Raisi as Iran’s President
Ebrahim Raisi (who won Iran’s presidential election last week) appears to have emerged from the museum in 1979. His rise to power is being seen as inappropriate for Iran’s political activity at the international arena because he is considered pollical avatar of Qasem Soleimani (a Revolutionary Guards’ commander who was killed last year).
When Raisi is in power, the talk about the Iranian interests will not be complete without a reference to the planned and imminent US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US sees Tajikistan, which has a southern border with Afghanistan, as a logistical centre to maintain a good quality intelligence presence supported militarily by drones. The main challenge was that Tajikistan is in the Iranian bloc and both the countries are in the Russian bloc. The problem seems to have been resolved by Iran’s announcement of its willingness to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
It appears that soon Pakistani Taliban will find it more difficult to communicate with their Afghan counterpart, as Tehran is close to obtaining an international tender to build a Shiite Taliban separating the two counterparts.
Iran is a “regional multiplier power,” due to its inherent possibilities and potential. Iran, in Henry Kissinger’s loose description, is a wonderful strategic piece of land.
Of course, Ibrahim Raisi, as president, will be the source of information about what is cooking in the mind of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards.
(by Massar Rady in Arabic Post)
Outcome of Erdogan-Biden Summit
The summit between US President Joe Biden and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Brussels is a major shift in the relationship between the two countries. It indicates that the two countries do not want to leave the relationship to deteriorate in a manner which has negative implications for both. This does not mean that the summit overshadowed the deep differences between the two countries on their interests in Eurasia and the Middle East.
The Turkish openness to Greece, France and Europe on the one hand, and to Egypt and Saudi Arabia on the other, would restore Turkey’s huge role in the region. This is an area which may emerge as a meeting point with the US.
There are three countries which matter to the US now. They are Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya where Turkey is playing a major role.
With the Biden administration announcing US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Turkey emerged in the scene to help settle the crisis, considering its good relationship with the various Afghan factions.
Taliban rejects any Turkish military role. But the Turkish military presence in Afghanistan and its strong relationship with Qatar may make it stronger. Here Ankara militarily complement Qatari political role. This is an area of the priority for America.
The Biden-Erdogan summit will not end all differences between the two sides. However, it may help them to end some of their differences paving the way for Turkey’s return to play a major role from East to West.
(by Hussain Abdulaziz in Arabi21)
Compiled and Translated by Faizul Haque