The hitherto little highlighted fact about the upcoming election for four states and one Union Territory is that while the Congress Party has been left with hardly anything to lose, much is at stake for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
What is more interesting is that the process of political realignment has got further boost after the announcement of the poll schedules by the Election Commission on February 26. Thus, nobody can predict the poll outcome in any of these states and one UT.
While Puducherry has been placed under the President’s Rule after defections from the ruling-Congress-DMK alliance government led by V Narayanaswamy, in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the former general secretary of AIADMK V K Sasikala on March 3 night announced her decision to step aside from politics and thus prevent the division of votes against the common enemy, the DMK. As the DMK-Congress-Left alliance, according to the Tamil Nadu watchers, is very formidable, the BJP reportedly prevailed upon Sasikala to stay away from active politics.
ASSAM SCENARIO
The BJP, which is ruling Assam, and was till a couple of weeks back quite confident of winning it, is now finding itself in a somewhat tight position after the exit of Bodoland Peoples’ Front on February 27. A day later the BPF joined the Congress-led Mahajath. The coming together of most of the opposition parties under the banner of Mahajath, has to a much extent, changed the equation.
Apart from the latest entrant, the BPF, Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front, the CPI, CPM, CPI-ML and a couple of regional parties are its constituents. The Bihar-based Rashtriya Janata Dal may soon join it.
Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi’s two-day visit to Assam on March 1 and 2, which follows the one undertaken by her brother, Rahul, has come as a big morale-booster to the opposition camp. The problem with the BJP is that it is losing friends. The BPF, which had 12 MLAs and was supporting the Sarbananda Sonowal government in Assam is not the only one to part ways. This is a big blow for the ruling NDA.
The other challenge comes from the Asom Gana Parishad, which has 14 legislators. It is now a divided house over the issue of Citizenship Amendment Act. Its students’ wing, the All Assam Students’ Union’s stand against the CAA is very well-known.
Yet on March 4 night the BJP managed to sew up a seat-sharing agreement with the AGP. While the saffron party would contest 92 seats, it left 26 for the AGP and eight for United People’s Party Liberal, a small Bodoland outfit.
Assam has a history of clashes between the Bodos and Bengali-speaking Muslims, and Bodos and Tea-tribes. Tea-tribes are those Adivasis who were taken from what is now called Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and parts of South Bengal and Bihar by the British imperialists between 1855 and 1890 and settled down in the highland of Upper Assam. The British wanted to crush the rebellious indigenous people of Assam. They also wanted to teach the Santhals and other tribes of North and South Chotanagpur plateau a bitter lesson as they were resisting them. The Adivasis were uprooted and re-settled in Assam to work in the tea plantation and other related works in the jungles. Thus, the Adivasis were pitted against the Bodos and other people of Assam.
Ahead of the 2021 Assembly poll, the Congress’ plan is to woo all these three sections of the society along with the other people of Assam. Both Bodo and Adivasi leaders are now charging that they were cheated by the BJP in the last five years. They are now reportedly moving away from the saffron brigade. Priyanka made it a point to spend time with the Tea-tribes, whose number is about 65 lakh, that is about 20 per cent of the state population.
TOUGH BATTLE IN WEST BENGAL
In neighbouring West Bengal, the BJP, which got off a great start in November and December last, gradually appears to be losing the steam. This is so notwithstanding four high-profile trips by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Jan 23, Feb 7 and 22 and March 7 as well as half a dozen similar visits by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. During his second visit to the poll-bound state on December 19-20, Shah inducted some prominent leaders of Trinamool Congress, Congress and Left to the BJP. The most well-known face is that of Suvendhu Adhikari, who quit from the Mamata cabinet in November last. Suvendhu used to represent Nandigram Assembly seat for the Trinamool Congress till he resigned. Now Mamata has decided to contest from the same seat.
It needs to be mentioned that it was from Nandigram in East Midnapore district that Mamata started her struggle against the then Left Front government’s land acquisition policy for Special Economic Zone in 2007. The movement spread to Singur in Hooghly district where Tatas wanted to manufacture Nano cars. It was these movements which led to the fall of the 34-year old Left rule in 2011.
The irony is that Suvendhu and his family members were politically benefited by the Nandigram struggle. While he ended up becoming a powerful minister in the Mamata cabinet, his father and brother got elected to the Lok Sabha. Technically, there are still MPs of Trinamool Congress. It is another thing that the BJP leaders only accuse Mamata – or Gandhi-Nehru family elsewhere – for the dynastic rule.
But of late the BJP is finding it a bit difficult to offer anything concrete for the people. On Jan 23 function to mark the 124th birth anniversary of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose, the party got locked down with the TMC over the slogan of Jai Shri Ram and Modi, Modi. As the function was official and the PM was very much present, Mamata chose the occasion to chastise the BJP supporters and refused to speak. In the long run now, it can be said that the saffron party did not gain anything by this slogan-shouting.
Barring some religious and emotional slogans, the BJP has not yet been able to provide an alternative leader in West Bengal, where the stature of Mamata is still taller than any one from the saffron party. The big rise in fuel prices, especially of cooking gas in the last three months, has even dampened the spirit of its own voters. Mamata is fully exploiting this disenchantment among the people and has undertaken two big ‘Padyatras’ (Foot marches) – one in North Bengal and another in South.
Besides, Rahul Gandhi’s decision to keep himself away from the February 28 joint rally of the Congress and Left Front has certainly come as a sort of strategic support to Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress. Rahul did not stop there. He chose only to campaign for the Congress candidates and not for the Left party nominees, though the two parties are contesting election in alliance in West Bengal.
Mamata has succeeded in drawing support from a number of regional parties. The leader of Bihar-based Rashtriya Janata Dal, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, went all the way to Kolkata to announce his party’s full support for Mamata. Though RJD used to have an MLA in the past yet the party decided against contesting from the state.
The former Uttar Pradesh chief minister, Akhilesh Singh Yadav of Samajwadi Party, rang up to Mamata to lend his party’s support to her. So did the Nationalist Congress Party. Its alliance partner in Maharashtra, Shiv Sena refused to contest in West Bengal and called Mamata a tigress who is single-handedly taking on the BJP.
At the same time came the announcement from Samyukt Kisan Morcha, an umbrella organisation of agitating farmers, to lend support to all those parties in different states/ UTs, who are in a position to defeat the BJP.
THE KERALA BATTLE
In contrast, Kerala is witnessing a new type of development. Here the state BJP has recommended the name of Metro Man, E Sreedharan (89), as the chief ministerial face even though the party is nowhere in contest. Political pundits are of the view that it may not get even 15 per cent of votes. Perhaps the idea is to get maximum number of votes in his name and thus broad-base its following.
The battle in Kerala is too open with the ruling Left Democratic Front and Congress-led United Democratic Front locked in a tough battle.
Till a couple of months back independent Kerala watchers were of the view that the LDF may make two in a row this time and thus in the process break the over four decades old practice of change of government after every five years.
But by the widespread campaign by Rahul Gandhi, who is also the MP from Wayanad in the state, the Congress has come to the fighting position.