The Strait of Hormuz has become a central strategic pressure point dominating international consultations and diplomatic efforts, amid an ongoing blockade, escalating counter-blockades, and exchanges of signals between conflicting parties. This reality reflects the fragility of the international system that emerged after World War II, especially as current geopolitical transformations accelerate.
On one hand, Iran seeks to leverage its geographic position and military capabilities to strengthen its bargaining power and impose new deterrence equations in the region, benefiting from its oversight of one of the world’s most critical maritime routes, through which roughly one-third of global oil trade passes. On the other hand, the United States continues its “maximum pressure” policy aimed at suffocating Iran’s economy, which has suffered for years from sanctions, rising inflation, currency depreciation, and declining foreign investment flows.
The Strait of Hormuz represents a vital artery for Iran’s economy, as Tehran heavily depends on oil exports passing through it. With mounting pressure and sanctions, foreign currency revenues decline, worsening economic deterioration and deepening the currency crisis. Estimates show significant daily losses due to export disruptions, alongside increasing challenges related to limited storage capacity. This could force Iran to reduce production or shut down some oil fields, potentially causing long-term damage to its production capabilities.
The consequences of escalation are not limited to directly involved parties but extend to the global economy as a whole. Energy prices rise, supply chain disruptions intensify, and anxiety in financial markets increases. These developments raise questions about the shape of the global economic system in the post-crisis phase, the ability of nations to absorb shocks and restore balance, the role of central banks in controlling inflation, and the future of the US dollar as a global reserve currency,especially amid mounting pressure on US bond markets and rising public debt levels.
Economically, the effects of tension in Hormuz have become increasingly visible, particularly in Asia and Europe. In energy-importing Asian countries such as Japan, India, and South Korea, rising oil and gas prices have increased production costs, driven inflation higher, and put pressure on local currencies. This has pushed some central banks to tighten monetary policies or intervene to maintain financial stability.
In Europe, the crisis has intensified existing inflationary pressures. Transport and industrial costs have risen, especially in import-dependent economies such as Germany and Italy. Heavy industries have been affected, and growth forecasts in several countries have declined amid ongoing uncertainty regarding energy supplies.
Globally, this has resulted in higher shipping and maritime insurance costs, increased prices of essential commodities, and noticeable volatility in financial markets,particularly in energy and currency markets. Some countries have begun reassessing their energy strategies by diversifying import sources, investing more in renewable energy, and reducing reliance on sensitive maritime routes.
In the US, rising energy prices and inflation are increasing economic pressures, which in turn affect the domestic political landscape. Recent data shows that US public debt has, for the first time since World War II, matched the size of the economy. Public debt reached $31.265 trillion, compared to a GDP of $31.216 trillion in 2025.
The risks associated with this debt level are growing, particularly with rising debt servicing costs. The US Congressional Budget Office expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 120% by 2036. These risks are not limited to the US economy alone – any potential debt crisis could trigger a global economic shock and fundamentally reshape the rules of the international economic system.
At the same time, several countries have begun preparing for the possibility of intervention aimed at ensuring maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, particularly as incidents of targeting and detaining commercial vessels increase. The US stands at the forefront of countries capable of leading such a move, alongside the UK and France, given their naval expertise and direct interests.
In Asia, countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India may play an important role due to their heavy dependence on Gulf energy imports, their advanced naval capabilities, and their direct interest in stable supply routes. China, despite its traditional caution regarding direct military involvement, may also seek to protect its commercial interests through special security or logistical arrangements.
[Al Modon]
Compiled and Translated by Faizul Haque