Dr. AFROZ ALAM, Head, Department of Political Science and Director (I/C), Centre for the Study of Social Exclusion and Inclusive Policies, Maulana Azad National Urdu University (MANUU), Hyderabad. A political analyst, Dr.Afroz in an interview with MOHAMMAD NAUSHAD KHAN, said that the voters have given the signal that they can no longer be treated as stooges at the hand of the Hindutva ideologues. They have given clear signals that if they are not treated fairly on the front of governance and inclusive economic growth, they might shift the balance quickly and dramatically.
What’s your take on the Assembly Verdict in Himachal and Gujarat?
It was indeed clear that BJP would most likely get the majority to form government in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Gaining a thumping majority or thin majority was merely a question of arithmetic. The defeat of Congress in the Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections was due to the combination of factors like habitual inclination of voters to vote against the ruling party, factionalism, growing disconnect of voters with Congress, corruption charges against the incumbent government and most significantly sizable shift of Brahmin voters towards the BJP. In a word, election of Himachal Pradesh was confined to the failure of governance while Hindutva mobilisations remained in the backyard.
The certainty of BJP’s win in Gujarat had several reasons. First, since 1990s Gujarat has worked for BJP as a laboratory for unique convergence of neo-liberal policies, Hindutva nationalism and regional sub-nationalism. This laboratory was still active in the ranks and files with some normal dissensions. Thus, the much acclaimed substantive dealignment of voters from BJP was a loud noise only. Second, we must remember that Narendra Modi is the product of half a century Manthan of this corporate Hindutva and also a face of Gujarat. It is assumed that as long as he is strong, Gujarat is on the strong pedestal too on every aspect of preferences. The smart business societies of Gujaratis knew that very well. If he loses they also lose. Third, undoubtedly, there were discontents among the Gujaratis but it was largely treated as family affairs. BJP was a success in perpetuating the belief that the outsiders cannot take any benefits out of it. The message was loud and clear on the grassroots that Narendra Modi is there to take care of their grievances and if he cannot solve then others also cannot solve that. Fourth, Gujarat was not ready to trade Hindutva for some economic and political failures. BJP and its affiliated wings were clear that if that happens, the whole Hindutva edifice may get weakened. Fifth, the grassroots management of cadres by RSS, VHP and other right-wing organisations was unprecedented. They worked tirelessly for their adopted Hindutva like a war against the infidels as the hardened Muslim fundamentalists think.
Sixth, there were many angry voters but they belonged to Adivasis, Dalits and minority groups. To be precise, they alone couldn’t mar the prospects of BJP due to their irrelevance in the larger scheme of things of the electoral politics. Seventh, Narendra Modi had played all cards correctly as far as pleading the voters of Gujarat was concerned. They couldn’t find a person better than him to represent their cause. It’s too far-fetched for the Gujaratis to dump him. It would tantamount to dumping their own legacy. The message was circulated like a viral that Mr. Modi is in centre and he can give more than what the Congress can offer to Gujarat. Why would any Guajarati, who is so shrewd businessmen, make such uncalculated decision to vote out BJP? Lastly, BJP and its affiliates have managed in spiritualising the women in particular. It has affected the voting preferences of women. Interestingly, the collective identity of OBCs, Dalits, Adivasis and even Patidars have been turned patriarchal and masculine as a sizable number of their women have shown a pattern called Trans-patriarchal voting that too in favour of BJP.
What according to you was the turning point in Gujarat elections?
The utterance of the word ‘neech’ by Mani Shankar Aiyar helped the BJP a lot in provoking voters. Ironically, when Modi was being criticised, it was being taken as if not only the Hindu society but entire Gujarat was insulted. Similarly, submission of Kapil Sibbal on Ayodhya case in the Supreme Court and the reference to Pakistan’s conspiracy created fear psychosis among the champions of Hindutva brigand to shift loyalties at the last minute. We cannot deny the role of huge money invested in the second phase of Gujarat election to impress upon the voters.
What is the message of the verdict for BJP and the Congress?
The message is crystal clear. For BJP, the voters have given the signals that they can no longer be treated as stooges at the hand of Hindutva ideologues. They have given clear signals that if they are not treated fairly on the front of governance and inclusive economic growth, they may shift the balance quickly and dramatically. They have already turned the BJP’s ‘Congress-mukt Gujarat’ slogan, a superficial model of campaign. The repeated Gujarat model of development has also lost appeal among the marginalised sections of Gujarat. Similarly, the loyalties with Mr. Modi also shattered substantially. It is a warning for BJP. Repetitive use of his charisma will exhaust the electorates if the party consistently fails to deliver its herculean promises. BJP has to find the answer for the consequences of Mr. Modi’s ‘future absence’ in the electoral campaigns. In other words, BJP has to answer, ‘after Modi who’.
The Gujarat verdict has given new lease of life to the Congress party. It has become competitive with the refashioning of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress to fight the Gujarat elections on all fronts including social media. However, the party has to build its cadre at grassroots level and strengthen the base of the youth leaders, Hardik, Alpesh and Mevani to provide effective challenge to the corporate Hindutva model of BJP. It was strongly felt that Congress lacked not only in organisational base and leadership vacuum but also its urban connect. There is a need to monitor statements given by the top functionaries of the Congress to not let the other parties take a chance to use it in their favour. If lessons learnt from these challenges, then Congress will be able to give strong challenge to the citadel of Hindutva politics in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh as well besides keeping its regime in Karnataka.
In what way this verdict is going to set the political discourse for 2019 General Elections?
Undoubtedly, Gujarat election was the prelude to 2019 Parliamentary elections. The verdict has demolished the myth that Modi’s charisma is unbeatable. However, there are more assembly elections due before 2019, like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka besides those in the North-Eastern states. Non-BJP forces have to keep the discourse on economic failures of the present regime alive to effectively counter the emotional narratives of BJP.
Do you think the elevation of Rahul Gandhi as party president will help the Congress in the long run?
Of course yes. With his elevation as the President of Congress, the multiple commands in the party will be straightened. I hope there will be one line of control. Rahul Gandhi has to use this opportunity to build the grassroots party network, revive party linkages with the civil society, take timely decisions to strengthen its coalition partners and most significantly connect with women.
Do you think BJP will rely on Hindutva again and again or it will have to perform sooner or later?
In my considered view, cultural and religious emotions rather reason play a powerful role in directing the voting behaviour of people in India. It is because cultural attachments are easily generated and profoundly felt. BJP knew it better. It is not going to change its electoral strategies now. It is only its hard-core Hindutva image that has given it victory in Gujarat and other previously held elections. Hindutva will be the main factor. Ram Mandir, Kashmir and many more right-wing inventions will dominate the electoral scene in 2019 as well. However, the Central regime will come forward with certain welfare policies and economic decisions to provide a smokescreen to their rightist agenda. We have always witnessed the moments while the miseries of poor economics are forgotten during making of the political choices. It can be seen in the caste and communal prejudices which are endemic in our societies so remains narrow forms of nationalism. It manifests more while elections are due. Certainly, India is also going to face the old forms of stereotypes and political mobilisation again which can lead seeing pluralism as an evil force in highly schizophrenic fashion while polarisation the only game plan.