DR. S. AUSAF SAIED VASFI analyses the Congress debacle in three of the five State Assemblies that recently went to polls.
The results of the five State Assemblies – U.P, the Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur – are already out. The common thread in the five verdicts is the shambolic record of the Congress. Just a tie helped it in Uttarakhand. The party lost Goa and the Punjab. However, it did well in tiny and politically insignificant Manipur. But in Uttar Pradesh its defeat was the most devastating. To the winner, the Samajwadi Party, the victory in U.P. was stunning and unconventional, and guaranteed instability.
The all-important question in which the Congress appears to be the least interested is: what caused the debacle? The other question exercising the general mind is: Can U.P. serve as a model for the Muslim electorate in 2014 general elections? The third and the last question occupying the mind of the thinking sections is: Can the polls usher in tranquillity and provide a fillip for development?
SYCOPHANCY COMEBACK
The Congress has, instead of dealing with the simple but million-dollar question in a straightforward manner, presented a hitherto unknown scene by repeating ad nauseam that Mr. Rahul Gandhi was not responsible for the Congress defeat. Do his defenders know that public is laughing at them? What is noteworthy is that the said denial had been yapped by Mr. Digvijay Singh, Ms. Rita Joshi and Mr. Beni Prasad, all top rankers of the defeated party. To them it was the organisational weakness that spoiled the political sports. To Ms. Sonia Gandhi, it is the multiplicity of leaders that caused the undoing. Mr. Rahul Gandhi was, however, courageous enough to own responsibility publicly for what is more than a setback. Obviously, the good old days of competing sycophancy have made their presence felt. Can you recall ‘India is Indira, and Indira is India’? Would the competing coterie of ace flatterers mind being told, rather retold, that it was, in addition to the rampant corruption, inflation, price rise and unpopularity as well as mismanagement, the mindless arrests of Muslim youth in fictitious cases to be ultimately freed by the courts, vindicating their innocence, that caused the Congress defeat in U.P. Muslims have not forgotten, and perhaps will not forget, the inexplicable taint, indefensible character-assassination and hideous destruction of the future of Muslim boys.
FICTION AS FACTS
The latest on the issue is the release of Abdul Baki Mandal by the Delhi High Court on March 5. To the police, the bewildered accused was a Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist. For six-and-a-half years, without any rhyme or reason, Mr. Abdul Baki remained in jail. The trial court had handed him out seven years as punishment. But his able and competent lawyer, Mr. Ajay Verma, spilling the beans, told the Delhi High Court that Mandal was picked up months before his formal arrest from the New Delhi Railway Station and forced to work for Special Cell in Bangladesh. On his refusal to follow their bidding, he was framed in the case.
After this yet another revelation, how do the top ranks of Police and Intelligence officials feel? They avoidably destroyed a career. Would they mind taking action against their less-than-responsible subordinates who have got exceptionally fertile mind in concocting less-than-true stories? Understandably, Justice Suresh Kait reduced the prosecution case to smithereens.
Behind the U.P. result is also lurking the unjustifiable obduracy of police in the Batla House case. But they, to be fair, demonstrated their sense of responsibility when the Gujarat police tried once again to pick up innocent Muslim boys from the Jamia Millia area. Also lurking is the murder of Ishrat Jehan.
Behind the U.P. poll results is also tardy implementation of the Sachar Committee Report, which says that Muslim backwardness is worse than that of the Dalits. The wounds inflected on the psyche of Muslims refuse to heal up because of the Congress apathy bordering on insensitivity.
Did Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, as a mature politician, not know all this? He played his cards swiftly, silently and wisely.
In the Assembly polls, the Muslims voted massively and voted almost en block. It turned them as well as some upper caste sections of the majority community into king-makers.
FIGURES SPEAK OUT
Out of 133 Muslims fielded by the Samajwadi Party, 45 are Muslims; the Congress finished just 10. Significantly, it was not the Samajwadi Party alone which found success in minority contested districts. The BSP also bagged 30, the BJP 22 and the RLD three. The last minute quota politics indulged in by the Congress backfired as the Muslims saw through the game. Nobody was prepared to put trust into Congress gimmick. It had laboriously torpedoed its credibility.
