Gujarat Development Model: A Reality Check
Santosh Kumar
Prometheus Publishing House, Kolkata
Pages: 96
Rs 30
Year: 2014
Reviewed by MOHAMMAD NAUSHAD KHAN
In his book, Gujarat Development Model: A Reality Check, Santosh Kumar has made an objective analysis of the claims on ‘Gujarat Development Model’ with available facts and figures. His analysis has put forward that the claims made to make a buzz about development model and projection of a rosy picture of the development is far from the reality on the ground and does not in any way match with the figures and statistics available in the public domain. On the contrary, India Inc. and some publication houses are quite generous in presenting glowing pictures of the development in Gujarat for palpable reasons and vested interests.
The author, in the very beginning, has made an attempt to highlight the publicity material used before and during the campaign of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The hi-tech campaign material and machinery supported by US based public relation firm Apco Worldwide and Delhi based Mutual PR, equally supported by IT wizkids, are working overtime to brand Narendra Modi’s image as the only man committed to development and more capable than other PM hopefuls. The development stories are being hammered to make echoing effects elsewhere. But are all these rhetoric and praise-showering buttressed by the figures available and the ground reality?
With the available data from various sources, the author has either compared the Gujarat development with that in other states or has simply mentioned to make his point clear so that people can take a look of what has been claimed and what actually is the situation. Surprisingly, Gujarat’s share in the FDI kitty has been on the decline in the last three financial years, which is from 3.4 per cent in 2011 to 2.9 per cent in 2012 to 2.4 till January 2013. As per statistics from the Ministry of Corporate Affairs, in terms of capital inflow due to the creation of new private companies in 2011-12, Gujarat came only fifth behind Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamilnadu and West Bengal. In public department, Gujarat ranks 5th while in revenue receipt Gujarat is also 4th as compared to Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh.
The latest census of 2011 shows that 11 lakh homes in Gujarat still have no power source. In terms of percentage of households using electricity as their primary source of lighting, Gujarat ranks 11th as compared to other states. The Planning Commission data on energy shows that Gujarat has slipped from 2nd position to 4th position. In terms of average tariff per unit of for Agriculture, Gujarat is on 17th position and much worse than the national average. The data published by Central Statistical Organisation reveals that Gujarat stands fifth in terms of state-wise Gross State Domestic Product. According to Dr. Vidyut Joshi, economist and former VC of Bhavnagar University, the GDP growth before Narendra Modi was up to 16 per cent but during his regime in annual growth rate during 2011-12 Gujarat ranked fifth which seriously rejects the claim of highest growth rate during the Modi regime. However, in terms of per capita income, Gujarat is placed on the 9th position in the country. Another study reveals that in terms of employment, Gujarat ranks fourth in the country.
In Agriculture, which is considered to be the backbone of economy, the growth rate productivity has come down during the past two decades: it was 4.7 per cent in 1991to 2000 and went further down to 3.4 per cent in the next decade that is in between 2001 to 2010. In the same period, states like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, MP and Odisha recorded higher growth. The book also highlights bonhomie between the Modi government and corporate houses.
In social indicators, Gujarat ranks a poor 14th in the state-wise ranking of infant mortality rate and if Union Territories are included then the ranking may be at the 20th position. In literacy, Gujarat has slipped from the 17th position in 2001 to 18th position in 2011 and during Modi’s period 11 states have made better progress than Gujarat in improving literacy in the last decade. In heath sector, in terms of ranking, Gujarat occupied the fourth position from the bottom during 2005-2010 in terms of allocation for health in the state budget. The girl child ratio in the state has worsened from 964 in 2001 to 890 in 2011. In terms of poverty reduction, Gujarat stands at the 11th position and according to another report by National Family Health Survey-3 in between 2005-06 in Gujarat every second child below 5 years, every third woman and every second adolescent girl were underweight. While another report suggests that as on March 2012 every third child was underweight and in these parameters Gujarat ranks the 19th in the list of states.
Notably, in comparison to malnutrition, Gujarat stood at the 19th position while as per Global Hunger Index Policy Research Institute, Gujarat is one of the 5 hungriest states in India. In sanitation and drinking water, the figures are not very much as per the claims because as per the Economic Survey 2012-13 of the Ministry of Home Affairs Gujarat ranks at 14th position in 2001 as per the number of households having access to safe drinking water. But after 10 years of Modi’s rule, Gujarat further slipped to 15th position. In Gujarat, as per 2011 census, 52 lakh households have no toilets while over 64 lakh households do not have drinking facility. On human development index, as per the Human Development Report 2011 of the Planning Commission, Gujarat improved its HDI from 0.466 in 2000 to 0.527 in 2008 but thereafter slipped from 10th position to 11th position. The National Crimes Record Bureau statistics shows that the suicide rate in 2012 in Gujarat at 11.8 per cent was marginally higher than the national average of 11.2 per cent.
The status of Muslims in Gujarat is indeed important to note because of the claim by Modi that during his regime Muslims have prospered. The Sachar Committee has highlighted that Muslims in India are worse off than SC/STs but according to NCEAR report, Muslims in Gujarat fare even worse. In Gujarat, over 60 per cent Muslims live in urban areas and at the national level, urban Muslims are 6 per cent poorer than SC/STs. In Gujarat, they are 41 per cent poorer than their SC/ST counterparts. Muslims make up the most deprived social group in Gujarat.
The author, towards the end, has mentioned a new development index formulated by a panel led by the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. Rajan has identified Gujarat as a less developed state while states like Odhisa and Bihar as least developed while Goa, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and Kerala as relatively developed states. The panel has developed a multidimensional index of backwardness based on monthly per capita consumption expenditure, education, health, household amenities, poverty rate, female literacy, per cent of SC-ST population, urbanisation rate, financial inclusion and connectivity. Based on these parameters, Gujarat is ranked 12th in the list on this development index. The author has questioned as to how credible and inclusive is the Gujarat model.