Red Sea Flashpoint

Wars in Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Palestine dominate the screens of satellite channels, while other conflicts of no less importance rage over the waters of the Red Sea are not drawing public attention, as they are seen as part of other conflicts.

The Red Sea is a strategic communication node which connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. According to a recent study published by the British International Institute for Strategic Studies in its journal “Survival”, about 12% of the world’s seaborne trade, 40% of Europe’s trade with Asia and the Middle East, and 8% of seaborne oil pass through the waters of the Red Sea.

There are about 15 underwater cables pass through the waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, carrying about a third of the world’s internet traffic flows. This is why also the Red Sea and the conflicts which take place above and around it draws attention of the military leaders, strategic experts, and research centres. These conflicts have international and regional ramifications.

The Red Sea is the most prominent centre for arms and human trafficking. One in four victims of wars worldwide in 2021 was killed in one of the Red Sea countries, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.

Therefore, all are trying to enhance their presence in or near it and building naval military bases nearby. This would turn the region into an area of direct confrontation between the countries of the region.

[by Ahmad Maulana in Arabic Post]

Earthquake in Türkiye’s Opposition

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent statements about his commitment to the election date in May have created confusion in the ranks of the opposition as well. Most observers believed that the (ruling) AKP would be forced to postpone the elections after the devastating earthquake which hit large parts of the south of the country.  Although it is still possible, Erdoğan’s insistence on the original date tightens his grip on them (the opposition), particularly after the recent battle and the withdrawal of MeralAksener from the fight.

The opposition has failed to manage a table of 6 seats, so how we can believe that it can manage a country with more than 85 million citizens? In fact, there are no common factors at all between the opposition parties except the desire to overthrow Erdoğan, which means that even if they succeed in achieving this goal, they will not be able to rule the country.

If we assume that the opposition succeeds in ousting Erdoğan despite its divisions, we will face two possible scenarios: The differences between the poles will be watered-down by common minimum programme. But this would mean the definite failure in the administration of the country. If these poles will agree on a formula such as equal power sharing, same as what is happening in the failed states in the neighbourhood of Türkiye, it will destroy what is left of democracy and institutions of the state.

[by Ali Bakeer in]

Compiled and translated by Faizul Haque

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