As the Haryana Assembly elections approach on October 5, the state is witnessing intense political activity. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has held power for the past decade, faces mounting challenges due to anti-incumbency sentiments and a poor performance in the recent general elections.
Haryana’s political landscape is shaped by caste alliances, shifting party loyalties, and national influences. This election will be a crucial test for BJP, with opposition parties like Congress aiming to end its 10-year rule. Despite early talks, an alliance between Congress and AamAadmi Party (AAP) did not materialize, leading to a direct contest between Congress and the BJP.
Other important players include Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and JannayakJanta Party (JJP), a former BJP coalition partner now allied with AazadSamaj Party (Kanshi Ram).
Caste Dynamics and Political Shifts
Caste plays a pivotal role in Haryana’s elections, with Jats being the largest community, primarily located in Rohtak, Bhiwani, Hisar, and Gurgaon. The Punjabi biradari, with a strong presence from post-partition migration, also plays a critical role, along with a sizable Sikh population.
Traditionally, the BJP has sought to consolidate its support among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who make up about 35% of the population. However, the Jat and Scheduled Caste (SC) votes, which account for 22% and 20% of the population, respectively, are likely to swing toward Congress. In the 2019 elections, BJP’s support among Dalits dwindled, with the party losing ground in SC-designated seats.
Political analysts note that the weakening of JJP and INLD, both of which draw support from the agricultural class, has contributed to Jat consolidation behind Congress. The BJP’s decision to appoint Manohar Lal Khattar, a non-Jat, as Chief Minister in 2014 also contributed to the community’s discontent. The Congress now appears poised to gain from this shift.
BJP Faces Tough Opposition
Facing a strong anti-incumbency wave, the BJP leadership replaced Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, ahead of the assembly elections. Despite this move, the party continues to struggle, with the Congress expected to win between 50 to 65 seats, according to ground reports. Rebellion within the BJP ranks has further weakened its prospects, with prominent leaders like Ranjit Singh Chautala and MLA Lakshman Dass Napa leaving the party after being denied tickets.
Unemployment is a key issue in this election, with the Congress accusing the BJP of making Haryana the state with the highest unemployment rate in the country. The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) reported an unemployment rate of 29.2% in the state, with 64.9% of women unemployed. Thousands of Haryanvis have even traveled to war-torn countries like Russia and Israel in search of jobs, often at great personal risk.
Muslims in Haryana: Security a Key Concern
Muslims, who make up around 8-10% of Haryana’s population, are concentrated in Nuh district of the Mewat region. Their vote holds sway in about 15 assembly seats, including Muslim-dominated constituencies like Nuh, FerozpurJhirka, and Punhana. The Congress has fielded three Muslim candidates in these areas: Aftab Ahmed, Mamman Khan, and Muhammad Ilyas.
Muslims in Haryana, particularly in Nuh, face challenges. With incidents of communal violence, mob lynching, and arbitrary arrests on the rise, security has become a top priority for the community. Last year’s communal riots during the Brij Mandal Jalabhishek Yatra organized by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) further exacerbated tensions in the region.
Nuh, designated the most backward district in India by Niti Aayog in 2018, continues to struggle with lack of basic infrastructure, including inadequate healthcare, education, and water supply. Water scarcity remains a major issue, with many households relying on tankers for their daily needs. Activists have long demanded the construction of a canal to alleviate the region’s water problems, but successive governments have failed to deliver on this promise.
Economic and Social Challenges
Educational and healthcare facilities in Nuh are severely lacking. Many schools in the region are understaffed, with some operating with only one teacher. Health services are similarly inadequate, with several primary health centers lacking doctors and nurses. The region’s unemployment rate is also high, and most residents live below the poverty line.
According to activist-lawyer Mohammad Ramzan Chaudhri, successive governments have neglected the region, which remains one of the poorest in Haryana. Chaudhri emphasizes that security remains the foremost concern for the community, with incidents of mob violence and fake encounters becoming alarmingly frequent.
Deen Mohammad Mamlika, another local activist, highlighted the poor quality of midday meals provided in schools and the lack of adequate infrastructure in educational institutions. He also noted the absence of specialized medical services at the newly established medical college in Nuh.
The Road Ahead
As the election date nears, the concerns of Haryana’s Muslims, particularly in the Mewat region, remain largely unaddressed. Despite raising these issues in the state legislature, Muslim lawmakers have struggled to exert influence over the administration. With security and socio-economic challenges at the forefront, the upcoming elections will determine whether any substantial changes will be made to uplift this marginalized community.