On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party promise to ensure 18 per cent reservation for the Muslims in jobs along with farm loans waver up to Rs. 50,000, which will benefit a large number of peasants from the minority community in the Purvanchal, turned out to be the winning factor.
Out of 403, there are 140 constituencies of Muslims in U.P. that can tilt the balance. According to a report in a national daily, while the Congress played the quota card, the SP announced it would work for a constitutional amendment to provide 18 per cent separate reservation for Muslims. The BSP, in turn, gave tickets to 85 Muslims, the maximum in comparison to others. But from all indications, Muslims largely voted for the SP helping it swing the elections in its favour.
There are around 140 constituencies in U.P. where Muslims constitute more than 30 per cent of the population, it is over 30 per cent in 67 constituencies. Results of these 140 constituencies show that the SP won 72 seats, more than half in contention. The BSP, too, garnered some of the Muslim votes, winning 27 seats.
Throughout the length and breadth of the country there are 120 constituencies with formidable Muslim presence. The minority people can tilt the electoral balance over there. U.P. can be played in these constituencies provided there is proper strategy and planning. The Muslim leadership represented by the All India Muslim organisations could do well to take note of this fact.
WOOLLY-HEADED APPROACH
The woolly-headed are not giving due importance to the Congress defeat. This simpleton-like attitude is disquieting and will not alter the situation. Here is an opportunity for the Muslim leadership. How grave is the present situation can be imagined from the fact that the Congress commands a little more than 30 per cent of the electoral votes for the oncoming Presidential election. If the allies support continues, the support could be 40 per cent. But nothing can be said with a sense of certainty in view of the wavering postures adopted by the allies like Trinamool and NCP. The Congress has to nominate a candidate who is acceptable to the regional parties, to the BJP-ruled States and of course the not-so-dependable allies.
As far as the oncoming budget is concerned, in view of U.P., it would now be difficult for the Finance Minister to present a hard budget to check fiscal deficit. It is bound to be populist. As the ill-luck would have it, the Congress has added to its problems. Till now the UPA felt uncomfortable with Ms. Mamta Bannerjee, Mr. Nitish Kumar, Mr. Biju Patnaik and Ms. Jayalalita. Now Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav is very much there to add to the Congress owes.
PACT-BASED POLITICS
If you go back to the 1970s, you will find Muslims paving the way for pact-based politics. Sustained efforts have not so far been made in this regard. But the gradual assertiveness on the part of minorities speaks volume about the future mode of politics.
As far as the model elections are concerned, Bharat has – we say so with confidence – imperceptibly moved towards immorality, promiscuity, lasciviousness and characterlessness. If this dangerous drift is not arrested, the basically religious Bharat would resemble the basically irreligious west. What has had been happening in the elections is the proverbial Tweedledums exchange chairs with the Tweedledees. Character is a casualty in the process. The situation is such that the common honesty is lampooned at. Probity is at a discount and moral laxity carries a premium. Unfortunately, the country has no worth emulating model. There is no ideal and no example. The nation has been rusting from within and without. There is a no hordes barred attitude. An embarrassing question that is often asked now is who will judge the judges.
Not long ago the CBI lawyers took Rs. 1.25 crore to dilute Adarsh charges. A former Congress lawmaker and his son were also arrested for the conspiracy.
Another example of corruption. A CBI sword has been hanging over the head of Mr. Mulayam Singh’s family in connection with wealth beyond the known sources. We Muslims honestly feel that the plural Bharat should sincerely try to reinvent and rediscover itself. Religious and moral values deserve revival and renaissance. Let us think sincerely about the benefits of God-fearingness, piety and accountability on the Day of Judgement. Let the alternative thinking strike roots.
You are, of course, at liberty to reject what we feel can solve our problems.