The assassination of Ismael Haniyeh, who is widely popular, is a dangerous development in the course of the war which Israel has been waging on the Gaza Strip since Operation Al-Aqsa Flood of October 2023. Through this assassination, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes to increase his popularity in Israel (which is what actually happened after the two assassinations), and create an image of victory which he has been unable to achieve in the war against Gaza for ten months. He wants to use this image as a justification to continue the war in his own way until he imposes his vision for the so-called day after, or perhaps to proceed with the truce agreement proposed by US President Joe Biden in May 2024, which some of the most extremist members of his government oppose.
Haniyeh’s assassination also threatens to expand the ambit of the conflict, if Iran decides to respond to the attack which took place on its territory and resulted in the assassination of one of its most prominent guests participating in the inauguration ceremony of its new president, and if Hezbollah also decides to respond with an unusual force in retaliation of the assassinate of its leading figure Fouad Shukr.
This possibility is inevitably linked to Iran’s own calculations and its expected response to the assassination of Haniyeh. This also shows that Israel has the upper hand in the region. The Arab world in general stands as a spectator towards what is seen as Israeli rampage in the region.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has raised the question: “How can negotiations succeed when one party kills the one with which it is negotiating at the same time?” The operation seemed to Hamas to be a last attempt by Netanyahu to deal a final blow to the negotiation process. It may actually be so as reaching an agreement remains the only option. Hamas, along with the rest of the resistance factions and its popular base, has a real interest in ending the war, in light of the genocide which the Gaza Strip has been subjected to for ten months. The same applies to the rest of the regional and international parties which are wary of the expansion of confrontation and the situation getting out of control.
As for the Israelis, although Netanyahu does not seem interested in reaching an agreement, his options are limited; today, after months of failed attempts, it does not seem closer to achieving any of the objectives of the war, namely eliminating Hamas and releasing prisoners. The pressure from the street and the military establishment on Netanyahu is increasing for a truce as they feel fatigued and exhausted.
The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran may constitute a turning point in the war. It may open the door wider to a major escalation in the region if Iran (and Hezbollah) decide to respond to the major breach of its sovereignty by Israel, or it may lead to more regional and international pressure on the Netanyahu government to go in the direction of accepting the proposal presented by President Biden for a truce agreement to prevent the escalation scenario.
This approach reinforces the level of distress which many countries have begun to express regarding Israel’s behavior, which is acting like a rogue state and has begun to violate the simplest rules and norms agreed upon for waging conflicts and wars, including killing the party with which it is negotiating!
[Arab Centre for Research and Policy Studies]
Compiled and translated by FaizulHaque