Today we lay underground pipes to supply oil and gas. Besides, arms and ammunition, including nuclear weapons are stockpiled in the underground depots. In the time of earthquakes, they may not be safe and aggravate the tragedy. So, those who are spreading canards about the earthquakes should take these facts into account before confusing the mass across the world. They should instead campaign for alternative mode of development, suggests Soroor Ahmed
There is no dearth of sceptics who dig out conspiracy theory within hours of the occurrence of anynatural tragedy. So, a couple of days after the massive earthquakes shook Türkiye and Syria several YouTubers swung into action and emerged with fantastic stories without waiting for detailed study to comeout. This is happening at the time when the victims need material and moral help so that they couldovercome the worst type of trauma.
Some of them jumped to the conclusion that western powers (read the United States) are behind thisdisaster. They quickly provided the reason for their argument, that is, the devastation has beencaused because Türkiye had been opposing the entry of Sweden into North Atlantic Treaty Organisation(NATO).
What these YouTubers do not know is that Incirlik, which is not far away from the quake hit region, hasan air-base operated by none else but the United States Air Force as well as Turkish Air Force. It isoccasionally used by the Royal Air Force and Saudi Royal Air Force as well. The work to build this air-base was started by the United States in 1951, that is soon after the formation of NATO.
Luckily no casualty was reported from Incirlik where more than 2,000 USAir Force personnel are based.This is besides hundreds of British and Turkish airmen. Had this place been a bit closer to theepicentre of the earthquake, the destruction would have been much more lethal and widespread as 50nuclear warheads are stored here. The US airmen would have been its immediate casualty. US sourcessaid that no major damage had been done to airbase.
Thus, the counter question is: Why will the US-led NATO trigger such powerful tremors so close to theirvery crucial air-base? Will they ever want to destroy their own base?
HISTORY OF DEVASTATIONS
Apart from this, there is another poser: Are the February 6, 2023 earthquakes the biggest ever tostrike any country in the world in the history? No doubt, the 7.8 and 7.5 earthquakes are verydevastating and caused intensive destruction. But this does not mean that they were the severest everto hit the planet. It is another thing that they were the hardest to strikeTürkiye in the last about acentury.
The strongest earthquake in recorded history was witnessed in Chile on May 22, 1960. It is estimatedthat 1,655 people died and two million were rendered homeless in the quake which measured 9.5 on theRichter scale. It needs to be understood that a few hours before the country was struck by 7.3earthquake and a day earlier on May 21 by 7.9. Thus within 36 hours three powerful tremors rocked themost quake prone region of the planet. The impact was much more than Türkiye-Syria quake now. It isanother thing that the region affected in Chile is sparsely populated.
This South American country had accounted for one-third of the world’s quakes which had measured morethan 8.5 on the Richter scale. Chile has population of less than two crore against Türkiye’s 8.5 croreand Syria 1.86 crore.
Casualty-wise too there are many earthquakes which took a much bigger toll on life. The January 23,1556 earthquake in Shanxi, China, is estimated to have killed 8,30,000 people.
According to much recent study over 1,00,000 people died immediately after the earthquake and the restperished in subsequent months because of injuries and famine. As it was virtually impossible to provideaid and treatment to the victims then the death toll mounted sharply. Experts are of the view that onmodern Richter scale the magnitude was something between 7.9 and 8.25.
In the living memory it was once again Tangshan in China which officially recorded 2,42,000 casualty.This third largest city of China was severely jolted by the earthquake of 7.8 magnitude, very much likethe one which struck Türkiye now.
However, the independent sources put the toll of this July 28, 1976 quake at around 7,00,000. Theargument is that the Communist regime suppressed the actual toll and because of censorship the wholetruth could not come out.
INDIA’S RECORD
Assam and Tibet were struck by 8.6 earthquake on August 15, 1950. The force was so powerful that itchanged the very topography of the region. At least in one place a hill was pulverised. The rubble waslater removed and it became an open field. As it was not a very densely populated area, the death tollwas around 5,000. The quake caused landslides and several rivers changed their course.
The world had in the last one century witnessed more than a dozen quakes and tsunamis which had takentoll of more than 1.5 to 2.0 lakh. But it is only in the 21st century that people have started seeingconspiracy angle into this natural calamity. In the process they miss the real issue.
