FATIMA TANVEER analyses the new political scenario emerging in Gujarat with almost all political parties including the BJP wooing Muslim voters, and presents how a wise and bold decision on the part of the Congress Party to field more Muslim candidates from Muslim concentration constituencies in the upcoming Assembly elections can save the state from hate-mongers.
Gujarat is witnessing new political scenario with the December 2012 assembly elections drawing nigh. All major political parties in the state are trying to woo Muslim voters and have begun the process
to identify the assembly constituencies with 15 to 30 per cent Muslim population to field Muslim candidates therefrom. And what is surprising is the state BJP, which has been so far highly allergic to fielding Muslims, is reportedly contemplating to field a few Muslim candidates in the upcoming assembly elections.
If it happens so, it will be the first time the BJP will field Muslim candidates in the assembly elections, a clear departure from its past policies of keeping distance from the second biggest religious group in the state as well as in the country. BJP sources say the Muslim candidates most likely to be fielded
are former Director General of Police (DGP) Shabbir S Khandwawala and former Additional Director General of Police (ADGP) Abdullah Ibrahim Saiyed, both having Hindu wives.
Saiyed was also fielded in 2009 Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC) elections from Muslim-concentration Sarkhej ward but lost to the Congress candidate. Ever since the report of Khandwawala being considered for electoral politics by BJP, Khandwawala is not accessible to mediapersons but Saiyed told mediapersons that he was ready to take the electoral plunge. In 2009 AMC elections, BJP had projected Saiyed as a candidate for the post of mayor. But luck did not favour him as voters from Muslim majority Sarkhej ward rejected him. Saiyed’s lack of electoral experience and his least association with the Muslim voters had contributed to his defeat.
Prior to AMC elections, BJP had experimented with Muslims by fielding more than 200 Muslim candidates in district panchayat and other local bodies elections and 160 of them were reported to have won. So, it would not be surprising if BJP under Chief Minister Narendra Modi picks up a few Muslim candidates for assembly elections as well.
Though a majority of Muslims in the state do not like BJP for its anti-Muslim stand on various issues and alleged involvement of several of its leaders and workers in anti-Muslim pogrom of 2002, Muslim political analysts say it was the lack of political alternatives to the Muslims and their political ambitions that had driven some of the local Muslim leaders in rural areas to fight local polls on BJP tickets and most of them emerged victorious.
The two-party system in Gujarat, with only BJP and Congress, had restricted the political field for Muslims. As Muslims do not support BJP because of ideological reasons, this made the Congress to take their support for granted without giving Muslims proportional benefits and representations in various political forums and local bodies which they won with Muslim support. Junagadh Municipal Corporation (JMC), where half of the corporators happen to be Muslims, does not have any Muslim in important decision-making bodies of JMC.
Modi, who has been carrying the stigma of his alleged involvement in 2002 communal riots, is making a hard bid to improve his image and show that he was not against Muslims and that Gujarati Muslims were with him. And the report of BJP fielding two Muslim candidates from constituencies with sizeable Muslim population is being seen as his latest effort to attract Muslims. In fact, his image of a hardline Hindutva leader and diehard anti-Muslim leader is coming in his way to play a role at the national level in BJP and fulfil his ambitions to become prime minister in the event of BJP-led NDA winning adequate seats to form the government at the Centre following the general elections 2014.
This is so because some of the NDA constituents like JD-U and its Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is heavily dependent on Muslim support for their political survival and hence, has emerged as a strong opponent of Modi as NDA’s prime ministerial candidate. So, Modi’s plan to field Muslim candidates in assembly elections or invitation to topi-clad Muslim men and burqa-wearing Muslim women at his Sadbhavna fasts as also at few places during the ongoing month-long Vivekanand Yuva Vikas Yatra needs to be viewed in this perspective.
JD-U, which has declared to contest elections from 50 seats in the state, has announced that they would be fielding candidates from the constituencies with some Muslim population. Its national general secretary Chandra Raj Singhvi, while addressing mediapersons, told that Muslims were natural allies of his party. He said his party had been fighting for Muslim cause inside and outside Parliament and hoped that local Muslims would extend support to JD-U, instead of the Congress, this time. He had also brought with him a senior JD-U Muslim leader from Bihar – Javed Raza – to make dent inroads among the Muslim electorates.
