At first glance, the crisis unfolds quietly – outside neighbourhood gas agencies, in the lengthening queues of households clutching empty LPG cylinders, and in the shuttered kitchens of small restaurants. But beneath these everyday disruptions lies a far more consequential story, stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to nearly 300 million Indian homes.
What India is confronting today is not merely a supply disruption; it is the unravelling of a long-standing illusion: that energy security can be managed without confronting geopolitical risk. As the war escalates in West Asia, the consequences are no longer distant abstractions. They are immediate and visible.
A War Reached the Kitchen
The signs of stress are unmistakable. LPG shortages have triggered long queues, disrupted food businesses, and revived black-market activity.Commercial kitchens are among the worst hit. “Cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Pune are among the most affected because restaurants and street vendors rely heavily on commercial LPG,” said Nitesh Kumar Das of the Gig Workers Association.
For gig workers and daily-wage earners, the fallout is brutal. As kitchens go cold, delivery orders shrink, incomes collapse, and an already fragile urban workforce is pushed closer to the brink. What began as a fuel shortage is rapidly turning into a livelihood crisis.
At the core of the crisis lies a structural vulnerability successive governments have failed to resolve: India’s overwhelming dependence on imported energy.
Despite the Modi government’s repeated invocation of “Atmanirbharta,” the reality remains stark. India imports nearly 85-90% of its crude oil and over half of its natural gas. Strategic reserves remain perilously low – barely enough for a week to nine days.
Over the past decade, instead of declining, this dependence has steadily increased, leaving the country dangerously exposed to global disruptions. A $10 per barrel rise in crude prices can widen the current account deficit sharply and shave nearly 0.5% off GDP.
Critics argue that while the government focused on headline economic nationalism, it failed to build meaningful energy buffers or diversify supply chains adequately, leaving India vulnerable when crisis struck.
War, Miscalculation, and Policy Drift
The current disruption is tied to escalating hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran – conflict that has destabilised one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz.
Political analyst M.K. Venu has suggested that the crisis may also reflect a misreading at the highest levels of government.“Modi and Jaishankar appear to have assumed the conflict would be short-lived – two or three days at most.”
That assumption has proven costly. Instead of a brief flare-up, the conflict has intensified, threatening energy flows through a corridor vital to India’s imports.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has engaged in urgent diplomatic outreach, including conversations with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, stressing the need to maintain freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet India’s broader stance has drawn scrutiny. While New Delhi condemned Iranian strikes on Gulf targets, it has remained conspicuously silent on U.S. and Israeli actions against Iran.Veteran diplomat Chinmaya R. Gharekhan has raised concerns that India’s Iran policy appears influenced by US-Israel considerations – raising uncomfortable questions about strategic autonomy.
Critics argue that this calibrated silence has weakened India’s leverage at a critical moment, limiting its ability to secure stable energy access.
Political Heat Rises at Home
The domestic political fallout has been swift. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi warned that the crisis is only beginning.Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera went further, branding the situation a “Modi-made disaster” and accusing the government of compromising India’s strategic independence.
Invoking the imagery of the classic film Sahib Bibi Aur Ghulam, Khera likened India’s foreign policy posture to that of a subordinate,arguing that alignment with global powers has come at the cost of national interest.
Khera drew parallels with the film’s characters, describing “Modi’s relationship with the US and Israeli leaders like that of a ‘ghulam’ with his ‘Sahib’ and ‘Bibi’”.
He claimed that up to 60% of households are facing LPG shortages and warned of possible rationing, including reduced cylinder quantities. He also criticised the government’s silence on civilian casualties in Iran and alleged missed opportunities to negotiate energy trade in Indian rupees rather than Chinese currency.
Government Pushback and Ground Reality
The government has strongly rejected these allegations. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri described India as an “oasis of energy security,” citing measures like increasing commercial LPG allocation, prioritising supply to key industries, cutting excise duties on fuel, and cracking down on hoarding and black marketing.
Officials insist there is no nationwide shortage. Petroleum Ministry representative Sujata Sharma said refineries are operating at high capacity and that adequate crude inventories are in place.
For many citizens, these assurances ring hollow. The persistence of long queues and supply gaps tells a different story.
Congress leader Jairam Ramesh also underlined in post on X: “Between 2014/15 and 2024/25, India’s dependence on crude oil imports went up from 84% to 90%.Between 2014/15 and 2024/25, India’s dependence on LPG imports went up from 46% to 62%.The natural gas story is murkier.
“On June 26, 2005, then CM of Gujarat boasted that the Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) had discovered India’s biggest gas reserve in the deep waters of the Krishna-Godavari river basin. Modi announced that this would make India energy independent. CAG reports between 2011 and 2016 were to reveal later that this was a Rs 20,000 crore scam which was subsequently covered by the PM, forcing GSPC’s merger into ONGC in Aug. 2017. The gas grandly promised by Mr. Modi has remained that – gas.”
Black Markets and Systemic Breakdown
Perhaps the clearest indicator of distress is the return of black marketing. LPG cylinders are reportedly being sold at exorbitant rates, in some cases reaching ₹5,000. There are also reports that the authorities were considering supplying only 10 kg of gas in a 14.2 kg cylinder.
This is not merely a supply issue; it reflects a breakdown in distribution systems and public trust. When formal channels falter, informal markets inevitably take over.
The crisis has exposed deeper weaknesses in India’s energy architecture. Unlike countries such as China, which maintain substantial strategic reserves, India’s buffers remain minimal.The government’s push toward piped natural gas (PNG) may offer long-term relief, but it provides little immediate respite. Meanwhile, disruptions in gas supply are already affecting fertiliser production, forcing India to turn to imports – ironically, from China.
A Moment of Reckoning
The West Asian conflict is not the first to disrupt global energy markets, but its impact on India is unusually severe because of structural vulnerabilities and policy choices.Unlike previous crises, this one has penetrated deeply into everyday life – into kitchens, livelihoods, and food systems.
The Central Consumer Protection Authority has already warned restaurants against passing fuel costs onto consumers, calling such practices unfair. Yet concerns remain that welfare schemes, including mid-day meals under PM POSHAN, could be affected if the crisis deepens.
At its core, this crisis is no longer just about fuel supply. It raises fundamental questions:Can India insulate itself from geopolitical shocks?Has its foreign policy enhanced or constrained its strategic options?And has the government done enough to prepare for predictable global disruptions?For now, the answers remain uncertain.
What is clear, however, is: energy is no longer merely an economic issue. It is a question of sovereignty, resilience, and governance. And in millions of Indian kitchens, that reality is already burning as they had experienced during the Covid-induced lockdown and the decision of demonetisation in 2016.