP parties undermined democratic fairness. The perceived use of law enforcement agencies for political gains continues to raise constitutional concerns.
The ECI’s neutrality was questioned regarding voter list discrepancies and alleged irregularities in electoral rolls. Reports indicated a sudden surge in new voter registrations favouring BJP while certain Opposition strongholds saw a reduction in registered voters. Such anomalies fuelledsuspicions about electoral manipulation, though no conclusive evidence of fraud was officially presented. Concerns over ECI’s ability to act as a neutral arbiter in India’s electoral process have prompted calls for electoral reforms.
The Future of Delhi’s Political Landscape
The aftermath of the 2025 elections is set to redefine Delhi’s political dynamics in several important ways.
With the BJP holding power at both the state and central levels, the party is now under scrutiny to fulfil its promises. Addressing critical issues such as urban infrastructure, unemployment, and social harmony – despite being at odds with its parent organisation’s communal agenda – will be vital for sustaining its dominance.
On the other hand, AAP’s defeat should not be seen as an endpoint but rather as a catalyst for a thorough reassessment of its political strategy. The party must rebuild its organisational structure, resolve internal conflicts, and adopt a more strategic approach to counter divisive politics. A renewed focus on minority rights, effective governance, and institutional autonomy will play an essential role in shaping its future.
For the Congress party, redefining its ideological stance and establishing grassroots connections will be essential to reclaiming its influence in Delhi. Meanwhile, AIMIM, although a smaller player, has carved out a permanent spot in the political landscape, potentially impacting future alliances. The roles of these parties in upcoming municipal and national elections will be crucial in determining Delhi’s broader political direction.
The Delhi elections 2025 have also heightened concerns about the autonomy of democratic institutions. The increasing involvement of central agencies in electoral outcomes could undermine essential checks and balances within the democratic framework. Safeguarding institutional independence will be crucial, and there will likely be growing calls for reforms in electoral oversight, media neutrality, and institutional integrity in the years to come.
Broader National Implications
The results of the Delhi elections carry significant national implications, particularly regarding minority politics and welfare policies. The disillusionment of Muslim voters with AAP reflects a wider trend of political alienation among minorities due to inadequate advocacy from Opposition parties. This shift may prompt parties like Congress and regional outfits to rethink their engagement strategies with these communities. Moreover, the BJP’s success, despite its initial opposition to free schemes, highlights voters’ nuanced expectations; while welfare is important, the focus is increasingly on the implementation and effectiveness of such policies.
Ultimately, the Delhi elections 2025illustrate the evolving democratic landscape in India. AAP’s decline, BJP’s resurgence, and Congress’s ongoing struggles underscore shifting political sentiments. As governance issues, ideological clarity, and strategic campaigning shape voter behaviour, the coming years will reveal whether the BJP can maintain its dominance or if Opposition forces can effectively regroup. The pressing question remains how to uphold democratic and constitutional values in an increasingly polarised political environment.
[The writer is Assistant Secretary, Jamaat-e-Islami Hind]