JD-U is also likely to cut into the Congress Party’s Adivasi votes as its state president Chhotubhai Vasava is strongly backed by its national leadership with finances and strategy. Vasava, a popular Adivasi leader, may cause immense damage to the Congress in Adivasi belt spreading over the state’s 11 out of 26 districts and Adivasis deciding the outcome of elections in 47 assembly constituencies.
Samajwadi Party, which recently came to power once again in UP with Muslim support, is also wooing Muslims and toying with the idea to field candidates from constituencies with Muslim constituencies. Its state president Surendra Yadav, hailing from Azamgarh in UP, has been very active for the last few months and plans to field candidates from all the constituencies with some Muslim presence. He wants the Gujarati Muslims to quit the Congress like they did in UP and support SP.
Mulayam Singh Yadav and chief minster-son Akhilesh Yadav will be coming for electioneering after the formal announcement and date of elections are announced by the Election Commission of India.
Lok Janshakti Party(LJP) leader Ramvilas Paswan, who took out a four-day ’yatra’ (tour) of the state from Vapi in South Gujarat bordering Maharashtra to Bhuj in the North bordering Pakistan, is also eying on Muslim votes. He specifically touched Muslim pockets during his ‘yatra’, including Godhra, that was the epicentre of 2002 communal riots.
All these developments have made Congress Party jittery as JD-U, LJP and Samajwadi Party would be harming the electoral prospects of the Congress by sharing Muslim and non-BJP votes. Though former BJP chief minister Keshubhai Patel has floated his own party – Gujarat Parivartan Party – to challenge Modi and would be cutting into the vote bank of the BJP by attracting Patel votes forming the backbone of the BJP, Congress leaders feel that whatever advantage Congress would get from Keshubhai would be offset by other secular and non-BJP political outfits jumping into the fray and damage the Congress severely.
The Congress, which did not give much weightage to the Muslims in the past, is under severe pressure this time for fielding more Muslim candidates. Though state Congress leaders say that winnability would be the only criterion for allotting tickets to candidates, Gujarat Congress Minority Cell is reported to have submitted a list of 14 seats for Muslim candidates. In 2007 elections, Congress had given tickets to five Muslim candidates and all of them had won; three from Ahmedabad city alone, one from Wankaner in Rajkot and another from Vagra in Bharuch district.
The contention of the minority leaders is that there were as many as 12 Muslim MLAs in the state assembly in 1985, and 17 before that, but their number slowly came down – which stands at five at present – owing to the Congress Party reducing the number of Muslim contestants as also the simultaneous growth of communalism since 1980s that made it difficult for the Muslim candidates to win the elections. Muslim leaders say there are several seats with substantial Muslim votes and the Muslim candidates can win if the Congress leadership effectively works to transfer the non-Muslim Congress votes to Muslim candidates. They say that while Muslims have been voting for the Congress candidates no matter to which community or caste they came from, non-Muslim Congress voters did not support the Muslim candidates resulting in the defeat of the latter. They say that if the Congress leadership expects Muslims to support it wholeheartedly, they should also simultaneously work hard to ensure that non-Muslim Congress votes went to the Muslim Congress candidates as well.
However sources say the state leadership, which was averse to giving five tickets to the Muslims even in 2007 assembly elections, is reluctant to accept the demand because it fears polarisation and BJP benefitting from it. But the Muslim leaders say it was because of the indifference of the party leadership towards Muslims that the Muslim voters had lost interest in casting votes and that reflected in the outcome of results for the Congress candidates.
The seats being demanded for Congress Muslim candidates are Jamalpur, Dariapur-Kalupur, Vejalpur, Rakhial-Bapunagar, Sidhpur, Mandvi, Bhuj, Abdasa, Veraval, Mangrol, Surat East, Vankaner, Vagra, Jambusar or Ankleshwar.