The year 2026 just began with the BJP-led government celebrating a projected GDP growth rate of 7.4%, higher than previous years. Almost instantly, party spokespersons flooded television debates and social media platforms, claiming this as proof that the long-promised “Achhe Din” had finally arrived. The BJP’s IT cell amplified the narrative, projecting India as the world’s fastest-growing economy and portraying the government as an unmatched driver of development. However, beneath this celebratory noise lies a starkly different economic reality,one that millions of Indians experience daily. In this article, we will be examining the facts vs. fiction which the current regime has been playing and taking people of this country for a ride. Let’s begin.
Markets in Turmoil amid GDP Celebrations
While GDP projections made headlines, the stock market was in free fall. The Sensex crashed by nearly 2,000 points, triggered by increased tariff rates announced by former U.S. President Donald Trump. Simultaneously, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew approximately ₹7,068 crore from Indian markets within the first two days of January 2026. To prevent a further slide in the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India reportedly spent nearly USD11.9 billion, highlighting the fragility of India’s macroeconomic stability. These developments sharply contradict the image of a booming economy painted by GDP figures.
Growth Without Relief: Life at Ground Zero
Despite claims of robust growth, ordinary citizens see no tangible improvement in their lives. Salaries remain stagnant, job creation is weak, household expenses are rising, and job insecurity looms large. For many employed individuals, the fear of layoffs in an unstable market is constant. This disconnect raises a crucial question: If India is truly the fastest-growing economy, why is this growth invisible in people’s daily lives?
The government often avoids serious public discussion on GDP calculations, citing their technical complexity,base year changes, old vs new series, inflation adjustments, organised vs unorganised sector estimates, and proxy-based measurements. While GDP math is indeed complex, common sense indicators can still reveal economic health.
If GDP growth were genuine and broad-based, it would reflect clearly inforeign direct investment (FDI), job creation and productivity, manufacturing leadership, wage growth, and domestic corporate investment. Yet, these indicators tell a worrying story.
Foreign Investors are Voting with Their Feet
India is repeatedly labelled the fastest-growing economy, yet foreign investors pulled out nearly ₹1.66 lakh crore from Indian markets. Investment outflows worsened through 2024 and 2025, with the final quarter of 2025 witnessing more money exiting India than entering it. Investors follow profits, not slogans,and they are increasingly unconvinced.
This debate is not about economic theory. It directly affects household finances, job security, savings, and the ability to afford healthcare and emergencies. While the government celebrates headline growth, the IMF has reportedly graded India’s national account data as “C”, citing serious methodological concerns.
The reasons are clear:GDP base year stuck at 2011–12, use of outdated deflators like Wholesale Price Index (WPI) instead of Producer Price Index (PPI), a flawed CPI basket, and weak coverage of the unorganised sector. Together, these flaws inflate GDP numbers while hiding distress.
The Unorganised Sector: The Invisible Collapse
Nearly 30% of India’s economy comes from the unorganised non-agricultural sector, yet it is measured using crude proxies,assuming it performs well whenever the organised sector does. This assumption collapsed after demonetisation, COVID-19, and global shocks.
Gig workers struggling for petty earnings, informal traders shutting shops, and daily-wage earners losing work all point to an unorganised sector in emergency mode a reality not reflected in GDP figures.
While the masses struggle, the top 1-2% of Indians are thriving. Sales of Rolls-Royce, luxury cars, premium apartments, and global brands are booming. High-end malls are crowded but mostly by the same small elite.
Economist Ashoka Mody notes that India’s consumption pattern is extremely narrow, driven by a tiny affluent class. Ironically, this group often spends on foreign goods, overseas travel, and global brands,exporting wealth rather than building domestic manufacturing.
India may have 1.45 billion people, but economically, it behaves like a country of 140-150 million consumers.
Where are India’s Global Giants?
Two U.S. companies,Google and Nvidia,have market valuations larger than India’s GDP. India, despite being called the fourth-largest economy, lacks global corporations that generate massive international revenue flows back home.
Global firms now recognise that India’s high-paying consumer base is limited,and this is another reasoninvestors are retreating.
Corporate investment once contributed 19% of GDP in 2016. By 2024, it fell to 14%, despite loud claims of a thriving business environment. Even domestic corporations are hesitant to expand.
While the Finance Minister claims India’s retail sector can absorb shocks, the truth is simpler: capital controls and limited overseas investment options trap domestic money within India,not confidence.
The Job Crisis Exposes the Myth
Nothing exposes economic distress more starkly than employment data. When 10,000 railway vacancies attract 1.2 crore applications, or when 5,000 peon posts in Jaipur draw nearly 25 lakh applicants, including PhD holders,it signals a deep jobs crisis. Yet the government continues to claim that unemployment is only around 5 percent. This illusion is sustained by following the ILO definition of employment, where working just one hour a week qualifies a person as “employed.”
Under this logic, gig workers putting in barely 40 hours a year are counted as employed, disguised unemployment is ignored, and those who stop actively searching for jobs disappear from official statistics. This is not genuine job creation; it is statistical manipulation.
Manufacturing: A Broken Promise
“Make in India” aimed to raise manufacturing’s share of GDP to 25% by 2022. A decade later, it remains stuck around 17%, with signs of further decline as demand weakens and power consumption falls.
The project lost momentum as governance shifted focus to divisive politics instead of economic reform.
Household debt is rising, savings are shrinking, exports are weakening, and the trade deficit is widening,especially with high tariffs and dependence on Chinese imports. Rising costs mean families earn more but save less, eroding long-term security.
India cannot overcome its economic crisis without first acknowledging that the GDP narrative itself is deeply flawed. Meaningful reform must begin with fixing how growth is measured – by updating the GDP base year, adopting the Producer Price Index (PPI), and improving data collection from the unorganised sector, which forms a significant part of the economy. Equally important is reviving the informal economy through targeted credit access, wage support, and basic social security.
The focus must shift toward mass demand by ensuring wage hikes, creating real and secure jobs, and investing in skill development. A renewed Make in India 2.0 is essential, with serious manufacturing revival, higher infrastructure capex, rational FDI policies, and an end to tax terrorism. Finally, reducing inequality must be central to economic policy by investing in affordable housing, education, and healthcare, and by stopping the practice of designing the economy to serve only the top 1-2 percent of the population.
Question the Numbers, Demand the Truth
India’s economic story cannot be written with selective statistics and rosy projections. GDP growth without jobs, wages, and dignity is meaningless. Citizens must question power, challenge manipulated narratives, and demand accountability,just as they do on other social injustices.
Only sustained public pressure can force the government to stop hiding behind numbers and start working for the real well-being of the nation.
[MohdZiyauallah Khan is a freelance content writer and editor based in Nagpur. He is also an activist and social entrepreneur, co-founder of the group TruthScape, a team of digital activists fighting disinformation on social media.]