After capturing Haryana, Maharashtra, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar by what opposition parties dub “fraudulent means,” the ruling BJP now appears to be setting its sights on West Bengal while attempting to retain Assam. Yet, the party’s southern ambitions remain constrained, with Tamil Nadu and Kerala continuing to resist its ideological and electoral advances. Against this charged backdrop – marked by a looming global energy crisis triggered by tensions in West Asia and an unprecedented impeachment motion against CEC Gyanesh Kumar Gupta and “unfinished” controversial SIR – the announcement of assembly election dates for five crucial regionshas intensified political fault lines.
These elections, spanning West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry, are not merely routine democratic exercises. They represent a decisive political moment involving over 17.4 crore voters and 824 legislative assembly seats. Scheduled across April 2026, with counting set for May 4, the polls will test not just state governments but the broader political narrative heading toward the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
Thepoll panel has compressed the polling schedule. West Bengal, which witnessed an exhausting 8-phase election in 2021, will vote in just two phases this time. Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry will go to the polls in a single phase on April 9, while Tamil Nadu votes on April 23 alongside WB’s first phase. The second phase in Bengal follows on April 29.
As the poll body has the lowest ebb of its credibility, Opposition parties have questioned the timing and structure of the schedule, alleging that institutional mechanisms are being manipulated to favourthe ruling party. Whether these concerns hold merit or not, the perception itself has added a layer of distrust to an already polarised political climate.
West Bengal
In West Bengal,the contest between the ruling TMC and BJP has evolved into a high-voltage ideological and electoral battle. From being a marginal player, the BJP surged to win 18 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 and 77 assembly seats in 2021. However, its tally dropped to 12 in the 2024 parliamentary elections, raising questions about whether its growth has plateaued.
MamataBanerjee has launched a sharp offensive against the ECI, alleging that recent transfers of senior bureaucrats and police officials were orchestrated under BJP pressure. The removal of key figures like Chief Secretary Nandini Chakravorty and DGPPeeyush Pandey has triggered controversy, with the TMC accusing the Centre of attempting to influence the electoral machinery.
She alleged that officers were replaced to facilitate the movement of money and arms, reflecting the intensity of distrust. Whether rhetoric or reality, such claims underline the high stakes of Bengal’s political battlefield. During the controversial SIR in West Bengal alone, over 61 lakh names were removed. Despite all these odds, TMC MP NadimulHaq exudes confidence that TMC will win elections with flying colours.Speaking with Radiance,Haq said BJP wants to play Bihar herebutit will be miserably failed.
Tamil Nadu
In Tamil Nadu, the election unfolds as a complex and unpredictable contest. The ruling DMK aimsat a historic second consecutive term, a feat the party has not achieved since 1971.Here, the contest is not merely electoral but sharply ideological – a sustained confrontation between Dravidian thought and Hindutva. Over the past five years, DMK has not just critiqued but actively targeted what it frames as Hindutva politics and Vedic traditions, with several of its ministers publicly attacking the Manusmriti as a symbol of social hierarchy and exclusion. This has further intensified the ideological divide.
Facing it is the principal opposition, AIADMK, led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami, which is striving to reclaim relevance after years of electoral setbacks following the death of J. Jayalalithaa.
Adding a new dimension is actor-turned-politician Vijay and his TamilagaVetriKazhagam (TVK), whose entry has disrupted traditional vote banks. Alongside them, Seeman’s Naam TamizharKatchi (NTK) ensures a rare four-cornered contest.
The ideological clash between Dravidian politics and Hindutva narratives has sharpened. Yet, beneath the rhetoric lies a more grounded concern: governance fatigue. Despite claims of economic growth, sections of government employees and civil society groups have protested unmet promises. The DMK has responded with welfare measures, attempting to neutralise anti-incumbency.
For Palaniswami, this election is existential. Vijay intends to emerge as kingmaker, or even king. However, BJP’s estranged leader Subramanium Swamy says the ruling DMK is unbeatable and new entrant Vijay is irrelevant.
CPI is contesting five seats in DMK alliance.
Assam
In Assam, BJP appearsto be leaning heavily on communal rhetoric, amid criticism that his government has fallen short on key promises. HimantaBiswaSarma’s administration has repeatedly been accused by opponents of targeting Muslims in a bid to consolidate support among tribal groups. At the same time, Sarma continues to face allegations of corruption, with critics asserting that his exit from the Congress was driven by an attempt to evade potential legal action linked to decisions taken during his tenure in that party.
Meanwhile,the mainoppositionCongress is attempting a comeback through alliances and strategic positioning. It is banking on minority consolidation, anti-incumbency, and allegations of corruption against the ruling establishment. Gogoi’s victory in Jorhat during 2024 Lok Sabha elections has provided momentum.
Yet, internal weaknesses persist. Defections, organisational fragility, and shifting voter loyalties, especially among tea garden workers, pose significant challenges.
The BJP, meanwhile, faces its own troubles. Ticket distribution has sparked rebellion, with leaders like Nihar Ranjan Das resigning in protest. Accusations of sidelining grassroots workers in favour of defectors highlight internal tensions.
Overlaying all this is the persistent use of identity politics. With Muslims constituting nearly 40% of the electorate, vote division between Congress and AIUDF could prove decisivein determining the outcome.
Kerala
Kerala presents a different political rhythm. The CPI(M)-led LDF is aiming for an unprecedented third consecutive term.The Congress-led UDF and BJP-led NDA are both striving to disrupt this continuity.Key contests, such as in Manjeshwaram and Peravoor, have drawn attention, with leaders like KK Shailaja bringing administrative credibility into the fray.
Internal disputes within CPI(M), including allegations of fund mismanagement, could dent the LDF’s image. However, its track record in governance, especially in crisis management, remains a strong asset.
Kerala’s electorate, known for its political awareness, will likely weigh performance over rhetoric, making the outcome particularly intriguing.
Puducherry
In Puducherry, the contest between the ruling AINRC-BJP alliance and Congress-DMK bloc is finely balanced. Chief Minister N. Rangasamy remains a popular figure, but his alliance with BJP could prove costly this time. For many Tamilians, Hindutva is perceived not merely as a political ideology but as a direct challenge to their ancient Dravidian cultural identity.
However, governance concerns, corruption allegations, and unresolved demands for statehood present vulnerabilities. The opposition, led by figures like V. Vaithilingam, hopes to capitalise on these issues.
Electoral Rolls and Politics of Numbers
Beyond campaigns and candidates, the mechanics of elections themselves have come under scrutiny. The SIR of electoral rolls has led to significant additions and deletions.Tamil Nadu saw 74 lakh deletions and 27.53 lakh additions, while Assam recorded both substantial inclusions and exclusions.Such manufacturedchanges have fuelled opposition concerns about voter disenfranchisement.
For BJP, victories in states like West Bengal and Assam would consolidate its national dominance. For the opposition, especially regional parties, these polls offer a chance to reclaim political space and challenge the BJP and RSS’s narrative.