Biden Testing Waters in Iran, Saudi Arabia
Joe Biden’s election as US president may mark as beginning of a change in America’s policies towards the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which may face largescale pressure particularly in four different areas. The cases in which the Kingdom would have to cope with American pressure are continuous Saudi intervention in war in Yemen, blockade of Qatar, issues related to human rights in the Kingdom, and liability of assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Despite all this, it is not expected that the new American administration would totally give up its relations with Riyadh. This is because it has a set of economic, political, and strategic interests in which Saudi Arabia is an important source of financial support. However, it seems that Saudi Arabia’s power cards are in the state of erosion.
In Saudi Arabia, Biden hypothesis poses real challenges, particularly in case the US returns to the nuclear deal with Iran. This will leave Saudi Arabia with difficult options. Because it means fiasco of all policies of Saudi Arabia in the region to isolate Tehran, blockade of Qatar, and putting pressure on Houthis in Yemen.
Biden administration’s relations with Riyadh will also depend on the latter’s response to the escalation of Washington’s pressure on the Kingdom on these issues. The space for manoeuvring will gradually shrink, despite Saudi Arabia’s efforts to consolidate its relations with UAE, Iraq and Egypt.
(by Amjad Ahmad Jebreel in Al Sharq Forum)
The new American administration has declared its intention that it will review all international economic sanctions imposed against Iran, agreement signed between Afghan government and the Taliban movement supported by Iran. It has also indicated that it will not return to the nuclear agreement without amending some of its provisions. This has raised questions about how Joe Biden would deal with Iran. Some of the observers are of the view that Biden is checking the pulse of Iran.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken has said: “The 2015 agreement will be a launching pad for an agreement which will cover other issues, including the missile programme and its (Iran) damaging activities in the region.” To a large extent and with some clarity, this statement means that the new US administration will not be lenient with the leaders of Iran, who were jubilant after Donald Trump left the White House. They believed that the next phase will be same as that of the Barack Obama administration.
The Gulf countries have fully absorbed the lesson they have learnt during the Obama era. Therefore, they are not prepared to put all eggs in one basket. Obama has admitted in his book “The Promised Land” that his administration had insisted on supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. This is despite the fact that Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed had advised him that in that he might lose many of his allies in the region.
(By Mohammed Khalfan Al-Sawwafi in Al Arab, London)
Compiled and Translated by Faizul Haque