It needs to be mentioned that thousands of people had died in the Gujarat earthquake of January 26,2001. Thus, India had seen quake both on its Independence Day and the Republic Day.
Since 1988 Darbhanga in Bihar, Latur in Maharashtra, Uttarkashi in Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Nepal wererocked by quakes taking a huge toll of lives. The January 15, 1934 earthquake of Bihar and Nepal took atoll of 11,000 to 12,000 lives. Muzaffarpur and Munger towns were flattened by the quake of 8.0magnitude.
CONSPIRACY THEORY?
In the modern world we have all sorts of technology and cameras to catch the tragic moments. This wasnot possible till a few decades back. So, in the past nobody in the outside world could get any idea ofthat particular crucial seconds of the earthquake. The truth is that whatever is being highlighted invarious audio-video clippings about Türkiye used to happen in the previous quakes, too. The horrificsound, lightning and blasts are nothing unusual at the time of tremors. Several visuals are doing therounds that birds were seen flying in flocks before the quake. In the past there used to be no camerato record these activities of animals. The doubters are highlighting that the latest quakes are notnatural disaster, but a man-made one.
WHY NO QUAKE WAS TRIGGERED IN AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, VIETNAM?
Now if for the sake of argument one accepts that these quakes were artificial ones because Türkiye was stallingthe entry of Sweden into NATO on the ground that the latter was supporting Kurdish ‘terror’ groups,but may one ask as to why the US could not trigger similar earthquakes in Afghanistan, Iraq orVietnam?
In all these places the US had to make humiliating retreats and suffer huge loss of lives andmaterial. In comparison to these routs the tiff over Sweden’s entry was nothing.
MODERN PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT
Instead the huge loss of lives and widespread destruction once again prompts one to make a re-look intothe pattern of development undertaken by various countries, not only Türkiye. Unlike in the past thehigh-rise structures are bound to cause much heavier casualties than the single-floor houses andhutments of the past. True engineers across the world claim that their structure can withstand evenpowerful earthquakes if proper design is adopted. But the geologists are always doubtful.
While governments, for example in India, are busy making huge dams all over the Himalayas, manygeologists keep warning them about its likely fallout in the future. The accumulation of water in thesedams in the highland further increases the possibility of quake like calamity.
If the mountains can be reduced into rubbles, there can be no hundred per cent guarantee of these damssurviving earthquakes of more than 7.5 or 8.0 Richter scale. But the governments all over the world hadthe tendency to ignore these warnings and those opposing the rampant construction boom are dubbed asanti-development.
No doubt, studies are made before constructing mega dams, big structures underground tunnels and otherengineering marvels. Yet whenever they would give in, they are bound to cause much huge loss.
Türkiye is one of the leading lights in the infrastructure development.Their reputed construction firmsare busy in various mega-projects all over the world, even in India. But they could do little to savetheir people in their own country. Now there are allegations that the engineers and contractors did notpay heed to the rules. But it was not just that. The haphazard construction, even in seismic zones arebound to wreak havoc.
There is another reason for the huge loss of lives now. Apparently, care is being taken whileconstructing the buildings, fly-overs, bridges, tunnels, etc. But unlike in the past, today we layunderground pipes to supply oil and gas. For example, there are pipelines from Iraq’s Mosul whichterminates on the Mediterranean shore in Türkiye. Oil is then shipped from there to various countries ofEurope and even further. There is every likelihood of these pipelines getting leaked and catching fire.In the quakes of the past, there was no scope for any such thing.
Besides, not only in Türkiye, but in almost all the countries of the world, arms and ammunition,including nuclearweapons are stockpiled in the underground depots. In the time of earthquakes, they maynot be safe and aggravate the tragedy. In the national interest the government in power would notdisclose this fact.
So, those who are spreading canards about the earthquakes should take these facts into account beforeconfusing the mass across the world. They should instead campaign for alternative mode of development.
What they should know is that many in the West really want such theories to spread as they would makethem more powerful than God or Allah. Thus, the conspiracy theorists are serving the purpose of thosewhom they apparently see as enemy.