The Arab countries have the highest concentration of dictatorship in the world. According to the UN Arab Human Development Report of 2004, they are also among the countries with the most stifled economies. The question of democracy in the Middle East has become the renewed focus of debate throughout the region, and outside it, in the aftermath of the attacks of 11 September 2001. The West, particularly the USA, views democracy and responsible governance as long-term means to prevent terrorism. Yet the people living under oppressive regimes in the region also desire democratic reform, although this does not necessarily amount to support of US foreign policy.
In 2003 the US administration under President George W. Bush dramatically announced a fundamental shift in policy towards the region. Having previously supported conservative autocratic regimes in the name of security, now the priority was to be democracy. However, the new policy had to work under conditions created by the old. Having stifled secular and democratic developments, the USA now confronted a region where Islam had become the most significant political force.
Nevertheless, as a result of US declarations, and of the response of some local regimes to them, democracy and reform – terms rarely heard before, and even taboo, in autocratic countries – are now common parlance. Their meaning is debated in forums as diverse as traditional coffee shops and internet chat rooms, but what their significance is remains vague and ambivalent. Some consider democracy to be a Western phenomenon and thus an imposition. Others link it to indigenous Islamic principles and adapt it to suit their purposes.
However, regardless of whether the concept of democracy is ignored, rejected or accepted, the dangers of curtailing it are explosive. The UN reported in 2004 that: ‘unless Arab governments move much more quickly towards reform they could face “chaotic” social upheaval’. Indeed, it is the volatile mix of repression, disempowerment and alienation that breeds the violent extremists that the global ‘war on terror’ is seeking to fight. However, the success of Islamist movements in elections in Egypt and Palestinian territories have exposed the limits of the democratic agenda, while the obsession with security has strengthened repression by providing dictators with a pretext to clamp down on the domestic opponents, including liberal reformers.
The confluence of autocracy and Islamism produces some curious effects. It is a striking reality that in the Arab world the faces of rulers and kings are everywhere, while the faces of women are hidden and opposition movements are forced to retreat abroad. Yet gender is not the only basis of marginalization. Arab dictatorships routinely divide their population on the basis of religion, sect and tribal or ethnic belonging….
To greater or lesser degree, power throughout the region is exercised without responsibility. Endemic corruption, the absence of the rule of law, appalling human rights violations, arbitrary arrests and imprisonment without legal representation, lack of freedom of expression, organisation and assembly, and the repression of minorities and of women are basic elements of political life. The aspirations and needs of rapidly growing populations go unmet, and the gap between the ruled and the rulers is vast and widening, dissolving the trust that cements any state’s authority.
This grim picture of universal, if varied, despotism seems set in stone. However, the stone will inevitably fracture. Arab regimes not only face the challenges of globalisation but are also confronted by extraordinary demographic changes. With one-half of the population of the Gulf States under 15 years old, for example, a vast new generation is becoming an entirely new social force.
Arab leaders can still choose whether to listen to their people and develop their countries’ huge pools of human potential or face mounting violence and extremism among the alienated and underemployed young. They know that the choice is between political reform and endless confrontation and repression, a struggle that they may not win. Indeed, inaction will merely lead to further isolation from the world and risk turning a crisis of legitimacy into something far worse, such as civil war or foreign intervention. As John F. Kennedy said: “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”
Some observers argue that Arabs are not ready for democracy, because they are ill-suited to more liberal and accountable governance. In fact, there is a deep yearning for freedom, justice and greater equality. The people of the Arab countries are open to democratic reform, but it is the rulers who need to change their ways and breathe life into ossified institutions in order to ensure political accountability and provide space for suppressed minorities and women. Without such institutional space, there can be no empowerment and thus no genuine political stability….
The question for Arab dictators is how to play the game of democracy, but not necessarily by Bush’s (or now Obama’s) rules. Recognising that everything must change if everything is to stay the same, they now use the terminology of democracy for their own ends. Afraid of true participatory politics, Arab leaders rush to find magic words selected from Western models but legitimised by Islamic codes, resulting in potions formulated to pose no threat to the status quo.
Thus ‘election’ has become the region’s buzzword, with popular votes held in recent years not only in Iraq, but also in Egypt, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Iran and the smaller Gulf States, in addition to Saudi Arabia’s more timid attempt to hold partial municipal elections. However, without the commitment to constitutionalism – a balance of powers, including checks on the executive and an independent judiciary – that forms the basis of democratic political culture, these elections will do nothing to stem popular frustration.
[The present study is heavily derived from Mai Yamani’s article “The Latent Arab Democratic Revolution” in Europa Yearbook]