The fundamental question raised by the American–Israeli war on Iran concerns the future of security in the Arabian Gulf. Deliberations on this issue began amid bombardment, exchanges of missiles, and drone attacks. The debate is being conducted loudly, both within the region and beyond, based on the new reality imposed by military repercussions. The Gulf Cooperation Council states have found themselves in the midst of a major turmoil – neither active participants in it, yet bearing a significant share of its direct losses and the costs that will follow. This has compelled them to reassess all their calculations in a way that ensures their security and stability on sustainable foundations, while safeguarding their interests.
It is still too early to present a full accounting of the losses incurred by the GCC countries from the war, but the figures confirm that they are substantial on the economic level – particularly the damage to infrastructure such as airports, ports, and oil and gas facilities. More importantly, some of these states have felt that their very existence is threatened, that their future is unclear, and that their fate is tied to the outcome of the conflict. Without exaggeration, the current Gulf moment is among the most significant in the region’s history, resembling in some ways the period of state formation and the building of political entities. The people of the Arabian Gulf now face challenges they had neither anticipated nor adequately prepared for. Although they have managed to defend themselves with minimal losses, they have felt an intense and pressing need to fortify their countries and protect their independence by relying on themselves, rather than placing bets on any external party, regardless of its strength.
An important lesson can be drawn from the first month of the war: the urgent need to reassess the foundations upon which the security of the GCC states has been built – primarily their military and security alliances with the US and certain Western countries such as France and Britain. There is a pressing need to evaluate these arrangements in light of the role played by allies in helping these states defend their security and interests after being subjected to Iranian attacks, justified by claims that some of these countries are partners in the war on Iran due to hosting American military bases on their soil. It is no secret that there is a sense of frustration in the Gulf toward the US, stemming from concerns about security guarantees, defence agreements with some of these states, and the effectiveness of American military bases. At the same time, there is unease regarding what appears to be a lack of strategy on the part of President Donald Trump’s administration in this war, as well as ambiguity surrounding its causes and objectives.
Some unofficial Gulf reactions, along with discussions in media and social platforms, suggest a regional inclination to place the weight of Gulf states on the table in any future negotiations related to Gulf security – rather than leaving the matter to international powers led by Washington and Tehran to determine the region’s fate. The Arabian Gulf represents a successful model in development and resource management, as well as a powerful economic force at both regional and international levels. It also occupies a strategic position along maritime routes and energy and trade corridors. This is a difficult asset to overlook and could strengthen the position of GCCstates, enhancing their influence at the negotiating table. There are several important files related to the consequences and losses of the war and compensation for them. Among the key issues is ensuring that these states do not bear the cost of a conflict they were not party to. In both the short and long terms, energy security remains paramount,ensuring that it is excluded from the dominance of any single actor, from bargaining, coercion, or future regional and international conflicts. This is especially true for the Strait of Hormuz and other critical passages, which must not be left under the control of any one party but instead be governed by regulations agreed upon by all concerned actors.
[by Basheer Al-Baker in Al-Araby Al-Jadeed]
Compiled and Translated by Faizul Haque